Future of U.S.-Europe Relations: A Discussion with Dr. Lawrence Freedman
Why It Matters
Eroding trust between Washington and European capitals threatens NATO’s cohesion and could force Europe to assume greater defense responsibilities, reshaping global security dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- •European leaders distrust U.S. leadership amid Trump-era rhetoric.
- •Ukraine remains central to transatlantic security calculations for Europe.
- •Europe is hedging by increasing defense spending and diversifying partners.
- •Extended nuclear deterrence faces credibility challenges without U.S. guarantees.
- •NATO cohesion endures at operational level despite political friction.
Summary
The CSIS round‑table convened Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman and former State Department adviser Elliot Cohen to assess the future of U.S.–Europe relations amid a volatile geopolitical climate. Freedman painted a bleak picture of European sentiment, noting that Trump‑era rhetoric and recent unilateral U.S. moves have eroded trust, while Ukraine continues to dominate the alliance’s security agenda. Cohen added historical depth, arguing that the transatlantic bond has always been uneven, and that the fading living memory of World War II further weakens the moral glue that once underpinned collective defense.
Both speakers highlighted concrete pressures: Europe is hedging its bets by boosting national defense budgets, pursuing greater autonomy from American military hardware, and deepening economic ties with China despite lingering strategic rivalry. The nuclear dimension proved especially fraught; without a credible U.S. extended deterrence guarantee, European powers are forced to contemplate reliance on smaller British and French arsenals, a shift that raises questions about deterrent credibility against Russia.
Freedman’s remarks about “the intense anger in Europe” and Cohen’s observation that “the alliance has always been in disarray” underscore a growing rhetorical and policy gap. Yet they also noted that day‑to‑day NATO cooperation remains robust, with member states continuing to share intelligence, conduct joint exercises, and supply conventional forces to Ukraine.
The discussion signals a pivotal moment: if political mistrust deepens, Europe may accelerate its strategic independence, reshaping burden‑sharing formulas and potentially fragmenting the alliance’s unified front. Conversely, sustained operational coordination could preserve NATO’s core deterrent function, even as the transatlantic relationship evolves.
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