Assessing China’s Wartime Sustainment: A Conversation with Robert Greenway

Why It Matters

The analysis warns that without decisive U.S. logistics upgrades and early targeting of China’s fuel supply chain, America could face strategic defeat in a sustained conflict, reshaping defense planning and energy‑security policy.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. sustainment capacity lags behind China's projected war endurance.
• Report uses AI tools and expert review to map vulnerabilities.
• China's fuel system relies heavily on external imports, especially Iran.
• Early targeting of Chinese refineries could shorten conflict duration.
• U.S. must expand forward hardened infrastructure for fuel and ammunition.

Summary

The Heritage Foundation’s new "Operation Tidal Wave" report examines how the United States and China could sustain a protracted, 365‑day conflict, focusing on fuel and ammunition logistics. Using a year‑long simulation that combined expert judgment with more than 16,000 AI‑generated data queries and 7,000 curated sources, the study maps each side’s sustainment systems and identifies critical points of failure. The authors conclude that the United States is ill‑prepared to project and maintain joint forces over the long term, while China’s strategic petroleum reserve—about 1.3 billion barrels—allows it to keep military operations running for months even if imports are curtailed. The report highlights China’s heavy reliance on external oil, especially the 1.5 million barrels per day imported from Iran, and ranks hundreds of vulnerabilities using an intelligence‑community framework. Key excerpts note that the analysis involved roughly 40‑50 specialists, with a core team of 12, and that the methodology deliberately avoided AI‑driven analysis, using AI only for data acquisition. The authors stress that early interdiction of Chinese refineries and distribution nodes—mirroring the WWII Tidal Wave raid—could force Chinese fuel culmination below U.S. levels, shortening the conflict. For policymakers, the findings signal an urgent need to expand forward‑deployed, hardened fuel and ammunition infrastructure, accelerate logistics capabilities, and develop rapid‑strike options against China’s external fuel dependencies. The report also underscores how Middle‑East volatility, such as threats to the Strait of Hormuz, could further expose Chinese vulnerabilities and shape strategic calculations.

Original Description

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Robert Greenway joins us to discuss key findings from his new report, TIDALWAVE: Strategic Exploitation and Sustainment in a US–China Conflict. (https://www.heritage.org/tidalwave) The conversation explores China’s vulnerabilities in fuel and ammunition sustainment and how instability in the Middle East could affect PLA operations. He also discusses the risks associated with the sustainment gaps facing U.S. forces and potential steps Washington and its partners could consider to strengthen their position.

Robert Greenway is the Director of the Allison Center for National Security at The Heritage Foundation.