Iran at a Crossroad

Why It Matters

The scale of Iran’s 2026 mass killings and ensuing war could reshape regional stability, making international engagement on self‑determination and human rights critical for preventing a humanitarian catastrophe.

Key Takeaways

• January 2026 protests resulted in 30‑35,000 Iranian deaths
• Regime labeled protesters as ‘mohareb’, justifying mass killings
• US and Israel assassinated Supreme Leader, sparking mixed reactions
• Youth resilience fuels hope for secular democratic Iran
• Potential outcomes: regime collapse or brutal retaliation, affecting region

Summary

The webinar “Iran at a Crossroad” brought together scholars Pam Akavan and Janice Stein to dissect Iran’s domestic turmoil and the broader regional war that erupted in early 2026. They traced the timeline from the January 8 mass‑killing of protesters—estimated at 30‑35,000 deaths, the deadliest episode since the 1988 executions—to the subsequent U.S. and Israeli strike that eliminated Supreme Leader Khamenei, a move that elicited both jubilation and mourning across the diaspora and within Iran.

Akavan highlighted how the regime framed demonstrators as “mohareb” (combatants of God), deploying heavy weaponry and even refrigerated trucks for bodies, effectively turning the crackdown into what she termed “Iran’s holocaust.” She noted the unprecedented scale of violence, the use of the Responsibility‑to‑Protect doctrine by dissidents, and the profound trauma experienced by families and the broader Iranian community. Janice Stein added that the war lacks a coherent strategy, warning that the conflict could either collapse the state into chaos or leave a wounded regime capable of further reprisals.

Both speakers emphasized the extraordinary resilience of Iran’s youth, many of whom risked death in the streets. Akavan described the collective grief as a unifying force that could be channeled toward a secular democratic future, while Stein warned that without international support for self‑determination, the region faces heightened sectarian instability.

The discussion underscores the urgent need for the global community to recognize Iranian aspirations, mitigate the risk of a power vacuum, and shape a post‑conflict order that prevents further mass atrocities and fosters democratic transition.

Original Description

Join Professor Payam Akhavan and Professor Janice Stein for a discussion on Iran at a crossroad, examining the ongoing war, the domestic politics of Iran, and international effects.

The session will be chaired by Professor Ron Levi of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy.

About the speakers

Payam Akhavan

Payam Akhavan, LLB (Osgoode) LLM SJD (Harvard), LLD Honoris Causa (Law Society of Ontario) OOnt FRSC, is the inaugural holder of the Massey Chair in Human Rights. Professor Akhavan is also Senior Fellow at Massey College, former Member of the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague, Associate Member of the Institut de droit international, and the former Special Advisor on Genocide to the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court.

He has published extensively on human rights and international criminal law in leading academic journals and is on the Editorial Review Board of Human Rights Quarterly. In 2017 he delivered the CBC Massey Lectures In Search of a Better World: A Human Rights Odyssey. The companion book became the top non-fiction bestseller in Canada and the subject of a CBC documentary film.

Professor Akhavan was the first Legal Advisor to the Prosecutor’s Office of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (1994-2000) at The Hague. He has also served with the UN investigating atrocities in conflict zones – including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Cambodia, Guatemala, Rwanda, and Timor Leste – and defended genocide survivors throughout the world – including the Bahá’ís of Iran, the Yazidi of Iraq, and Myanmar’s Rohingya minority.

Janice Stein

Renowned as one of Canada’s most respected national and international experts on world politics, Janice Gross Stein is the Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management and the founding Director of the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto. She is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada and a member of the Order of Canada and the Order of Ontario. She is an Honorary Foreign Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

She was the Massey Lecturer in 2001 and an inaugural Trudeau Fellow. She was awarded the Molson Prize by the Canada Council for an outstanding contribution by a social scientist to public debate. She has been awarded Honorary Doctorate of Laws by five universities around the world. In 1996, Stein became a University Professor, the highest honour the university accords its faculty.

Her research sits at the intersection of cognitive science, psychology, and international politics as she focuses on decision making and strategy. The author of eight books and more than a hundred articles, her most recent work is on the management of escalation and the psychological, institutional, and political factors that explain surprise. Her latest research focuses on the intersection of geopolitics and technology.

Ron Levi

Ron Levi is a Professor and Senior Advisor, Undergraduate Programs at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy and the Department of Sociology, and is Distinguished Professor of Global Justice. He holds a courtesy cross-appointment to the Faculty of Law, and is a Permanent Visiting Professor at the University of Copenhagen.

Ron works at the intersection of political sociology and the sociology of law. He studies two related questions: (1) responses to crime, violence, repression, and atrocities, through legal institutions, in collective memory, and across professional groups; and (2) how legal ideas are institutionally promoted across eras and political contexts, and how individuals and groups grapple with them. He directs the Global Justice Lab in the Munk School, which works with justice systems under stress