Net Zero Fell; Visible Costs, Not Reality, Killed It
Net zero didn’t die because reality changed It died because the costs became politically visible. Electrification survives, and renewables remain central Until their full costs can no longer be ignored. https://t.co/sRbXj6lryP #EnergyTransition #NetZero #Renewables #Electricity #IEA
Congo’s Sovereignty, Not Ownership, Controls Cobalt Supply
China’s cobalt strategy assumed that owning mines guaranteed supply. Congo’s export controls show that sovereignty trumps ownership. China controls processing; Congo controls the tap. https://t.co/sBpdLF03jS #Cobalt #CriticalMinerals #China #SupplyChains #Geopolitics @ctindale
AI Growth Hits Power Grid, Not Capital, Bottleneck
The AI buildout is running into hard physical limits. Capital isn’t the constraint; power is Grids are full, turbines are sold out, and timelines don’t bend for hyperscalers. https://t.co/GNXtK2Hb8p #AI #Energy #PowerGrid #DataCenters #Infrastructure #Geopolitics
Copper Profits Depend on Long‑term Price Strength
Copper is driving miners' profits But exposure is hard to scale unless prices stay high for years Profits are hard to maintain unless supply growth fails Mega-mergers failed because sellers wanted to be paid for the future scarcity now Usual good insights from @ClydeCommods...
US Shale and SPR only Temporary Buffers for Iran Shock
U.S. shale + SPR barrels & China’s vast stockpiles will offset Iran oil disruptions, writes @ronbousso1 But shale doesn't surge on command & stockpiles are a short-lived buffer The most likely shock absorbers are a limited Iran conflict & China stepping...
Uranium Enrichment Capacity, Not Reactors, Limits Supply
Uranium enrichment is running straight into a hard physical bottleneck Enrichment capacity, not reactors, is the constraint The US is still deeply dependent on Russian enrichment https://t.co/UzZh17Lcy5 #NuclearEnergy #Uranium #EnergySecurity #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics
Oil Growth Hinges on Brent Holding $70 Level
Oil industry won’t grow unless Brent gets up to ~$70 & stays there Below that, drilling dries up and investment stalls. https://t.co/GEUV5bEdMd #OilPrices #EnergyMarkets #Brent #Permian #Production #Capex #Commodities #OilIndustry #MarketSignals
Vaca Muerta's Promise Stalls Behind Fiscal and Infrastructure Hurdles
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
Iran's Oil Loadings Hit 2018 Highs, Margins Thin
Iran is pumping and loading at near-2018 highs ahead of nuclear talks Loadings are surging, buyers are softer, and oil-on-water is piling up More leverage, more risk, thinner margins. https://t.co/AZPC1zaGls #Oil #Iran #Hormuz #Sanctions #Geopolitics #EnergyMarkets
U.S. Plant Retirements Clash With Surging Power Demand
The U.S. plans to retire ~11 GW of power plants in 2026, mostly coal & aging gas Don’t count on it. Power demand is surging faster than new generation can be brought into the grid. Renewables aren't fit for purpose except at the...
Bloomberg's Oil Glut Narrative Shows They're Six Months Late
Bloomberg is still arguing “oil glut” & saying the correlation between geopolitics in the Middle East & oil prices is "broken" How can @bbgoriginals be 6 months behind the curve & still be in the news business? #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Commodities...
Shadow Oil Fleet Stressed, Sanctions Spur Higher Prices
The shadow oil fleet isn’t gone — it’s under stress Seizures raise costs & strand barrels, but doing more against Russian & Iranian flows means higher oil prices & inflation https://t.co/P5EDN7PrRY #Oil #Sanctions #EnergySecurity #Russia #Iran #Geopolitics
Syria's Oil Output Slashed To
Syria's oil production is a zero-rounding error @NoamRaydan Current levels are roughly 100–120 kb/d. Max production before the Civil War was 400 kb/d. As you note, its heavy, sour crude must be exported to Greece or Italy b/c it has no complex...
Europe’s Gas Crunch Stems From Storage Shortage, Not LNG Scarcity
Europe’s gas problem isn’t a lack of LNG — it’s a lack of buffer, writes @seb_kennedy With storage below 32%, even hypothetical risks like Hormuz move prices fast. #TTF #LNG #EnergySecurity #GasMarkets #Geopolitics
Shale Model Unsustainable; Investors Fled in 2018
I said the shale business model could not last. Investors got that message on their own and fled in 2018 @AmbroserayRay Act out your inferiority complex elsewhere—not on my feed.
Oil Glut Myth Debunked: Sanctions Tighten Real Supply
The oil glut narrative is dying or dead A market rallying 18% YTD isn’t drowning in supply. Yes, barrels exist on paper But sanctions, disruptions, inventories & geopolitics mean they’re not available where prices are set. These views are from the @BloombergNRG article. I agree...
Iran's Survival Shift Fuels Chaos Amid China Metal Competition
Teheran now believes it's marked for death, writes @ctindale Once survival replaces strategy, restraint evaporates & chaos becomes leverage Anyone who thinks this isn’t about oil—specifically balancing China’s grip on metals—simply isn’t paying attention #Geopolitics #Iran #Deterrence #EnergySecurity #PowerPolitics #Risk #MiddleEast #StrategicStability
Trump Uses Iran Threat as Energy Leverage, Not War
War with Iran & energy dominance are unrelated IMO @AsimRiaz1978 Trump knows an Iran strike risks an oil spike & voter blowback at the pump. That's why I think the buildup & a strike are coercive leverage, not a plan...
Houston Firm Acquires Oil Assets via Concho, Shell Deals
"The oil and gas holdings in question were acquired by the Houston-based company through previous transactions involving Concho Resources and Shell, according to the report," @geolsubho https://t.co/OlyZeu35Mu
Brent Spreads Widen Sharply as Front‑month Jumps
Where's the Glut? Brent 12-month spread widened $1.79 (52%) 6-month spread widened $0.68 (30%) for the week ending February 20 Front-month price increased $4.01 from $67.75 to $71.76 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/GkGOzWLZRj
Trump's Energy Policy Failed, Wasting Oil Leverage on China
Energy dominance has been Trump’s most consequential failure @Anon1Oil No Defense Production Act. No serious incentives. No strategy. “Drill, baby, drill” turned into “die, baby, die” in the oil patch. And he’s wasted oil as leverage against China. As for telling me...
Russian Fuel Tanker to Cuba Highlights US Policy Limits
A Russian fuel tanker is heading to Cuba This is a smart move to bring Cuba's humanitarian crisis into the public view. Trump doesn’t want that but he can't do nothing about the oil. He’s boxed in. https://t.co/6TnMy2f4wv #Cuba #Sanctions #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Oil #HumanitarianCrisis #USForeignPolicy...
Conoco Exit Signals Earlier End to Permian Shale Boom
When Conoco cashes out of the Permian, it says shale’s runway is closer to over than investors assume. It also suggests that desperation for cash takes precedence over a growth story for investors. Bleak stuff for Energy Dominance https://t.co/v8EuOOFeWj #Oil #Permian #Shale #EnergyReality #PeakShale
Sanctions Cripple Cuba's Grid, Wealth Fuels Private Power
Sanctions + fuel shortages broke the Cuban grid Those with dollars self-electrify while the rest sit in the dark. Energy desperation risks deepening inequality while the broader economy deteriorates. https://t.co/xOjVSt4Eep #EnergyCrisis #Cuba #Sanctions #Solar #GridFailure
Oil Volatility Beats Fundamentals Amid Trump Risk
Markets are trading a binary Trump headline risk, says @Ole_S_Hansen Oil isn’t moving on fundamentals alone—traders are loading up on upside calls while inventories draw hard. When positioning shifts this fast, volatility is the signal, not the noise. https://t.co/Lan48DvOA7 #OilMarkets #Brent #WTI...
Oil Won’t Ride Super‑Cycle; Growth Slowdown Limits Prices
Beware of the "bull-run narrative" @Matalasdavid Oil's a risk asset unlike value commodities. It's unlikely to have a super-cycle trajectory. 👇 https://t.co/7PUYBWe4PR As economic growth slows, oil will slow. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
US NatGas Spot Prices Under Marginal Cost Post‑Vortex
U.S. Natural Gas in Post-Vortex Price Discovery: Spot Prices Below Marginal Cost $3.27 spot price was at least $1.80 less on the red curve & $0.90 less on the orange curve #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/OIY9qxNzmU
Structural Conditions Set Stage for Multi-Year Energy Bull
The STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS are right for a multi-year bull energy market, says @ericnuttall That doesn't mean it's started or that it will be a straight line back to $90-$100 oil prices. Prices will remain volatile, cyclical, and politically distorted — even...
Iran Strike Could Spike Oil Above $90, Duration Key
Iran risk is unpriceable, writes Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. No strike and oil fades to the low $60s. A strike and $90+ is immediate. What matters isn’t the spike, it’s how long the disruption lasts. #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/L6wTlG3QZf
Iran's Infrastructure Attacks Raise Oil Risk Beyond Market Assumptions
Truth from @ClydeCommods 👇 The Iran risk premium assumes a deal or a contained strike that leaves flows intact What if Iran stops playing by the “keep oil flowing” rule & targets infrastructure to force political outcomes? That tail risk is higher than...
Venezuela's Oil Revival Is Overhyped, Still Decayed
Venezuela’s oil “revival” is being wildly oversold. It’s a salvage operation. Rusted pipes, polluted lakes, broken upgraders, and legal risk everywhere. You can’t fix 20 years of decay with a few rigs & a pep talk. https://t.co/tmf2KANGJr #OilMarkets #Venezuela #EnergyReality #Sanctions #crudeoil
Confusion Over “Double Tail” Amid Oil Price Concerns
I doubt many people have any idea what you mean by “the built in double tail” or how that relates to my post on oil prices and geological fear about the Iran situation @B2Balzer
US Iran Strike Would Spark Prolonged, Global Fallout
If the US strikes Iran, it won’t be a weekend event, writes @TheMichaelEvery Retaliation risks include terror cells in Europe The broader Middle East is flammable Energy markets are rightly pricing tail risk—but the real question is duration, not ignition #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics...
LNG Exports Surpass US Domestic Gas Use, Taxpayers Fund Profits
LNG exports volumes are now higher than gas for US homes or businesses The public is subsidizing corporate oil & gas company profits. Long live Make America Great Again https://t.co/cKeIFab7A4 #NaturalGas #LNG #EnergyMarkets #ElectricityPrices #USPolitics #EnergySecurity
China Buys US LNG, Redirects It to Europe
China hasn’t stopped buying U.S. LNG It’s just not burning it at home. Long-term contracts still bind the two systems Flexible LNG markets let China arbitrage politics by diverting cargoes to Europe. Does anyone on Team Trump know this? https://t.co/CacMbcaSMk #LNG #China #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #TradeWar #NaturalGas
Power Costs, Not Tariffs, Decide Aluminum Smelter Survival
Trump tariffs couldn’t save a major U.S. aluminum smelter Smelting lives or dies on cheap, reliable power AI and data centers now outcompete metalmaking for electricity. Tariffs are the minor leagues. Energy is the big show. https://t.co/z7ZanDwxd5 #Aluminum #EnergyPolicy #Manufacturing #AI #Trade #PowerMarkets
Geopolitical Fears Add Incremental Risk Premium to Oil
Oil rallied on fear Iran headlines + Israel alerts = instant risk premium in a tight market But geopolitics don't matter. Except they do in small continuous increments that convert to a steady aggregate premium. https://t.co/6vQGj7YEmu #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #Iran #EnergySecurity #crudeoil
Libya Redirects Oil Payments From Russia to Western Traders
Libya is cutting Russia out of its oil trade Fuel imports are shifting away from Russia toward large Western traders Sanctions didn’t “punish” Libya into changing behavior. They reshaped who gets paid. https://t.co/pmKRlqgEK1 #OilMarkets #Libya #EnergyGeopolitics #Sanctions #OPEC #crudeoil
States Sue Trump Over Blocked Renewable Funding
States sue Trump administration for blocking funded renewable projects Congress approved the money. The White House froze it. Now states are daring the courts to decide if the Constitution still stands. https://t.co/rYIh7fS9kw #ClimatePolicy #Federalism #EnergyPolitics #IRA #USPolitics
U.S. Refiners Accuse Trump‑linked Scheme in Venezuelan Oil
U.S. refiners want to cut out traders & Chevron from Venezuelan crude purchases. They see the Trump setup as a RIP OFF Barrels now must move thru an elite club of approved middle men. Want to bet there's a grift component flowing to...
Data Isn't Worthless; Misinterpretations Are
I strongly disagree with your statement that "the IEA is a worthless source of any data" @carldean1960 How can data be worthless? Interpretations of data & using data to push agendas can be worthless but not the data itself
Markets Replace Climate Ambition, Accepting Risk for Profit
The podcast’s takeaway is that climate policy is becoming “pragmatic” & markets will take over from climate ambition But markets helped create the problem, and ambition never cut emissions. Calling this realism is just accepting catastrophic risk for profit @RystadEnergy #ClimateReality...
IEA’s Net‑Zero Work Supports Energy Security and Stability
Net zero & climate analysis are fully compatible with the IEA’s mission of promoting energy security, economic stability & cooperation among member states @AzizSapphire @SecretaryWright is right that IEA went too far but wrong saying that net zero was all it...
Rig Counts Mislead; Production Trends Need Context
Rig counts are a weak, context-dependent signal of future production @chigrl Fewer rigs in Russia don’t mean much after a decade of fracking conventional fields. Apply the same logic to the US and you’d wrongly conclude sanctions killed output here. #OilMarkets...
Subsidized Renewables Force Nuclear Cycling, Raising Costs
More bad news for renewables Flooding a low-growth power system with subsidized wind & solar forces nuclear plants to cycle, not run steady. That raises wear, maintenance costs & financial stress, undermining the economics of existing reactors & making new nuclear harder...
Iran Opts for Limited Concessions, Postpones Real Deal Until Post‑midterms
Tehran will trade limited, face-saving concessions because it thinks it can survive bombs better than it can survive a domestic revolt. There will be a “bridge deal” that kicks the can. The real deal comes after US mid-term elections.' https://t.co/8UhDWkB5al #Iran #Israel #US #MiddleEast...
Oil Markets See Trump’s Hawkish Talk as Theater
Iran says it has “understanding on principles” with the US That was always the most likely outcome. Trump won't risk higher oil prices into an election cycle, writes @Ole_S_Hansen The oil market correctly judges his hawkish rhetoric as theater. #oil #Brent #Iran #geopolitics...
Guyana Gains as Venezuela's Maduro Falls, Boosting Investment
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
EU's 70% Local EV Rule Risks Higher Costs, Trade Friction
The EU plans to force 70% of EVs sold in Europe to be built there Good luck requiring China to accept higher labor costs & regulatory burden. Success case: higher EV costs, slower rollout & more trade friction. Good plan https://t.co/rHXHgNgJyN #EU #EVs #industrialpolicy #protectionism...
Iran's Hormuz Drills Raise Risk Premium, Shrink Deal Space
Iran launched naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz “Maximum pressure” cuts both ways. Iran wants nuclear-only talk, while the US wants missiles and proxies too The “deal space” is small and the risk premium stays high. https://t.co/Gs9viHRneW #oil #Brent #Hormuz #Iran #geopolitics #energysecurity #OPEC...