The Future of Iran's Axis of Resistance

Why It Matters

A weakened Iran and differentiated responses among its proxies raise the risk of uncontrolled escalation, complicate U.S., Israeli, and regional policy choices, and could reshape security alignments and domestic politics across Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and beyond.

Summary

Speakers at an Iraq Initiative panel argued that Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’—Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias—no longer functions as a single, centrally managed forward-defense network but as a collection of actors pursuing divergent survival strategies. Some groups have become politically embedded at home (notably parts of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces), while others remain tightly aligned with Tehran and are escalating attacks as Iran’s regional position weakens. Hezbollah is now directly engaged with Israel, hard-line Iraqi militias have resumed strikes, and the Houthis have so far held back, reflecting varied calculations about existential risk. Panelists warned that the shifting balance could produce greater fragmentation, localized decision-making, and renewed rounds of radicalization and violence across the region.

Original Description

Experts assess the long-term impact of the Iran war on the regime, its arsenal, and its regional proxies.