Eric Ciaramella on How Europe Can Arm Ukraine

Why It Matters

European self‑reliance in supplying Ukraine could reshape NATO burden‑sharing, weaken Russia’s diplomatic leverage, and accelerate Kyiv’s path to a sustainable defense.

Key Takeaways

• Europe can fund Ukraine via joint procurement mechanisms
• NATO members consider pooled ammunition stockpiles for Kyiv
• Private European defense firms eye direct contracts with Ukraine
• Reducing US dependency limits Kremlin leverage
• Political will remains biggest obstacle for European rearmament

Pulse Analysis

Europe’s defense industrial base has matured enough to consider a direct, coordinated supply chain for Ukraine, bypassing the traditional U.S.‑centric model. Countries such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands possess surplus stockpiles and advanced manufacturing capabilities that can be mobilized through joint financing pools and shared logistics hubs. By leveraging existing European procurement frameworks, Kyiv could receive timely deliveries of artillery, air‑defense systems, and spare parts, reducing reliance on transatlantic approvals and accelerating battlefield readiness.

The proposed mechanisms involve several layers: a multilateral fund financed by EU member states, pooled ammunition and spare‑part warehouses located in Eastern Europe, and streamlined licensing for private defense firms to contract directly with Ukrainian forces. Such arrangements promise cost efficiencies and greater strategic autonomy, yet they confront fiscal constraints and divergent national risk appetites. Critics warn that without a unified political mandate, ad‑hoc deals could fragment the supply chain, while proponents argue that a “coalition of the willing” can fill the gap left by fluctuating U.S. policy.

Strategically, a European‑led rearmament effort reshapes NATO’s burden‑sharing calculus and signals to Moscow that Kyiv’s allies are prepared to sustain long‑term resistance. It also reduces Russia’s leverage in any prospective peace negotiations, as the Kremlin can no longer threaten a complete arms embargo. For policymakers, the key challenge lies in aligning budgetary commitments with rapid decision‑making processes, ensuring that Europe’s contribution becomes a credible, durable pillar of Ukraine’s defense architecture.

Original Description

Eric Ciaramella of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace returned to the show to discuss his recent article with Sophia Besch on the ways that European states can support Ukraine militarily without the involvement of the U.S. Max and Maria asked him about his piece, the funding questions behind its ideas, and Eric's overall assessment on peace negotiations with Russia.

This conversation was recorded on February 26, 2026.

"Fortress Ukraine: How a Coalition of the Willing Can Rearm Kyiv Without Washington (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/fortress-ukraine?utm_campaign=tw&utm_content=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter) ," by Eric Ciaramella and Sophia Besch (Foreign Affairs, January 2026).

"What If Trump Gets His Russia-Ukraine Deal? (https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/02/trump-russia-ukraine-deal-what-if) " by Eric Ciaramella (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 2026).