Virtual Briefing: Multilateral Arms Control After New START: Involving China and Other Nuclear-Armed States

Why It Matters

A shift toward multilateral arms control could reshape global nuclear stability and influence the credibility of the non‑proliferation regime.

Key Takeaways

• New START expired, risking U.S.-Russia nuclear buildup
• Trump seeks multilateral arms control including China
• Alleged 2020 Chinese nuclear test breaches CTBT
• Potential U.S. testing could trigger renewed arms race
• Briefing assesses implications for 2026 NPT Review Conference

Pulse Analysis

The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty on February 5 marks the first lapse in a bilateral U.S.–Russia nuclear limit in more than three decades. Without legally binding caps, both capitals face pressure to expand deployed strategic warheads, a scenario that could destabilize the long‑standing strategic balance. President Trump’s outright rejection of President Putin’s one‑year extension proposal underscores a broader shift away from the post‑Cold War arms‑control architecture. Analysts warn that the vacuum left by New START may embolden hardliners in both capitals and raise the risk of a new arms buildup.

Washington’s pivot toward a multilateral framework signals an attempt to bring China into the arms‑control conversation, but the timing is fraught with challenges. Beijing is rapidly expanding its nuclear triad, and U.S. officials allege a clandestine 2020 test that would violate the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. If those claims hold, they could justify a U.S. decision to resume testing “on an equal basis,” reigniting a dormant nuclear‑testing regime. The inclusion of China, alongside France, the United Kingdom and Russia, would require reconciling divergent doctrines, verification standards, and strategic priorities.

The upcoming 2026 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty will be the first major test of the international community’s ability to craft a collective response to these gaps. Failure to agree on new limits or verification mechanisms could erode the credibility of the NPT and embolden additional states to pursue nuclear capabilities. Conversely, a successful multilateral pact could restore momentum for disarmament, reinforce the global non‑proliferation regime, and provide a diplomatic buffer against a renewed arms race.