Defense

What Does the United States Want From Cuba?

Carnegie Endowment
Carnegie Endowment•Mar 20, 2026

Why It Matters

Understanding the limits of U.S. pressure on Cuba informs future foreign‑policy choices, as misreading the regime’s resilience could destabilize the Caribbean and undermine American strategic interests.

Key Takeaways

  • •Trump administration intensifies "maximum pressure" on Cuba via energy cuts.
  • •Cuba faces worst economic crisis since Soviet collapse, with blackouts.
  • •Obama’s opening briefly sparked private sector growth and political optimism.
  • •Cuban state remains intact but legitimacy erodes amid rising inequality.
  • •U.S. influence limited; regime collapse unlikely without internal upheaval.

Summary

The video examines the United States’ current strategic calculus toward Cuba, focusing on the Trump administration’s renewed “maximum pressure” campaign. By leveraging its control over Venezuelan oil shipments and threatening secondary sanctions, Washington is attempting to squeeze the already fragile Cuban economy, which is enduring its deepest crisis since the 1990s.

Key data points include 14‑15‑hour daily blackouts in Havana, a western‑island power outage lasting several days, and a GDP contraction of roughly 10‑15% since the pandemic. The crisis is compounded by rising inequality, as a nascent private sector offers goods at prices beyond most citizens’ reach, eroding the regime’s legitimacy compared with the more uniform hardship of the 1990s.

Notable remarks underscore the political tone: Senator Lindsey Graham warned that “Cuba is next,” while experts compare Cuba’s trajectory to a “Haitianization” scenario, albeit without a full state collapse. The Obama era’s diplomatic opening briefly fostered private‑sector activity and a gray political space, illustrating how U.S. policy can influence Cuban internal dynamics.

The implications are clear: despite aggressive sanctions, U.S. leverage remains limited, and a regime collapse is unlikely without significant internal dissent. Policymakers must weigh whether intensified pressure will yield concessions or simply deepen humanitarian suffering, shaping broader U.S. strategy in the Caribbean and its approach to authoritarian resilience.

Original Description

For more than sixty years, Cuba’s revolutionary government has survived economic crises and sustained pressure from the United States. But today, the island may be facing its most severe test yet. Daily life is grinding to a halt, under intense economic pressure from the Trump administration. Some U.S. officials are even predicting the imminent collapse of its longstanding communist regime.
But what does the United States actually want from Cuba? What do past U.S. policies toward Cuba tell us about America's options for getting the change it seeks?
In this episode of Pivotal States, Christopher Chivvis speaks with Michael J. Bustamante, Associate Professor of History and the Emilio Bacardí Moreau Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. They discuss U.S. strategic interests in Cuba, the Trump administration’s approach toward the Island, and scenarios for the future.
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