Do Markets Care About Trump’s Tariffs? | Macro Monday with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold
•February 23, 2026
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Why It Matters
Understanding the real‑time impact of Trump’s tariff strategy is crucial for investors gauging trade‑related inflation risk and sector rotation. It also signals how legal and policy shifts can quickly alter market sentiment and capital flows.
Key Takeaways
- •Supreme Court blocks EPA tariff enforcement
- •Trump may bypass Congress via executive orders
- •New 10‑15% tariffs could pressure inflation
- •Metals rally as trade uncertainty rises
- •AI investment outlook differs from dot‑com bubble
Pulse Analysis
The resurgence of Trump‑era tariffs has reignited debate over the United States’ trade posture and its ripple effects across global markets. While the Supreme Court’s injunction against the EPA’s tariff authority curtails immediate enforcement, it underscores the fragile legal foundation of many protectionist measures. Investors now weigh whether executive actions could resurrect tariffs without congressional approval, a scenario that would inject volatility into commodity pricing, supply chains, and currency valuations.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the newly announced 10‑15% duties on a swath of Chinese imports could act as a hidden tax, nudging consumer prices upward and compressing real GDP growth. Metal markets have already responded, with gold and silver rallying as safe‑haven assets amid heightened trade uncertainty. Simultaneously, the gold‑to‑bitcoin ratio offers a nuanced gauge of risk appetite, reflecting how investors balance traditional stores of value against digital alternatives when geopolitical tensions flare.
Beyond tariffs, the episode spotlights ancillary risks such as Treasury General Account liquidity strains and the broader AI investment surge. While AI capital spending mirrors the dot‑com era’s enthusiasm, analysts argue the current wave is underpinned by tangible productivity gains, differentiating it from speculative bubbles of the past. For portfolio managers, the confluence of trade policy, inflation pressures, and technology funding creates a complex backdrop that demands agile positioning and rigorous scenario analysis.
Original Description
Andreas Steno Larsen is back with co-host Mikkel Rosenvold to break down the biggest forces driving markets, from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions to President Trump’s global tariff agenda. They also dive into the latest U.S. economic data, shifting rate expectations, and what the gold-to-bitcoin ratio is signaling.
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00:00 - Sponsor
00:55 – Macro Mondays Intro: Tariff Shock & Market Reaction
03:03 – US Supreme Court Blocks EPA Tariffs: What Happens Next?
04:18 – Winners & Losers: China, EU, BRICS and Global Trade Fallout
06:15 – Can Trump Bypass Congress on Tariffs? Legal Battle Explained
08:26 – China’s Rare Earth Weaponization Risk Ahead of April Talks
11:24 – Gold, Silver & Metals Surge on Trade Uncertainty
12:32 – Do New 10–15% Tariffs Impact Inflation or GDP?
15:16 – Treasury Liquidity, TGA & $151B Refund Risk
17:06 – Will Tariffs Derail the US Economic Upswing?
19:05 – AI Progress Accelerates: Claude, Software Engineering & Automation
22:53 – AI CapEx vs Dot-Com Bubble: Why This Is Different
25:30 – Margin Debt Signals: No Speculative AI Bubble Yet
27:19 – Thematic Investing in 2026: AI, ETFs & High-Conviction Trades
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