Merz Is Wrong: Why Hard Work Won’t Beat China

Key Takeaways

• China’s yuan undervalued by 15‑20% nominally
• Subsidies create 40‑60% price advantage for Chinese goods
• German productivity outpaces China but faces higher overheads
• Uncoordinated EU stance weakens bargaining power with China
• Longer hours erode domestic demand, limiting growth

Pulse Analysis

Merz’s recent remarks sparked a debate that conflates work‑life balance with national competitiveness. While German workers remain more productive per hour than many Chinese counterparts, the narrative that simply extending work hours will close the gap ignores deeper structural forces. China’s exchange‑rate policy deliberately keeps the yuan below market levels, while state‑backed subsidies lower input costs for manufacturers, generating a substantial price advantage that German firms cannot match through labor alone.

Analysts from the Rhodium Group, the German Economic Institute and the IMF estimate the yuan’s undervaluation at 15‑20% nominally, translating into a 40‑60% cost differential after accounting for inflation and industrial deflation. This price gap, compounded by lower overheads in Chinese auto and tech sectors, erodes the impact of Germany’s higher productivity. Consequently, German firms like Volkswagen face tighter margins despite superior output, and any gains from longer working weeks are quickly offset by the systemic cost advantage enjoyed by Chinese exporters.

The strategic implication is clear: Europe must respond with a unified front, aligning monetary, trade and industrial policies to counteract China’s structural subsidies and currency manipulation. Isolated national efforts risk being outmaneuvered, while coordinated action can restore a level playing field. Moreover, policies that push workers into longer hours risk shrinking domestic demand, further weakening the internal market. A holistic approach that addresses macroeconomic distortions, rather than individual labor intensity, offers the most viable path to sustainable competitiveness.