Pakistan’s Military Campaign in Afghanistan Is Here to Stay

Why It Matters

The operation raises the cost of Afghan safe‑havens for anti‑Pakistan militants, reshaping regional security dynamics and pressuring the Taliban to curb support for the TTP. Continued military pressure could destabilize the fragile Afghan peace and trigger broader geopolitical involvement.

Key Takeaways

• Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab Lil Haq targeting Taliban infrastructure.
• Airstrikes and drones hit Afghan bases without ground troops.
• Taliban’s retaliatory drone attacks proved ineffective against Pakistan.
• TTP attacks in Pakistan have declined since campaign began.
• Dialogue unlikely until Taliban concedes TTP sanctuary.

Pulse Analysis

The latest Pakistani offensive marks a decisive shift from sporadic border skirmishes to a sustained, doctrine‑driven campaign. Since August 2021, Islamabad has largely relied on diplomatic pressure and limited retaliatory strikes, but Operation Ghazab Lil Haq demonstrates a willingness to employ deep‑strike capabilities—fighter jets, precision drones and long‑range artillery—to degrade the Taliban’s logistical network. By targeting arms depots, intelligence centres and even a unit tied to supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, Pakistan aims to erode the infrastructure that enables cross‑border insurgency, a strategy that reflects lessons learned from four years of costly TTP attacks.

The tactical emphasis on airpower has yielded immediate security dividends. Within weeks, Pakistani officials report a noticeable drop in TTP‑linked incidents, suggesting that the degradation of supply lines and training facilities is constraining militant operations. The Taliban’s response—sporadic drone launches and limited artillery fire—has proved insufficient to challenge Pakistan’s superior standoff assets, underscoring a stark asymmetry that may compel Kabul to reconsider its tolerance of anti‑Pakistan groups. Yet the campaign remains calibrated; Islamabad has avoided large‑scale ground incursions, signalling that its objective is to impose cost rather than pursue regime change.

Regionally, the escalation reverberates beyond the two neighbours. China’s back‑channel overtures for a ceasefire have so far been rebuffed, while the United States monitors the potential for broader destabilisation that could affect counter‑terrorism initiatives and humanitarian aid flows. If the Taliban does not deliver verifiable concessions—such as handing over TTP leadership—the conflict risks entrenching a militarised status quo, prompting further involvement from external powers seeking to safeguard their strategic interests in South‑Central Asia.