This Commodity Cycle Will Be Bigger than 2002 to 2007

Why It Matters

A larger‑than‑historical commodity cycle could trigger a massive rally in base and critical metals, forcing investors, companies and policymakers to reassess exposure, funding strategies, and talent development.

Key Takeaways

• Commodity cycle may surpass 2002‑2007 peak, says analyst
• 18-year investment lag creates unprecedented supply deficit worldwide
• Electrification, net‑zero, data centers boost metal demand dramatically
• Critical mineral geopolitics make new projects strategically vital
• Talent shortage hampers fund allocation to commodity investments

Summary

The speaker argues that the current commodity bull market is poised to outstrip the 2002‑2007 rally, driven by long‑term structural forces rather than short‑term hype. He notes that the post‑2008 era saw an 18‑year hiatus in new project financing—a period longer than any in the past two centuries—while typical commodity cycles span only a decade or so. This investment gap has left supply severely constrained as demand accelerates.

Demand-side catalysts are especially compelling: rapid electrification, aggressive net‑zero targets, and the explosion of data‑center construction are all creating unprecedented appetite for copper, lithium, cobalt and other critical metals. Simultaneously, geopolitical competition over mineral sources is turning new mine development into a strategic priority for governments and corporations alike.

The analyst highlights two striking observations. First, “the median fund’s allocation to commodities is way less than a half percent, maybe close to zero,” underscoring the sector’s under‑exposure. Second, “the commodity in shortest supply is good people,” reflecting a talent drought in geology, mining engineering and metal‑focused finance that has persisted since the 2008 crash.

If capital begins rotating back into commodities, valuations could surge beyond current expectations, reshaping asset‑allocation models and prompting firms to invest heavily in talent pipelines. The convergence of supply scarcity, demand growth and strategic geopolitics suggests a multi‑year price rally that could redefine the metals market.

Original Description

Mark Thompson is an experienced mining investor and commodities trader who formerly worked with Trafigura and is now heading up VSA Capital as non-executive chairman and Tamar Minerals as chief executive. He also recently took a 20% stake in VSA, as he explains in this wide-ranging conversation, because he is bullish that the London mining scene is poised to make a comeback. Part of that call also involves the recent listing of Tamar Minerals in London, a company which has legacy assets in Australia, but which will now focus on assets in Cornwall and Devon. Mark tells us why the opportunity at the Wheal Vor project is so compelling, and discusses just how much tin there might still be left in Cornwall. Is a bull market underway? - yes, but not all commodities are equal. Mark ends the chat talking up tungsten.

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