Hormuz Oil Flows Too Low to Impact Markets
Bottom line on Hormuz tanker traffic The Signal: Not enough oil is moving to make a difference Whether the few making transit are sanctioned or not is noise
IRGC’s ‘Open’ Hormuz Is Extortion, Not Access
IRGC grants Hormuz permission, writes @Amena__Bakr That’s not “open.” That's a crime family extortion racket. #Hormuz #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Chokepoints #GlobalTrade #Maritime #RiskPremium https://t.co/yBGb7oTJma
Latin America's New Oil Supply Offers Marginal, Uneven Boost
Latin America's new supply matters at the margin but it's hardly a "boom for energy security" It arrives slowly, unevenly & with plenty of political uncertainty It also has substantial oil quality mismatches for refineries https://t.co/JTh0Pvf1pH @SantiagoAuFund
Backwardation Stalls Shale Drilling Despite Price Spike
Shale isn’t chasing the spike because the curve says it won’t last, writes @Ole_S_Hansen Backwardation limits hedging, so producers can’t lock in returns No price certainty, no rush to drill. #OilMarkets #Shale #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Oil Markets Misread Headlines; Actual Flow Constrained
Markets trade headlines. Reality trades barrels, notes @AlaliQasem “Open” doesn’t mean flowing—logistics, damage, and depleted inventories are the reality #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics https://t.co/ApFoZyc4l8
Ships Avoid Hormuz Despite Trump's Claim of Openness
Trump says Hormuz is open. He lies a lot. When ships approach the Strait and then turn back en masse, believe the data, not the liar. #Hormuz #Oil #Iran #Shipping #Geopolitics
Iran Still Controls Hormuz Traffic Despite Apparent Openness
Hormuz is not “open” Iran controls who moves, how fast, and at what cost. “Open” means the Strait isn’t being actively shut down—but it is still being controlled, filtered, and weaponized. https://t.co/xmJBlNnGw0
Trump's Blockade Hurts Economy, Boosts Iran without Conflict
The interim deal was reached in Islamabad @glcarlstrom Trump's blockade does Iran's work for it by disrupting oil flows & wrecking the global economy. Iran doesn't need to destroy US ships with drones and ASBMs Iran wins, Trump doesn't look like a...
US Flights Confirm Ongoing Middle East Supply Efforts
The flights are consistent with real U.S. logistics activity The escalation narrative is speculation @ProfessorPape What it clearly shows is that the US continues to supply its forces in the Middle East Duh
US Natgas Surplus Hits 64 BCF, Prices Slip
U.S natural gas comparative rose 32 bcf to a surplus of 64 bcf week ending April 3 Spot price fell $0.05 to $2.90 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/PPiqgoaIwc
WTI Inventory Dip Triggers Price Fall Despite High Yields
WTI comparative inventory reflected supply urgency over fundamentals CI decreased 11.5 mmb and price fell $1.13 week ending April 10 $104.54 was far above any previous yield curve marginal price for current C.I. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
U.S. Inventories Plunge 11.5 MMbbl, Crude Stocks Drop
The Shock Has Hit U.S. comparative inventory fell 11.5 mmb for the week ending April 10 CI for crude oil and all product stocks fell #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/RBWGgcKlEq
Cr
12.7 mmb/d is crude + refined products--not oil Crude exports were 5.2 mmb/d About 1 mmb/d more than the 2026 average
US Oil Exports Surge, but Can’t Replace Hormuz
12.7 mb/d—record U.S. exports. Impressive… but not a replacement for Hormuz. The U.S. can cushion the shock, not carry the system. #OilMarkets #USOil #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Oil Execs Warn Trump: Reopen Hormuz or Global Collapse
Oil execs tell Trump to cut the crap & get Hormuz open No Hormuz, no energy system. This is not a political game. Reopen it or the world goes down. https://t.co/Ra1U6b3vo3 #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Skepticism Grows Over Reported 4 MMb/D Oil Flow
What are the numbers for oil @Amena__Bakr ? The report sounds optimistic but I doubt flows are even 4 mmb/d
Saudi Arabia Sticks to Non‑Involvement in Iran Conflict
This is old news @RealWestern2003 Saudi Arabia's position since January has been it's not joining the war against Iran
Arab States Edge Toward Israel, Yet Strategy Remains Unclear
Middle East scholar Dalia Ziada says Arab states are moving toward Israel for defense. Maybe—but so what? The GCC isn’t funding Israel’s war, and Congress is already limiting support. If they join the fight, they're going to have to bring a strategy that...
Growth Forecasts Flawed without Energy Reality
Energy-blind economists still see ~2% growth. Tweaking quarters up and down… while ignoring the system that powers GDP. No energy, no growth. The model assumes what it should be questioning. https://t.co/glGkB0Sg9Z #EnergyBlindness #Economics #GDP #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/grFn8ddZUr
100 M L Diesel Sounds Massive—Actually Just One Day
Australia is getting 100 million liters of diesel from Brunei & Korea Sounds like a lot It's only 628,000 barrels That's about 1 day of supply
Brent’s Return to $88 Sparks False Relief
Thank God that Brent is back to $88 @zoomer_tate I guess there was nothing to worry about. Who needs oil, natural gas, fertilizer, helium and trade as long as oil prices are only $88 today? https://t.co/SNsm9nQ0gG
China's Food Security Policy Fuels Global Fertilizer Scarcity
China is prioritizing food security over producer profitability That keeps fertilizer cheap at home while exporting scarcity to global markets. China has a strategy The US hauls Bessent into a WH press conference to make false promises about $3 gas by September
US Threats to Chinese Banks Irrelevant as Iran War Persists
US letters threatening Chinese banks supporting Iran are irrelevant Unless the war with Iran drags on. That tells you all you need to know. The war with Iran is not ending soon. That has dire consequences for the global economy #Geopolitics #Iran #China #Sanctions #OilMarkets
Australia’s Fuel System Lacks Slack, Fire Exposes Supply Risk
The fire at Australia's refinery is real and significant But there’s no evidence of sabotage. The bigger issue is structural—Australia’s fuel system has almost no slack Events like this quickly turn into supply risk. @SantiagoAuFund
Uncertainty, Not Lost Barrels, Drives Market Risk
The real shock isn’t lost barrels—it’s lost certainty. Markets are pricing duration, not disruption. When no one knows how or when normal returns, risk becomes the system. Not a lot of winning in that trend.
Iran's Oil Reserves Outlast U.S. Patience and Munitions
Iran has 2 to 3 months of oil storage available. I doubt the US has 2-3 months of munitions if there's no deal & the ceasefire ends. I doubt Americans have 2-3 months of patience with inflation & rising costs. That's a...
US Crude Tanker News Is Empty War Distraction
All the talk about US crude loading tankers makes great news-cycle filler And makes proud Americans feel good (the purpose of the news cycle) It makes absolutely no difference for the war with Iran Unless this becomes a forever war That's a nice way...
Iran's Restraint Hinges on Deal; without It, Escalation Looms
The only reason Iran hasn't attacked the US blockade is because it wan't a deal. No deal and kiss the destroyers and aircraft carriers goodbye. If the US won't compromise, we're back to escalation. Remind me who has the leverage here?
China Leverages Iran to Secure Middle East Dominance
Iran is an important element of China's strategy to dominate the Middle East Its trategic ambiguity about weapons & aid to Iran preserves optionality Why do American's think agreeing with our government is the only option? Most of the world sees things differently.
Europe Must Choose Strategic Bases Without Oil or Military
What party should Europe come to ?@RecessionAlert It has no oil so not that party. It has no military so not that party. What bases does the US have covered? Which bases should Europe cover? Show evidence not a narrative. https://t.co/gEP7ozFBb0
U.S. Blockade Fuels Iran’s Shipping Disruption Strategy
The U.S. blockade is helping Iran Iran’s play: disrupt shipping, break the system. U.S. response: disrupt shipping even more. That’s not counter-strategy—it’s reinforcement. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics https://t.co/Kz2aYw9QG3
Shale Drilling Needs 18‑24‑month Price Certainty, Not Just High Oil
Higher oil price ≠ more shale drilling @WindsorSe7en What matters is 18–24 month price visibility The forward curve isn’t exactly screaming “drill”
Chinese Navy Escorting Iranian Oil Tests US Resolve
What happens if the Chinese navy escorts its purchases of Iranian oil out of the Gulf? Does the U.S. fire—or fold? That’s the risk baked into this blockade. #Oil #Geopolitics #Energy https://t.co/E9QhehmmvD
Strait Reopen Unlikely; Production Recovery Years Away
"The strait could reopen quickly "It won't, but it could," says @gbrew24 "Unwinding production cuts, though, will take weeks if not longer" I'd say re-starting production will take months to years. There's physical & reservoir damage But mostly world demand is down &...
Cheap Energy Drives Technological Innovation, Not Guarantees Future
Then learn while you're young @andrewsun_83 Innovation & technology are corpses without cheap abundant energy. Cross plot the big advances in tech with cheap fossil fuels. Learn from the past but never assume the future will be anything like it. https://t.co/p7RCR0Vnxr
Live on Mars with Elon: Tech Fanatics' Paradise
Go live on Mars with Elon @andrewsun_83 That's the land of milk and honey for insane tech fanatics
Coal-to-Liquids Remains Uneconomic and Unscalable, History Shows
Pay attention @andrewsun_83 100 years of history at all oil prices says coal-to-liquids is uneconomic. Even if it were, it can't scale. End of story. Stop beating a dead horse that decomposed and disintegrated before either of us were born.
Decades‑long Water Floods
The example cited was a limited test on a field that had not yet had a water flood @infinitelyblank The fields in Iraq have been on water flood for decades. In the best case, the wells will take weeks to months...
US Blames
Of course US treasury says China can't get oil from Iran. It's part of Trump's fake-reality propaganda machine The US is late to the party because it's been ENERGY BLIND A blockade of Iran's oil should have happened on Trump's Day 1 January...
Energy Shock Just Beginning, World Faces Unprecedented Recovery Crisis
The energy pain hasn’t hit yet—it’s just starting says @OpenSquareCap He's right but it's worse than that Even if Hormuz reopens, the world may never fully recover from this shock To find an event on this scale, you have to go back...
Analysts Lack Field Experience, Misjudge Oil Supply Solutions
Most oil analysts are amateurs with zero oil & gas operational experience That's why they think fixing Hormuz will solve the supply crisis. Have them watch a flow test on a well that's been shut in for a few weeks Or take...
China's Oil Reserves Outpace U.S., Reducing Shock Risk
China is better prepared for an oil system shock that any major power They've been planning and preparing for decades China is not immune The US is more vulnerable than China because our oil is light beer OK for a buzz but not the...
Closing Hormuz Harms All, Not Just China
Reductive nonsense @DrJStrategy I could be more strident "Closing Hormuz hurts China” is fantasy It hurts EVERYONE—starting with the system the U.S. sits at the center of You call yourself a strategist. Run your dumb idea thru a chat bot to see what an...
Iran Won't Abandon Enrichment, Missiles, or Proxies
Let's get real people Iran is not going to give up uranium enrichment, its missile program or proxy network says @citrinowicz Time to stop the wishful thinking & deal with what is--not what some political tool says might be
China’s Coal‑to‑Oil Project Too Small to Matter
China's coal to oil is physically small @gordonschuecker @FootnotesGuy It has nothing to do with war planning It's a science project because China is an oil have-not but has lots of coal It can't scale to more than a few % of...
Coal-to-Liquids: Costly, Unscalable, and Fundamentally Obsolete
Coal-to-liquids has been a failed technology for almost 100 years @LucanusLonginus It was too expensive & unscalable in a world of abundance It looks even more ridiculous in the Mad Max scenario we approach unless we come to our senses...
U.S. Oil Reliance Shows Energy Independence Is Illusion
U.S. Oil Supply: 60% Domestic, 40% Imported “Energy Independence” Is a Myth #Oil #Energy #EnergyIndependence #Geopolitics #USOil #CrudeOil #EnergySecurity https://t.co/6yh7LlchQD
Blockade Fails: Tankers Slip Through, Policy Reality Gap Grows
You're doing a great job, Brownie Day one of the “blockade” and tankers are already getting through Some even sanctioned. The gap between policy and reality is widening. #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics https://t.co/6WFpxr9cpF
IEA Warns Forced Oil Contraction Amid Record Supply Loss
IEA just confirmed it: Record supply loss, collapsing demand, inventories draining. This isn’t a price spike—it’s forced contraction. Reopen Hormuz or brace for impact. https://t.co/Svzz77tows #Oil #Energy #Geopolitics
Blockade Risks Crippling Global Oil System, Not Just Iran
The blockade is meant to break Iran—but it may break the system first, writes @TheMichaelEvery & @BenPicton1 Iran's storage fills quickly—leading to well shut-ins & potential permanent capacity loss Removing ~2 mb/d hits an already stressed system and adds to what...