Welcome to 2036: What the World Could Look Like in Ten Years, According to Nearly 450 Experts

Why It Matters

These projections signal deep shifts in economic dominance, security risks, and technological disruption, forcing governments and businesses to rethink strategy and risk management.

Key Takeaways

• China expected to overtake US economically within decade
• Over 40% foresee Taiwan conflict triggering world war
• 85% predict new nuclear states, Iran leading
• 58% believe AI will reach artificial general intelligence
• Nearly half doubt NATO will exist in current form

Pulse Analysis

The Atlantic Council’s latest Global Foresight survey reveals a stark consensus among 447 experts that the international order will be reshaped by 2036. A decisive majority—58 percent—see China eclipsing the United States as the world’s leading economic engine, while the United States is expected to retain military primacy. Respondents anticipate a bipolar or multipolar system, with China‑aligned and US‑aligned blocs competing for influence. This projected shift reflects mounting trade tensions, Beijing’s aggressive industrial policies, and the United States’ domestic focus, suggesting that American firms and policymakers must prepare for a market where Chinese standards and capital dominate key sectors.

Security forecasts are equally unsettling. More than 40 percent of experts believe China will attempt to seize Taiwan, a move they identify as the most likely spark for a new world war. Simultaneously, 85 percent expect additional nuclear actors—most notably Iran and Saudi Arabia—to join the club, while 78 percent still doubt any nuclear use will occur. NATO’s future is also in doubt, with 44 percent predicting the alliance will cease to exist in its current form and a comparable share expecting a re‑engineered, less influential organization. These trends signal heightened geopolitical volatility and a pressing need for alliance reform and non‑proliferation diplomacy.

Technological change adds another layer of complexity. Over half of the surveyed futurists think artificial general intelligence will emerge by 2036, and 56 percent view AI’s overall impact as positive, though concerns about job displacement are rising. The convergence of AI breakthroughs with shifting power balances could accelerate economic competition, reshape defense capabilities, and influence information warfare. For corporate leaders and investors, the message is clear: strategic planning must integrate geopolitical risk, emerging tech trajectories, and the evolving nuclear landscape to safeguard long‑term value in an increasingly uncertain world.