This Netflix Movie Is Expected to Win 3 Oscars Despite Being Snubbed

Why It Matters

The film’s dominance in technical categories underscores Netflix’s growing clout in prestige awards and signals a shift toward streaming platforms competing with traditional studios for Oscar recognition.

Key Takeaways

• Frankenstein leads three technical Oscar categories with ~90% odds
• Director Guillermo del Toro omitted from Best Director nominations
• Makeup team won multiple guild and BAFTA awards this season
• Kate Hawley dominates costume design, far ahead of Ruth Carter
• Film holds nine Oscar nominations, expected to win three

Pulse Analysis

Netflix’s aggressive push into high‑budget original cinema has reached a new milestone with Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, a 2025 reimagining of Mary Shelley’s classic that now sits on nine Academy Award ballots. Historically, streaming services have struggled to break through the Best Picture and directing categories, yet the film’s presence signals a maturation of Netflix’s content pipeline. By securing a Best Picture nomination and multiple technical nods, Frankenstein demonstrates that the platform can marshal the resources and talent traditionally reserved for theatrical releases, reshaping the prestige landscape.

The odds from prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket place Frankenstein as a virtual lock in three craft categories—Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Costume Design—each hovering around a 90‑plus percent probability of winning. The makeup crew, led by Mike Hill, has already captured top honors at the BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice, and the Make‑Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild, while Kate Hawley’s period‑accurate costumes have swept the Costume Designers Guild and BAFTAs. Production designer Tamara Deverall and set designer Shane Vieau have similarly dominated the awards circuit, giving the film a decisive edge over rivals like Sinners.

Del Toro’s omission from the Best Director shortlist highlights a lingering bias against streaming‑originated projects, but the film’s technical triumphs may pressure the Academy to broaden its criteria. For Netflix, each Oscar win reinforces its brand as a destination for award‑worthy cinema, potentially attracting A‑list talent and larger budgets. As the 98th Academy Awards approach, Frankenstein’s expected haul of three statues could serve as a catalyst for further integration of streaming studios into the traditional Hollywood awards ecosystem.