US Lifts Iran Sanctions, Hides Oil Shock Miscalculations
The US never thought through the possibility of an oil shock before its attacks, says @BarakRavid That's why it's lifting sanctions on Iran's oil That's not strategy That's trying to hide your mistakes And Iran still gets value from those barrels one way or another even if it doesn't get cash #Iran #Trump #Oil #Sanctions #Hormuz #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #BarakRavid #MiddleEast #OOTT
Trump's Transactional View Ignores Iran's Revolutionary Reality
Trump is treating Iran like a transactional adversary when it's a revolutionary state, says @ksadjadpour After three weeks of bombing, there is no real path to normalization The best case is a return to a Cold War #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #KarimSadjadpour #Geopolitics...
Paper Brent Futures Mislead; Spot Prices Already $150
Brent futures at $110 does not mean $150 is “theater” @robin_j_brooks Spot barrels & products are already trading there. The paper market ≠ physical market Put the esoteric models in the trash & ask any oil trader what's true #Brent #Oil #SpotMarket #Futures...
Russian Terminal Hit, Damage Not as Catastrophic as Claimed
1 mmb/d Russian export terminal seriously damaged by Ukrainian drone attack @CaolanReports claim that it's been "blown up" & "will take forever to repair" are speculative click bait #Russia #Ukraine #Primorsk #Oil #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #Baltic #Drones #Geopolitics #OOTT
Singapore Jet Fuel Spike Signals System‑Wide Oil Stress
Singapore jet at $230 a barrel tells you where the stress is showing up first Jet has been ground zero, then naphtha and fuel oil, with diesel next & gasoline last The whole barrel is now under stress. It's a system-wide shock #JetFuel...
Oil Market Reset: Billion-Barrel Loss Raises Prices Permanently
The world has lost nearly a billion barrels of oil production, writes @ericnuttall They're gone for good That resets the baseline for oil prices The idea that crude just slides back to $60 once the shooting stops reflects a PROFOUND IGNORANCE about...
US Stagflation Traps Fed Amid Jobs, Energy, Debt Crisis
The US economic situation is grim & simple, writes @LynAldenContact STAGFLATION Jobs have stalled, energy prices are squeezing consumers, yields are rising, and the Fed is trapped. Debt, war, and economic weakness are feeding each other now. #LynAlden #Stagflation #Recession #Oil...
Bombing Iran Won’t Trigger Uprising, Says Analyst
The US & Israel wrongly believed bombing Iran would spark a popular uprising, writes @MarkMazzettiNYT I don't believe that. “Uprising” was a convenient fantasy that helped sell a war whose actual endgame was never credible. https://t.co/HZZi8Zp475 #IranWar #RegimeChange #Mossad #Trump #Netanyahu #MiddleEast #Strategy...
NATO Discusses Reopening Hormuz, Not Guarantees
"NATO VOWS TO REOPEN HORMUZ" is wildly overstated @DeItaone What NATO chief Mark Rutte actually said was allies are talking about ways to reopen Hormuz He added he is "absolutely convinced" they can succeed. At talking & coordinating What EU does best #NATO #MarkRutte...
SMRs Are Techno‑fantasy, Not Economically Viable Reactors
SMRs are a techno-fantasy built on a category error, writes @Dr_Keefer They are called SMALL modular reactors because they're SMALL nuclear with SMALL revenues SMRs are what happens when people mistake wishful thinking for engineering economics. #SMR #Nuclear #CCGT #Energy #PowerMarkets #EnergyTransition...
US Dominates Gas, yet Lacks LNG Shipbuilding Capacity
The U.S. is the world’s biggest natural gas producer & LNG exporter. But it still doesn’t build the large ships that carry LNG. That is a pretty good snapshot of modern America: Enormous resource strength, paired with a hollowed-out industrial base in a...
Impending LNG Shock Threatens Europe and Asia for Years
The LNG shock is about to get real The last Gulf cargoes loaded before the war are now arriving After that, Europe & Asia hit the wall This is a major structural shock that may last years https://t.co/Dw60mbEoxn #LNG #Hormuz #Qatar #Pakistan #Bangladesh #Taiwan #EnergyCrisis...
Iran's War Begins with Record‑high Liquids Output
Iran entered this war with liquids output near multi-decade highs, writes @JavierBlas The U.S. & Iran have both been major LPG/NGL export growth stories since 2020. #OilMarkets #Iran #USLNG #LPG #NGL #Energy #Geopolitics #Hormuz
Thailand Revives Retired Coal Plants as LNG Prices Surge
Thailand is restarting retired coal units because LNG got too expensive In a real crisis, transition rhetoric gives way to fuel reality. https://t.co/YD0xNKNZzI #Thailand #Coal #LNG #EnergyCrisis #PowerMarkets #Electricity #EnergySecurity #Climate
Tehran Blackouts Unverified, Not Confirmed US Strike
Blackouts in Tehran are not proof that the US has struck the city's electrical grid @JesseCohenInv It's possible but unverified. It's also well ahead of Trump's threatened 48 hours. #Iran #Tehran #Trump #Blackout #Airstrikes #Geopolitics #Misinformation #MiddleEast #Verification #BreakingNews
Nuclear Rhetoric Escalation Masks Dangerous Antisemitic Narrative
Starting with the premise that Israel should use nukes on Iran is already absurd @FurkanGozukara Then leaping to “Putin would answer with nukes” is even more absurd. That is not analysis. It is lurid escalation fantasy dressed up as an...
U.S. LNG Gains vs Gulf Instability’s Massive Blowback
Gulf insecurity can serve U.S. LNG and geopolitical interests, writes @anasalhajji This is an alternative view that should be taken seriously My take is that it goes too far in treating strategic benefit as proof of strategic design The blowback to the...
Iran's Power Peaked; No Incentive for Compromise
The problem is that Iran will never be more powerful than it is today @dshephard What’s the incentive to take anything less (especially since it doesn’t care about the Iranian people) ?
Iran's Losses Yield a Harder, Not Defeated, Adversary
Iran War: A Balanced View I did a pro-con eval of views by @ilangoldenberg & @zriboua Iran is losing militarily & economically while still winning by denying the U.S. & Israel a clean strategic success. We may be getting a weaker but...
Hormuz Tensions: Fear‑mongering Overshadows Real Energy
The Strait of Hormuz is the fuse for mass starvation This is World War III, says @Michael_Yon This is a serious situation but hyperbolic rhetoric is designed to stoke fear & panic Block the predators who sponsor this kind of garbage...
Iran Likely Fired Ballistic Missile at Israel, Not Apocalyptic Prophecy
Iran may have struck Israel with a ballistic missile The rest—“end times,” “no one will sleep,” “buckle up”— is apocalyptic BS @NowTheEndBegins Treat the event seriously. Ignore the theatrical theology. #IranWar #Israel #Media #Geopolitics #Disinformation
Houthis Threaten Dual Strait Disruption, Global Panic Looms
What if the Houthis enter the war, asks @citrinowicz ? A disruption at Bab el-Mandeb, on top of Hormuz, would turn global economic shock into panic #RedSea #Houthis #Hormuz #OilMarkets #SupplyShock #EnergySecurity #Trade #Geopolitics
Iran Crisis May Trigger Inequality Shock Through Corporate Price Gouging
Inequality shock is the next risk from the Iran crisis Shortages give dominant firms cover to raise prices, protect margins, and push the pain onto everyone else Hormuz could become not just an energy shock, but an inequality shock https://t.co/J5Rdjxc0KI #Inequality #Inflation #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis...
Power Grid Strike Would Spark Humanitarian Disaster, Not Clean Victory
Taking down Iran’s power grid would not be a clean military move, writes @ctindale t would hit water, refineries, hospitals, telecoms, transit, and industry all at once. That may weaken the state. It would also risk humanitarian collapse and damage that lasts...
Trump Can’t Count on TACO Amid Iran Hormuz Threat
TACO is not an option for Trump, writes @biancoresearch He can't leave Iran in control of Hormuz Crude won’t calm down and markets won’t recover. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Trump #Geopolitics #Macro #MiddleEast
WTI Dips to $98.32, Monday Volatility Expected
WTI futures price fell $0.39 from $98.71 to $98.32 week ending March 20 Somewhat higher price movement is likely on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/6kUedQJUDr
Oil Market Defined by Volatility, Not Direction, Amid Hormuz Closure
Extreme volatility, not price direction, is the defining feature of the oil market @ArjunNMurti Bull can become bear with the snap of a finger The longer Hormuz stays closed, the greater the risk not just to oil prices, but to demand,...
Iran's Hormuz Grip Lets Tehran Set Shipping Terms
CENTCOM says bombing Iran’s coastal missile sites “degraded” its shipping threat That train left the station when Iran took de facto control of Hormuz Now Tehran wants navigation open on its terms: tolls, leverage, gatekeeper power. The US is being...
Closing Hormuz Cuts Iran Leverage Without Oil Crisis
The US should CLOSE HORMUZ That would remove Iran’s leverage & income It would not materially worsen the oil supply crisis Time for hard strategic decisions What would Captain Kirk do? #Hormuz #Geopolitics #Oil #KobayashiMaru @acranberg @citrinowicz @gbrew24 https://t.co/uyhUtwRSvt
Oil Super‑cycle Myth Fails in Debt‑laden, Low‑growth World
Goehring & Rozencwajg's oil super-cycle has have been wrong for a decade The argument is disconnected from a debt-saturated, low-growth, war-fractured world Scarcity can spike price But it can also crush demand, trigger recession, & kill the bull case https://t.co/fOpvyVFTKH #Oil #OilMarkets #Energy #Macro #Recession...
Trump Offers $15B Iran Compensation via Oil Sanctions Lift
Trump is dangling $15 billion in compensation in front of Iran by lifting floating oil sanctions, writes @TankerTrackers This is the weirdest war ever It’s coercion, improvisation, and market panic all at once #Iran #Oil #Trump #EnergyMarkets #Sanctions
Sanctions Lift Opens Market to Months‑old Iranian Oil
Iranian barrels often spend months on the water before reaching a final buyer Lifting sanctions makes ACCESS to that supply suddenly exist, writes @gbrew24 #Iran #Oil #Sanctions #TankerTracking #EnergyMarkets
Inflation Stays Hot, Jobs Data Disappoints, Macro Unchanged
PCE, CPI & PPI were running hot even before the Iran war’s oil shock, writes @JohnFMauldin @DavidBahnsen says Feb jobs data was “surprisingly bad” Mauldin sees the familiar muddle-through story with AI capex, services & manufacturing I see an "unsurprisingly bad" macro https://t.co/EGIOgUMGxc #Inflation...
Flawed Campaign Leaves Iran Weakened yet Resilient, Hardliners Dominate
"Strategically, this campaign wasn't prepared right," says @citrinowicz "Now, Iran is weaker but it will rebuild its military capability." There's a more hardline regime that will be difficult to negotiate with. Strategically, we're losing. #Iran #Israel #IranWar #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #Strategy #Deterrence #RegimeChange #Escalation...
Hormuz: Global Economy’s Fragile Artery Exposes Thin Margins
You're right about the big picture of thin margins, structural dependence & denial @ashokdadhwal196 But Hormuz is not merely “a chokepoint.” It is the central artery of the global economy. We knew that before things overshot so much #OilMarkets #Hormuz #Geopolitics...
1‑Year Breakeven Spike Signals Stress, Not True Inflation
This is not proof that investors expect CPI above 5% @MikeDorning 1-year breakeven inflation spike is a stress gauge distorted by energy shock, liquidity, and risk premia Important signal? Yes. Clean inflation forecast? No #Inflation #Bonds #Breakevens #Oil #Markets
Gulf Oil Disruption Marks Historic, Long‑term Shock
Gulf oil and gas flows may take months or years to restore. That means this is not a temporary price spike. It's the biggest oil shock in history And it hits the heart of the global economy. https://t.co/DOP0vnh2av #OilMarkets #LNG #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar
Air Campaign Falters, War Strategy Spirals Into Escalation
Focus on Kharg Island says the air campaign has not succeeded, writes @BarakRavid It's a sign the war is not going well Escalation has replaced strategy. #IranWar #Hormuz #OilMarkets #Kharg #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/geOssDxEyT
UK Allows US Base Access as Hormuz Risks Escalate
Britain is letting the US use its bases because the war has crossed into a new phase, writes @ChrisTakushi It's not because the risks are lower It's that the cost of a long Hormuz closure now looks worse than the...
Trump's Iran Miscalculation Rivals Putin's Ukraine Blunder
Trump’s Iran miscalculation is as bad as Putin’s Ukraine mistake. The difference is that Ukraine isn't on the artery of global energy supply And it's not a terrorist state willing to destroy civilization for its ideology #IranWar #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics #SystemicRisk
China’s Resilience Disproves Collapse Forecasts; Models Need Revision
How is this new, @zriboua? The “China collapse” call has been made for decades Mostly because it doesn’t fit Western models. Yet it hasn’t broken. Maybe the model is wrong, not China. #China #Economics #Macro #Geopolitics #Trade
Lifting Iran Sanctions Would Let World Buy Oil, Not Iran
Bessent's suggestion to lift sanctions on Iranian oil is INSANE Congressman Scott Perry explains that the world gets the oil but Iran won't get paid b/c it's outside the global financial system now He's clinically INSANE #Oil #Iran #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Markets
Iran-Israel Standoff Threatens Permanent Gulf Security Collapse
Iran won’t fold & Israel won’t stop, writes @gbrew24 Gulf security is damaged, possibly permanently. There’s no organic off-ramp—only a political one, and it runs through Washington. #IranWar #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #SystemicRisk #MiddleEast https://t.co/egfbcSbtHj
US Gas Stocks Jump 52 Bcf, Price Climbs on War Fears
U.S natural gas comparative rose 52 bcf to a surplus of 16 bcf week ending March 13 Henry Hub spot price increased $0.20 to $3.19 on Gulf war supply urgency fears #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/xkTrGWwvfb
Brent May Need $175 to End Shortage, Says Currie
“Get long and buckle up,” says Jeff Currie. It took -$37 to clear oversupply during Covid Currie's "mirror image" approach indicates it may take $175 BRENT TO CLEAR THIS SHORTAGE That’s not volatility—that’s a regime shift #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis #Commodities #Macro #Supercycle
Markets Misread Recovery; Shocks Create Worse Baselines
Markets still think this snaps back. It won’t, writes @elerianm This isn’t “transitory” It’s multiple equilibria, where each shock creates a new, worse baseline. #Macro #EnergyCrisis #SystemicRisk #Markets #Oil #Geopolitics
U.S. Inventories Rise 3.7 MMbbl; Crude up, Fuels Down
U.S. comparative inventory rose 3.7 mmb for the week ending March 13 Crude C.I. rose 4.5 mmb, gasoline fell 3.6 mmb and distillate fell 1.7 mmb #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/C0YGpBqbqu
Oil Prices Differ by Quality, Not Just Location
Three “oil prices” isn’t just geography—it’s quality + refinery demand. Oman (sour, heavier) = scarce barrels complex refineries need → blowout Brent = global seaborne benchmark → war risk premium WTI = light sweet, inland → discounted #OilMarkets #Crude #Energy #WTI #Brent #Oman
Markets Are Tools of Statecraft; Manipulation Erodes Trust
Don’t manipulate oil markets—it breaks trust, writes @JavierBlas Reality is that markets are tools of statecraft Adapt Yer old road is rapidly agin’ Please get out of the new one if you can’t lend your hand For the times they are a changin’ https://t.co/fHTiisI5hk
Future Oil Supply Shifting From Hormuz to Canada
The path away from Hormuz doesn’t run through Texas It runs through Canada. Not a quick fix, but a slow shift in expectations about where future supply comes from. LINK👇 https://t.co/2f6ouGWWtL #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics #SupplyChains https://t.co/s7N92RBiUl
