Does Japan Need the United States for Security?

Why It Matters

The alliance anchors Japan’s deterrence strategy and shapes broader Indo‑Pacific stability, influencing defense spending and diplomatic alignments across allied nations.

Key Takeaways

• U.S.-Japan alliance deemed essential for Japan's security
• Operation Epic Fury showcases joint NATO‑Japan coordination
• Europe monitors Indo‑Pacific moves, aligning with U.S. strategy
• No viable substitute partnership currently exists for Japan
• Alliance reinforces regional deterrence against Chinese aggression

Pulse Analysis

The United States‑Japan security pact, forged in the aftermath of World War II, continues to serve as the cornerstone of Japan’s defense architecture. While Tokyo has incrementally increased its own defense budget—projected to exceed $70 billion this fiscal year—the alliance provides critical capabilities such as extended deterrence, intelligence sharing, and forward‑deployed forces that Japan cannot replicate alone. This strategic depth is especially vital as Beijing expands its maritime footprint and North Korea accelerates missile development, creating a multi‑vector threat environment that tests Japan’s conventional and nuclear‑deterrence thresholds.

Operation Epic Fury, a large‑scale multinational exercise involving NATO members and partner nations, illustrates how Europe is actively engaging with the Indo‑Pacific security discourse. By synchronizing training scenarios, cyber‑defense drills, and logistics planning, the exercise signals a unified front that extends beyond the Atlantic. European participants view the drill as a practical demonstration of collective resolve, reinforcing the message that security challenges in East Asia are not isolated but part of a broader, interconnected threat matrix that demands coordinated responses.

Looking ahead, the durability of the U.S.-Japan alliance will shape regional power calculations. Any erosion—whether through political shifts in Washington or Tokyo’s push for greater strategic autonomy—could embolden adversaries and destabilize supply chains critical to global markets. Conversely, deepening trilateral ties with Europe and enhancing joint capabilities through exercises like Epic Fury can amplify deterrence, reassure allies, and preserve the rules‑based order that underpins international trade and investment. Stakeholders across government, industry, and academia should monitor policy developments closely, as they will dictate the future contours of security and economic stability in the Indo‑Pacific.

Original Description

“You often hear that there is no plan B for the U.S.-Japan alliance and that . . . there is no substitute for the kind of relationship that the U.S. and Japan have when it comes to really guarding against the security threats that Japan is most concerned about,” says Kristi Govella, senior adviser and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Govella joined James M. Lindsay on The President’s Inbox podcast to discuss how Europe and Japan are reacting to Operation Epic Fury.

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