U.S. and Iran Both Claim Victory in New Ceasefire

President Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran, acknowledging Tehran’s 10‑point proposal that includes a permanent role for Iran in managing traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. S. halted offensive operations, Iran continued missile launches against Israel and Gulf targets, underscoring the fragility of the truce. \n\nThe ceasefire immediately reshaped financial markets.

Oil futures slipped into the $90‑a‑barrel range, reflecting reduced war‑premium risk, while energy giants like ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell each fell more than 5%. S. futures pointed to a strong opening led by the Nasdaq. Investors also poured into Treasury securities, pushing yields lower despite a one‑month dip in the dollar.

\n\nCentral banks across the globe are watching the supply‑side shock closely. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and India’s RBI kept policy steady but warned that disrupted oil flows could quickly turn into a demand shock if supply chains remain strained. In Asia, policymakers stress pre‑emptive signaling to anchor inflation expectations, even as the shock originates from external supply constraints rather than domestic demand. The ceasefire’s durability will determine whether shipping through the Hormuz corridor normalizes, influencing global energy prices and the monetary stance of economies still vulnerable to sudden commodity price swings.