Mining Matters: This Commodity Cycle Will Be Bigger than 2002-2007

Why It Matters

If sustained, this cycle could produce significant price appreciation and asset re-rating across miners and juniors, but persistent talent and capital gaps mean supply shortages and investment opportunities will be concentrated and risky. Policymakers and investors must deploy targeted capital and talent to avoid bottlenecks that could exacerbate inflation in critical commodities.

Summary

Veteran miner Mark Thompson argues the current commodities bull cycle could exceed the 2002–2007 boom, driven by 18 years of underinvestment in exploration and project development since the 2008 crash, rising demand from electrification and data centers, and geopolitics around critical minerals. He warns the industry faces a severe shortage of skilled geologists, engineers and finance professionals, and that meaningful new supply will be costly and slow to develop. Government capital is emerging but expertise constraints risk misallocation and delay. Thompson says materially higher commodity prices—perhaps ~50% above today—are needed to incentivize sustained exploration and a viable supply chain.

Original Description

Mark Thompson is an experienced mining investor and commodities trader who formerly worked with Trafigura and is now heading up VSA Capital as non-executive chairman and Tamar Minerals as chief executive. He also recently took a 20% stake in VSA, as he explains in this wide-ranging conversation, because he is bullish that the London mining scene is poised to make a comeback. Part of that call also involves the recent listing of Tamar Minerals in London, a company which has legacy assets in Australia, but which will now focus on assets in Cornwall and Devon. Mark tells us why the opportunity at the Wheal Vor project is so compelling, and discusses just how much tin there might still be left in Cornwall. Is a bull market underway? - yes, but not all commodities are equal. Mark ends the chat talking up tungsten.