Israel's Escalating War in Lebanon: What's at Stake?

Why It Matters

The conflict threatens to destabilize Lebanon’s sectarian equilibrium and intensify the Iran‑Israel proxy war, while the humanitarian disaster demands urgent international response.

Key Takeaways

• Hezbollah's attacks triggered massive Israeli retaliation across Lebanon.
• Over 1,000 dead, 1‑1.5 million displaced in Lebanon.
• Shia community split: ideologues vs growing anti‑Hezbollah sentiment.
• Israeli strikes now target Hezbollah finances and civilian businesses.
• Communal tensions rise as non‑Shia refuse housing to displaced.

Summary

The CSIS round‑table examined the rapid escalation of hostilities in Lebanon after Hezbollah launched drone, missile and rocket attacks on Israel on March 1, following the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader. Israel responded with a coordinated campaign targeting southern Lebanon, Beirut’s central districts and infrastructure, turning the conflict into a second front in the broader Iran‑Israel confrontation and reigniting a decades‑long rivalry. Panelists highlighted the staggering humanitarian toll: more than 1,000 Lebanese killed, roughly 3,500 injured, and an estimated 1‑1.5 million people displaced from a population of five million. Israeli operations have expanded beyond military sites to strike Hezbollah’s financial arm, Al Qard al‑Hassan, and even civilian businesses linked to the group, while the Lebanese government struggles to provide shelter, schools and basic services. Paul Salem emphasized the scale of displacement, noting families sleeping on sidewalks and in cars, while Rhonda Sleem described a fractured Shia community—about 30 % hard‑line supporters, a small anti‑Hezbollah minority, and a large, wavering middle that questions the war’s necessity. David Schenker added anecdotal evidence of non‑Shia landlords refusing to rent to displaced Shia families, underscoring rising communal friction. The discussion warned that unchecked sectarian tension could spill into broader Lebanese conflict, threatening the fragile balance among Christians, Sunnis, Druze and Shia. Regionally, the war deepens the Iran‑Israel proxy struggle, risks further Israeli incursions, and complicates international humanitarian assistance, making the trajectory of Lebanon’s crisis a critical barometer for Middle‑East stability.

Original Description

On March 1, Lebanon became a second front in the war with Iran after Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, launched rocket and drone strikes on northern Israel. Israel has responded with an expanding offensive in Lebanon that includes parts of Beirut and the Bekaa, while Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for over 280 attacks involving rockets, missiles, and UAVs, primarily targeting northern Israel and IDF forces in southern Lebanon. The war has sparked a major humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, with an estimated 1 million Lebanese forcibly displaced and nearly 1,000 people killed, including 100 children.

With the looming threat of an Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon, tentative Lebanese proposals for direct negotiations, and rising fears of renewed internal instability, Lebanon faces a rapidly deteriorating security and humanitarian situation. Where is the conflict in Lebanon heading? What are the most likely scenarios? And what is at stake for Lebanon, Israel, and the wider region if the conflict continues to intensify?

Please join the CSIS Middle East Program for a virtual panel discussion on March 19 from 11:15 a.m. to 12:15 p.m. EDT featuring Dr. Paul Salem, The Honorable David Schenker, and Dr. Randa Slim and moderated by Mona Yacoubian.

Panelist bios:

Dr. Paul Salem is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI). He previously served as MEI’s president and CEO and as vice president for international engagement. He currently resides in Lebanon.

The Honorable David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He previously served Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in the State Department.

Dr. Randa Slim is the program lead for the Middle East Program at the Stimson Center, where she focuses on Middle East security, regional conflicts, Track II Dialogues, and diplomacy.

This event is online-only and will be livestreamed on this webpage.

Questions from the audience are welcome. Submit your questions below.

This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.

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