Venture Capital & the World It Lives In

Why It Matters

The analysis bridges headline equity gains with underlying venture‑capital dynamics, informing investors and founders about potential disconnects between public market optimism and private‑market realities.

Key Takeaways

• S&P 500 posted 35 record highs in 2025
• S&P 500 up 17% year‑to‑date
• ACWI All‑World Index up 22% YTD
• Venture‑capital outlook remains nuanced despite market rally
• Annual report will become Notion’s recurring insight series

Pulse Analysis

The 2025 equity surge, marked by 35 S&P 500 record highs and a 17% gain, paints a picture of macro‑economic resilience. Global investors also enjoyed a 22% rise in the ACWI All‑World Index, reflecting broad‑based optimism across regions and sectors. For venture capitalists, these headline numbers are encouraging, as they suggest a healthier fundraising environment and potential exits for portfolio companies. Yet, the public market rally does not automatically translate into smoother private‑market conditions, where deal flow, valuations, and liquidity can diverge sharply from public sentiment.

Delving beneath the surface, White points out that venture capital faces nuanced challenges despite the bullish backdrop. Capital allocation in later‑stage rounds may tighten as limited partners reassess risk, while early‑stage startups could encounter longer path‑to‑profitability expectations. Moreover, macro‑economic variables such as inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions continue to influence fund‑raising cycles and exit opportunities. This layered reality underscores the importance of granular market intelligence for VCs seeking to balance optimism with disciplined investment strategies.

For founders and ecosystem participants, the annual Notion report serves as a strategic compass. By contextualizing public market performance with private‑sector trends, the analysis helps entrepreneurs gauge realistic valuation expectations and timing for capital raises. Investors gain a clearer view of where capital is likely to flow and which sectors may outperform. As White commits to making this a yearly publication, stakeholders can anticipate a consistent, data‑driven lens on the tech landscape, fostering more informed decision‑making across the venture ecosystem.

Venture Capital & the world it lives in

Jos White · General Partner, Notion Capital

Every year I give a market update presentation to both our AGM and Founders Retreat. It starts at a high level and then zooms into the private markets and venture capital; the presentation tries to look across the entire tech ecosystem helping all stakeholders to better understand what is going on and what it means to them.

This is the first time that I’ve turned it into a full article and plan on doing this every year from now on.

Based on the 35 record highs in the S&P 500 during 2025, the economy looks to be in fairly good health. The S&P 500 was up 17 % for the year and markets around the world did even better with the ACWI All‑World Index up 22 %. So at a high level the economy looks fairly strong. But when you dig deeper the picture is much more nuanced.

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Report contributors

Meet the team at Notion who put this report together

• Jos White – General Partner

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