Thomas Countryman on New START Expiry and the Value of Arms Control

Why It Matters

Without a successor to New START, the U.S. risks a costly, destabilizing nuclear buildup involving Russia and China, undermining global security and fiscal prudence.

Key Takeaways

• New START expires soon, replacement urged.
• Experts call for US‑Russia negotiations, China consultations.
• Inter‑agency expertise eroded, hindering treaty work.
• Failure risks costly three‑way nuclear arms race.
• Arms control viewed as cost‑effective national security.

Pulse Analysis

The looming expiration of the New START treaty marks a critical juncture for U.S. nuclear policy. First enacted in 2010, the agreement capped deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems for both the United States and Russia, providing a framework for verification and confidence‑building. As the treaty approaches its 2026 deadline, policymakers face a narrow window to negotiate a successor that can address emerging challenges, including China’s expanding nuclear capabilities. The loss of seasoned negotiators from the State Department further complicates the process, underscoring the need for a revitalized inter‑agency team with deep expertise in arms control diplomacy.

Beyond the diplomatic mechanics, the economic stakes are substantial. Maintaining the current nuclear arsenal costs the United States roughly $100 billion annually, a figure that could rise sharply without arms‑control constraints. A renewed treaty could embed mechanisms to reduce warhead counts across the three major nuclear powers, delivering direct budgetary relief while enhancing strategic stability. Moreover, a multilateral approach that includes China would signal a shift from a bilateral U.S.–Russia focus to a broader, more inclusive framework, potentially curbing a new three‑way arms race reminiscent of Cold‑War tensions.

Strategically, arms control remains a cornerstone of national security, offering the most efficient means to mitigate nuclear risk. By establishing clear rules of the road, verification protocols, and reduction targets, treaties like New START lower the probability of miscalculation and accidental escalation. For the private sector and investors, a stable arms‑control environment translates into reduced geopolitical volatility, which supports global markets and supply chains. Consequently, swift action to replace New START not only safeguards global peace but also protects economic interests, making it a priority for both policymakers and the broader business community.