Store Openings Slowed in 2025

Why It Matters

The modest 2025 growth signals caution among retailers, but the projected 2026 acceleration highlights shifting investment toward value‑oriented formats and opportunistic expansion into vacated prime real estate.

Key Takeaways

• 2025 openings grew 0.7%, slower than prior years
• 2026 openings projected 1.4% increase
• Beauty, off‑price, discount retailers lead growth
• Luxury and department‑store closures expected 2026
• Bankruptcies free premium sites for expanding retailers

Pulse Analysis

The Telsey Advisory Group’s latest retail outlook underscores a pivotal inflection point for brick‑and‑mortar strategies. After a near‑flat 2025 expansion—just 0.7% growth—retailers are recalibrating capital spending amid tariff pressures and lingering macro‑uncertainty. This restraint has manifested in postponed remodels and tighter store‑count targets, especially for legacy department stores that face shrinking foot traffic and rising operational costs.

Looking ahead to 2026, the forecast brightens for segments that thrive on price sensitivity and experiential appeal. Off‑price, beauty, and discount chains are poised to add roughly 1.4% more locations, capitalizing on consumer demand for value and convenience. Meanwhile, home‑goods retailers also anticipate modest gains, reflecting a broader shift toward niche categories that can leverage existing supply chains without heavy investment in large‑format stores.

Bankruptcy filings, most notably Saks Global, are reshaping the competitive landscape by releasing high‑visibility retail spaces. Surviving players—particularly off‑price and beauty brands—are eyeing these sites to secure favorable lease terms and accelerate market penetration. This dynamic creates a dual opportunity: expanding footprints for agile retailers while forcing luxury and department‑store operators to rethink their real‑estate strategies. The coming year will test which formats can translate available inventory into sustainable growth.