U.S. Inaction on Iran’s Weapons Costs Strait Control
The US failed to do something about Iran’s mines, missiles, and fast boats last year, says @Bob_McNally A major tactical error that changed the game Now loss of The Strait is the cost of that mistake #Geopolitics #Iran #Strategy
Oil Markets Heed Flows, Not Rhetoric, for Relief
The market isn’t listening to rhetoric anymore. It’s watching flows. Until there’s real change on the water—more barrels moving, not fewer—tightness persists. Talk doesn’t ease supply. Only flows do. #OilMarkets #CrudeOil #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Shipping https://t.co/JfaJv5JqX3
Oil Futures Liquidity Vanishes After December 2026
"The back end of the curve is lying to us," says @Bob_McNally No. You’re reading noise. There’s barely any liquidity past Dec ’26—and none beyond ’27. Just because you don't understand the curve, doesn't mean it's lying #OilMarkets #Brent #Futures #EnergyCrisis #Liquidity https://t.co/PQM1225W1s
Analysts Misprice Oil Without Industry Experience
Few analysts understand how markets price oil @PodMonsieur That's because most of them have zero experience in the oil industry I can't understand why they don't just ask their chat bots to explain it to them. #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Brent #Geopolitics #Commodities https://t.co/2wSXZg7ytt
Trump Dismissed Warnings of Ammo Shortage, Pursued Doomed War
The head of the Joint Chiefs told Trump before the attacks that the US was low on munitions @thweatt_robert Trump ignored him because he thought the war would be over quickly Vance was the only one who told Trump he thought...
Saudi's Security Gamble: Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh Form New Powerhouse
If Saudi thinks Pakistan & Turkey can replace the US security umbrella… good luck with that @sadafzbaloch Throw in Bangladesh & it's a damn powerhouse. #Geopolitics #MiddleEast
Space Stays Cost $1 Million per Astronaut Daily
No one has ever lived in space. They’ve been supported by a $1 mm/d per astronaut umbilical cord to earth resources. What was the most expensive hotel you ever stayed in for a night?
Markets Price Some Risk, Await Future Oil Shock
Markets aren’t ignoring risk. They’ve already priced ~$30 of it. Inventories say $70. Spot says $99. Markets are saying: “that’s enough—for now.” Tomorrow’s price discovery can change everything—up or down. #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/wY2VzEqA6l
Analysts Claim Oil Under‑priced Even with $30 Risk Premium
Why do analysts say that oil is under-priced? $99 Q1 Brent spot priced a $30 risk premium Isn't 40% enough? #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/Yr4EiwJgjj
Russia's War Debt Burden Threatens Banking System
Russia has a financial crisis looming The Kremlin shifted war costs from the sovereign balance sheet into the banking system. Now those loans are going bad. That bill is coming due. https://t.co/PzEExkohJo
Oil Prices Reflect Cash Bets, Not Absolute Value
Oil prices are NOT too low @RKelanic Front-month Brent is for late June contracts. It’s neither right nor wrong It’s what people are willing to bet real cash $103 price includes a 20% price urgency risk premium Think about how YOU would price a...
War's Oil Loss: 1 Bn Barrels Gone Forever
The damage is already locked in, says Vitol CEO Russell Hardy Even if the war ended today, roughly 1bn barrels are gone Flows can restart, but lost production can’t be recovered. The idea that things snap back is energy-blind fantasy
Ceasefire's TACO Shock Highlights Hormuz's Market Impact
A real ceasefire would be a true TACO moment, writes @TheMichaelEvery A Suez-scale shock. Energy might dip short term, but who controls Hormuz matters more. Markets aren’t priced for either outcome. #Oil #Geopolitics #Hormuz
Low Munitions Make Iran Ground Invasion Unlikely (<5%)
A U.S. ground invasion of Iran @Mark4XX ? Low munitions weakens air war, but it makes a ground invasion even less attractive, not more. It forces narrower, slower, more indirect strategies—not a leap to boots on the ground. I put the probability...
Blockade Debate Is Theater, Aiding Iran's Oil Disruption
The blockade debate is theater. It's not working & actually helps Iran's goal to disrupt oil flows. For the U.S., the blockade saves face. Iran wants to expose the truth. The blockade itself isn’t issue—it’s the optics.
Pentagon's Ammo Shortage Limits Trump's Options, Fuels Iran Threat
The Pentagon warned Trump that US munitions were low before the strikes on Iran. Now they're at critical levels approaching depletion. Iran knows this. Trump's escalation options are narrow. That opens the door to truly terrifying alternatives. #Iran #Geopolitics #Hormuz #Strategy
US Seizure Signals Broken Order, Looming Global Conflict
The US seizing an Iranian tanker near Sri Lanka is a precedent @MarioNawfal But we’re past “precedents.” The old order is broken. Some kind of world war is developing. That's terrifying but let's start looking at what's happening with ruthless honesty. #Geopolitics #Shipping...
Trump Claims Blockade Success Despite Dozens of Bypasses
“The blockade has been a tremendous success,” Trump said. At least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it began, according to the cargo tracking group Vortexa. https://t.co/6DjDLHXXh9
Market Discounts Unseen Risks, Not Just Trump Talk
The market will discount whatever it can't see today @Flexbitcoin I wish it was Trump numb but last week's crude price swoon on nothing but Trump BS argues it's not.
Markets Expect Peace, Yet Escalation Threatens Energy Crisis
The markets have decided peace will be the outcome in the Middle East, writes @TheMichaelEvery But markets will be wrong The options are really limited IMO A fragile pause before escalation or escalation. But escalation has many faces. None averts an energy disaster. #OilMarkets...
US Must Ban Crude Exports by July Amid Storage Crisis
U.S. will have to ban crude & product exports before July, writes @HFI_Research Storage will be at operational limits by then—regardless of Hormuz Demand destruction of 11–13 mb/d is coming. The market won’t rebalance at $95. https://t.co/7pITLtH3tR #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #DemandDestruction #CrudeOil #Geopolitics
Peace Façade Hides Likely US‑Iran Escalation, Limited Options
Peering through the fog of “peace,” escalation looks likely, writes @gideonrachman Both sides think the other will crack. The US overestimates its leverage & underestimates Iran’s resilience Military options may be more limited than Trump thinks https://t.co/JHT5K4xHs6 #Geopolitics #Iran #USForeignPolicy #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis
U.S. Seeks Results, Iran Buys Time—No Quick Fix
There is no “silver bullet” with Iran, says @citrinowicz No knockout blow is coming. Iran plays for time. The U.S. plays for results. That’s the gap—and why the U.S. keeps failing. #Geopolitics #Iran #Strategy #EnergyCrisis
Hormuz Status Highlights Broken Global Energy System
Is Hormuz open or closed? Neither. It's a BROKEN global energy system You can get through the strait, but not reliably, not safely, and not at scale. The disruption is structural not temporary You can reopen a strait. Not a system. 👇 https://t.co/EMhvtItEos #Hormuz #OilMarkets #Shipping...
Trump's Energy Emergency Echoes a Long‑standing Power Crisis
Trump calls an energy emergency for electric power The problem is real but hardly new I'll be generous & say that maybe he's using the urgency of war to do the right thing https://t.co/l7j3ITBLby
Big US Fleet Doesn't Guarantee Attack; Expert Caution Needed
Largest US naval attack coming says @imetatronink But big fleet ≠ certain attack. Positioning is real. Predictions aren’t. That doesn’t make him wrong. But authoritative certainty by those without naval warfare experience makes me nervous. #Geopolitics #USNavy #Iran #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis
Indonesia's Biofuel Promises Outpace Realistic Production
Indonesia independence by July” sounds great. Biodiesel substitute is doubtful at scale. Palm oil to gasoline is experimental & nowhere near commercial scale. Policy is sprinting. Reality is crawling. Someone needs a reality check. https://t.co/MHb97ZH369 #EnergyCrisis #Biofuels #Indonesia #OilMarkets
US Overreacts to Iranian Ship Seizure, Escalates Conflict
Iran ceasefire won't survive US handling of Iranian ship seizure was over the top, says former Navy Commander @TomSharpe134 Jumping to disabling fire before a controlled boarding suggests terrible judgment or intentional escalation. #Hormuz #Maritime #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis
Asia Foreshadows Global Energy Shock, US Unprepared
Asia is the trailer for the global energy shock "You’ve seen tsunamis," says The Atlantic Council's Phillip Cornell “I find it breathtaking to see the degree to which American policymakers think that they are insulated.” https://t.co/hZtCnd3mey #EnergyCrisis #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #SupplyChains
Unverified Claim: US Suspended Funding to Iran
Unverified that US “suspended all funding and security coordination” thru Fed to Iran It's plausible but BIG CLAIMS NEED BIG CONFIRMATION @DD_Geopolitics
EIA Predicts Hormuz Crisis Will Vanish by Fall
Hormuz Crisis: Gone by Spring, Fixed by Fall says EIA “It’s going to disappear. "One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear” #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/SIU7yJyfMK
EIA's 2027 Oil Glut Forecast Is Pure Fantasy
Independent FED? How about an independent EIA? EIA Sees an oil glut in 2027 The Year Everything Magically Normalizes Brent $68 In a World That Doesn’t Exist OUTRAGEOUSLY ENERGY BLIND #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/EEhRs5OdkI
Seized Tanker Likely Transported Missile Chemicals, Not Oil
Good chance the tanker fired on and seized by the US was carrying chemicals for missiles and not oil.
CME Delay Hints at Deeper Market Liquidity Concerns
Thanks @Babyfish_TG I watch prices, but I’m not a trader—& never claimed to be. I'm a big picture guy If CME is delayed, that’s interesting Could be anything from a system hiccup to a liquidity crisis Speculating on a Sunday night is about as...
NYMEX Oil Futures Quotes Delayed After Globex Restart
Yeah @OuncesApp "Almost 5 hours since Globex trading resumed and NYMEX still isn’t broadcasting oil futures quotes and volumes" Seems to be bullshit claim by @DarioCpx Or maybe there was some delay or glitch but it's up now. https://t.co/1Lr9enzoRB
Iran Demands Payment for Hormuz Security, Echoes Trump Tactics
“Hormuz security isn’t free,” Iran says. I'd say "Hormuz security doesn't exist" But if Iran can extort some cash from tanker companies, so much the better Sounds like a Trump industry https://t.co/dY0KSweqYJ
Al Jazeera Shares Iranian Claims of Unverified Drone Attack
Al Jazeera is relaying Iranian state information It's plausible that Iranian drones attacked a US blockade ship but not verified.
Trump Claims Deal Near; Iran Denies Any Talks
Trump says a deal is almost done Iran says it never agreed to talk https://t.co/H0jEhPmqRb
U.S. Confronts Critical Shortage of Munitions and Interceptors
How will the U.S. escalate facing serious munitions & interceptor depletion? @atm2112 Patterns are fine Facts are better. WSJ 👇 https://t.co/Gk7tiHrSos https://t.co/0ou72vGUkM
Vance's Pakistan Skip Hints Escalation, Reveals US Weakness
Vance not going to Pakistan talks That could be signal that escalation is next But with depleted munitions? It's probably just another misguided attempt to pressure Iran into a deal The U.S. just doesn't understand Iran or its own incredibly weak hand. https://t.co/zbizG6Lyn5
Iran Distrusts Trump, Sees Talks as US Strike Pretext
Iran has lost whatever trust remained in Trump, writes @vali_nasr Araghchi feels the Islamabad talks were a setup He now suspects any further negotiations could be a pretext for another U.S. strike. #Geopolitics #Iran #USForeignPolicy #Diplomacy #MiddleEast
Brent Drops $4.80, Sliding Below $91 This Week
Brent futures price fell $4.82 from $95.20 to $90.38 week ending April 17 This too shall pass #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/JxUzi7LcJW
WTI Crude Plummets 13% as Trump Misstates Hormuz
WTI futures price fell $12.72 (13%) from $96.57 to $83.85 week ending April 17 Trump's Thursday lie about Hormuz being open will backfire on Monday #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/m98itzORTg
Oil Near $200, Likely Stays Until Crash
Just to be safe you assume oil prices can never get to $200 @awealthofcs Just to be safe, I'm going to assume you are an energy blind idiot Prices already are at or near $200 on the cash market. And there's...
Iran Threatens to Target Oil Exports or U.S. Blockade
Iran could respond by destroying oil export infrastructure says @KellyAlspals Or it could just destroy the U.S. blockade
Trump Claims New Hormuz Crisis, but It's Ongoing
"Trump convenes Iran situation room meeting amid RENEWED Hormuz crisis" What "RENEWED" Hormuz crisis? @BarakRavid It's the same crisis that never went away Trump just said it had. But he lies all the time. https://t.co/Uge7GBXLqX
UAE Demands Unconditional Opening of Hormuz Strait
UAE calls for complete & unconditional opening of Hormuz I demand that everyone love each other unconditionally. I urge all elephants to fly
Drone Warfare Makes Disorder a Permanent System
Drone warfare has introduced something new: scalable disruption. This is not temporary. Disorder is no longer the exception. It is the system. 👇 https://t.co/6MZdjk6YPS #DroneWarfare #NewWorldDisorder #Geopolitics #EnergyBlindness #Asymmetry #WarEvolution https://t.co/MsdGKJ0XRA
Futures Shift Risk; Physical Oil Now Scarce
Futures markets transfer price risk & price expectations months to years ahead Physical barrels price scarcity now Paper supply is unlimited. Physical supply isn’t. Any questions? https://t.co/STPJkffl5A #Oil #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #Commodities #Trading
Iran Holds Global Checkmate as US Falters Strategically
I don’t agree that Islamic doctrine is foremost in Teheran’s thinking @PeterKohanloo @zriboua Power is This war is a chess game The US doesn’t have a strategy & is losing the economic game that matters Iran has the world in checkmate That’s the...