Is Cuba Next?

Why It Matters

A potential U.S.-backed regime change in Cuba could reshape Caribbean geopolitics, strain U.S.-China relations, and trigger significant security and humanitarian challenges.

Key Takeaways

• Trump predicts imminent Cuban regime collapse.
• U.S. options range from sanctions to covert action.
• Potential non‑friendly takeover raises geopolitical concerns.
• China's intelligence activity complicates U.S. strategy.
• Regional stability could be jeopardized by regime change.

Pulse Analysis

Trump’s recent pronouncement marks a stark departure from the Obama‑era policy of diplomatic engagement with Havana. By framing the Cuban government as a regime on the brink of collapse, the administration signals a willingness to deploy the full spectrum of U.S. pressure tools, from expanded economic sanctions to covert influence operations. This rhetoric resonates with a broader domestic narrative of confronting authoritarian regimes, yet it also revives Cold‑War‑style calculations that could alienate allies and embolden hard‑liners within Cuba.

Policy analysts warn that a non‑friendly takeover carries profound risks. Sanctions alone have historically failed to precipitate democratic transitions, often deepening economic hardship for ordinary citizens. Covert actions, while potentially more decisive, raise legal and ethical questions and could spark retaliatory measures from adversaries. Moreover, an abrupt power vacuum might ignite internal conflict, destabilize the Caribbean, and create a fertile ground for illicit trafficking and refugee flows, complicating U.S. regional interests.

Complicating the calculus is China’s growing intelligence footprint in Cuba, as detailed in a recent CSIS study. Beijing’s covert networks aim to secure strategic ports and surveillance capabilities, positioning Havana as a foothold near U.S. maritime approaches. This development forces Washington to consider not only the immediate goal of regime change but also the broader contest for influence in the Western Hemisphere. A coordinated strategy that balances diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and counter‑intelligence measures will be essential to mitigate Chinese leverage while preserving regional stability.

Original Description

President Trump said the Cuban government will fall “pretty soon” and “it may not be a friendly takeover.” Ryan Berg and Carrie Filipetti join Will to discuss President Trump’s goals in Cuba, his range of options, and the risks and benefits of regime change. 

• “Secretary of State Marco Rubio with John Micklethwait of Bloomberg News (https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/02/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-john-micklethwait-of-bloomberg-news) ,” U.S. Department of State, February 14, 2026. 

• Ryan Berg et al. “China’s Intelligence Footprint in Cuba: New Evidence and Implications for U.S. Security (https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-intelligence-footprint-cuba-new-evidence-and-implications-us-security) ,” CSIS, December 6, 2024.