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Atlantic Council

Atlantic Council

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Geoeconomics and global markets content incl. sanctions, FX, and policy.

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Evolving Relationship Between US and Europe on Display at Munich Security Conference
Video•Feb 15, 2026

Evolving Relationship Between US and Europe on Display at Munich Security Conference

The Munich Security Conference centered on the future of the transatlantic partnership, highlighting a noticeable shift in Washington’s tone. After a year of sharp rhetoric, U.S. officials presented a more conciliatory, "charm offensive" aimed at easing tensions with European allies. Analysts noted that while European leaders initially welcomed the softer approach, the relief was fleeting. Substantive disagreements remain over NATO’s strategic direction, continued military support for Ukraine, trade rules, and climate‑change commitments. Europe also signaled a desire to bolster its own defence capabilities and assert greater strategic autonomy. The conference’s focus on Secretary Rubio’s remarks underscored the continued U.S. agenda‑setting role, with many observers pointing out Europe’s limited push to redefine the alliance’s priorities. The MSC’s annual report theme, "under destruction," reflected concerns that the rules‑based international order—and the transatlantic bond itself—are being eroded. For policymakers and businesses, the evolving dynamic signals a need for renewed diplomatic engagement and contingency planning. A more independent Europe could reshape procurement, security‑technology markets, and regulatory standards, while lingering U.S. dominance may constrain joint initiatives.

By Atlantic Council
On the Ground in Munich: The Agenda for Middle East Integration at MSC
Video•Feb 14, 2026

On the Ground in Munich: The Agenda for Middle East Integration at MSC

The Munich Security Conference 2026 turned its spotlight on a bold agenda for Middle East integration, drawing a parallel to Europe’s post‑World War II unification that helped end centuries of instability. Delegates acknowledged that the aftermath of the Gaza war has...

By Atlantic Council
On the Ground: What to Expect at the Munich Security Conference 2026
Video•Feb 13, 2026

On the Ground: What to Expect at the Munich Security Conference 2026

The 2026 Munich Security Conference convenes world leaders and security experts amid growing doubts about the durability of the post‑Cold‑War order. Hosted by the Atlantic Council in Munich’s historic hotel venue, the gathering arrives as the United States settles into...

By Atlantic Council
Report Launch: Negotiating with Putin’s Russia
Video•Feb 13, 2026

Report Launch: Negotiating with Putin’s Russia

The Atlantic Council released a new paper, "At the table negotiating with Putin’s Russia," by Donald Jensen and Yulia Osmolovska that examines Russian negotiation practice. The authors argue Moscow treats diplomacy as non-kinetic warfare aimed at decisively winning, not seeking...

By Atlantic Council
Congressman John Moolenaar on Deterring Aggression Against Taiwan
Video•Feb 13, 2026

Congressman John Moolenaar on Deterring Aggression Against Taiwan

Congressman John Moolenaar told an Atlantic Council audience that deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan is a top U.S. national‑security priority. He highlighted a new bipartisan House Select Committee report that outlines how Beijing’s goal to forcefully annex Taiwan by...

By Atlantic Council
He Predicted War with China in 2025. Now Retired Gen. Minihan Discusses Why It Hasn't Happened—Yet.
Video•Feb 11, 2026

He Predicted War with China in 2025. Now Retired Gen. Minihan Discusses Why It Hasn't Happened—Yet.

Retired four‑star General Mike Minahan sat down with the Atlantic Council’s Indo‑Pacific Security Initiative to explain a 2023 internal memo that famously warned, “I hope I’m wrong, but I think we will fight in 2025.” The document, drafted after he took...

By Atlantic Council
China and Latin America, Explained: A Conversation with Samantha Custer
Video•Feb 11, 2026

China and Latin America, Explained: A Conversation with Samantha Custer

The episode examines why Latin America and the Caribbean have turned to Chinese investment, featuring development‑finance expert Samantha Kuster. She outlines how China’s credit lines and policy‑bank lending have grown dramatically, with Beijing financing roughly 3,300 projects worth $33 billion since...

By Atlantic Council
Kroenig on NPR on Iran
News•Feb 11, 2026

Kroenig on NPR on Iran

Atlantic Council vice‑president and Scowcroft Center senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on NPR on Feb. 11 to discuss the Trump administration’s ongoing negotiations with Iran. He outlined the limited progress of back‑channel talks aimed at reviving a nuclear agreement and highlighted...

By Atlantic Council
Global Foresight 2036: What Will the Next Decade Bring?
Video•Feb 11, 2026

Global Foresight 2036: What Will the Next Decade Bring?

The Atlantic Council unveiled its fifth annual Global Foresight 2036 report, a multi‑component effort that combines a survey of roughly 450 geostrategists from 72 countries, a series of “snow leopard” under‑the‑radar trends, and a new video series on artificial intelligence....

By Atlantic Council
Is a Dollar Vibe Shift Under Way?
News•Feb 10, 2026

Is a Dollar Vibe Shift Under Way?

The Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center podcast explores whether a sustained dollar depreciation is emerging. Host Dan McDowell explains how a weaker greenback could reshape U.S. trade balances, investment flows, and national‑security calculations. The discussion highlights potential benefits for exporters alongside higher...

By Atlantic Council
Global Foresight 2036: Forecasting with Artificial Intelligence
Video•Feb 10, 2026

Global Foresight 2036: Forecasting with Artificial Intelligence

The video “Global Foresight 2036” uses ChatGPT to illustrate how artificial‑intelligence tools synthesize expert forecasts about two high‑impact scenarios: the likelihood of a major war in the next ten years and the arrival of artificial general intelligence by 2036. Analysts surveyed...

By Atlantic Council
Mining Corridors as Catalysts: Building on the Lobito Model
News•Feb 10, 2026

Mining Corridors as Catalysts: Building on the Lobito Model

In December 2025 the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a strategic partnership that gives Washington preferential access to Congolese mineral deposits. The article argues that the next step is building logistics corridors, using the Lobito Corridor—linking...

By Atlantic Council
AI and the Future
News•Feb 10, 2026

AI and the Future

Three years after ChatGPT's debut, Atlantic Council experts caution that current AI, built on large language models, excels at pattern‑based tasks but lacks true predictive power for complex geopolitical outcomes. They highlight AI's probabilistic nature, limited ability to generate new...

By Atlantic Council
Global Foresight 2036
News•Feb 10, 2026

Global Foresight 2036

The Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center released Global Foresight 2036, its fifth strategic‑foresight report. Drawing on a survey of nearly 450 geostrategists and foresight practitioners, the paper outlines a ten‑year vision across geopolitics, the global economy, technology, and Earth systems. It highlights...

By Atlantic Council
Welcome to 2036: What the World Could Look Like in Ten Years, According to Nearly 450 Experts
News•Feb 10, 2026

Welcome to 2036: What the World Could Look Like in Ten Years, According to Nearly 450 Experts

An Atlantic Council survey of 447 experts from 72 nations paints a bleak picture of the world in 2036. Most respondents expect China to become the top economic power, while the United States retains military superiority, creating a bipolar or...

By Atlantic Council
Kroenig on School of War Podcast on Nuclear Weapons
News•Feb 9, 2026

Kroenig on School of War Podcast on Nuclear Weapons

On February 9, Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on the School of War podcast to discuss China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal. He highlighted recent Chinese test activities and the pace at which Beijing is increasing warhead counts and delivery...

By Atlantic Council
How 2025’s US Tariff Shocks Can Give Way to Constructive Reforms in 2026
News•Feb 9, 2026

How 2025’s US Tariff Shocks Can Give Way to Constructive Reforms in 2026

The Trump administration’s 2025 trade strategy oscillated between aggressive, unpredictable tariff threats and a quieter push for long‑standing trade objectives. While high tariffs and threats destabilized markets, the administration began issuing exemptions and rolled back many threats, stabilizing tariff levels...

By Atlantic Council
Kroenig on BBC on US Escalating Pressure Against Cuba
News•Feb 9, 2026

Kroenig on BBC on US Escalating Pressure Against Cuba

Atlantic Council vice‑president Matthew Kroenig appeared on the BBC on February 8 to discuss the United States’ intensifying pressure on the Cuban regime. He outlined a multi‑pronged strategy that includes expanded sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and support for civil‑society actors. Kroenig emphasized...

By Atlantic Council
Mining without Rules: The Risky US Bet on the Deep Sea
News•Feb 9, 2026

Mining without Rules: The Risky US Bet on the Deep Sea

In April 2025 President Trump issued an executive order authorizing U.S. companies to mine critical minerals in international waters, directly contravening the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The move aims to secure rare‑earth supplies amid...

By Atlantic Council
Death by Cold: Russia Is Attempting to Freeze Millions of Ukrainian Civilians
News•Feb 7, 2026

Death by Cold: Russia Is Attempting to Freeze Millions of Ukrainian Civilians

Russia has intensified a winter bombing campaign that systematically strikes Ukraine’s power plants, transmission lines, and heating infrastructure, leaving millions without essential energy amid sub‑zero temperatures. Analysts label the strategy a modern "kholodomor," echoing the Soviet‑era famine, and argue it...

By Atlantic Council
Iran Can Still Normalize Its Economy—But the Path Will Be Painful and Slow
News•Feb 6, 2026

Iran Can Still Normalize Its Economy—But the Path Will Be Painful and Slow

Iran’s inflation, hovering around 20% and spiking above 40% during sanctions, has become a structural feature of its macro‑economy. The country’s fragmented exchange‑rate system, fiscal deficits financed by the central bank, and dominant state‑linked enterprises perpetuate price pressures. Analysts argue...

By Atlantic Council
When Economic Warfare Meets Gunboat Diplomacy: What to Know About the US Seizures of Shadow Fleet Tankers
News•Feb 5, 2026

When Economic Warfare Meets Gunboat Diplomacy: What to Know About the US Seizures of Shadow Fleet Tankers

U.S. authorities have seized at least seven tankers linked to Venezuela’s shadow fleet, part of a broader push to disrupt illicit oil flows from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. The seizures rely on civil forfeiture statutes rather than wartime prize law,...

By Atlantic Council
Charai for The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune: Yemen Is Not a Gulf Rivalry—It Is a Test of Whether Extremism Can Be...
News•Feb 5, 2026

Charai for The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune: Yemen Is Not a Gulf Rivalry—It Is a Test of Whether Extremism Can Be...

Charai argues that the Yemen conflict should be viewed less as a Saudi‑UAE versus Iran Gulf rivalry and more as a litmus test for the international community's ability to contain extremist movements. He highlights that the war’s primary driver is...

By Atlantic Council
Yevgeniya Gaber Joins Ukrainian State News Agency “Ukrinform” To Discuss the Evolution of Turkey-Ukraine Bilateral Relations
News•Feb 5, 2026

Yevgeniya Gaber Joins Ukrainian State News Agency “Ukrinform” To Discuss the Evolution of Turkey-Ukraine Bilateral Relations

Yevgeniya Gaber, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, has joined Ukraine’s state news agency Ukrinform to provide expert commentary on the evolving Turkey‑Ukraine relationship. She emphasizes how Turkey’s strategic calculus balances its ties to Russia with its growing economic...

By Atlantic Council
Sweden’s Role in Countering Hybrid Threats in the Baltic Sea Region
News•Feb 4, 2026

Sweden’s Role in Countering Hybrid Threats in the Baltic Sea Region

Sweden’s accession to NATO has closed the strategic gap in the Baltic Sea, but Russia continues to exploit sub‑threshold hybrid tactics that target critical undersea infrastructure. The alliance’s conventional superiority does not automatically translate into deterrence against sabotage, GPS jamming,...

By Atlantic Council
Andrew Peek Joins Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative as Inaugural Director
News•Feb 4, 2026

Andrew Peek Joins Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative as Inaugural Director

Andrew Peek has been appointed the inaugural director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. In this role he will steer efforts to embed resilience as a core pillar...

By Atlantic Council
Memo to the President: Steps to Secure a Prosperous, US-Aligned Venezuela
News•Feb 3, 2026

Memo to the President: Steps to Secure a Prosperous, US-Aligned Venezuela

Following the January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro, a memo authored by former U.S. officials outlines a roadmap for Washington to steer Venezuela toward a prosperous, U.S.-aligned future. It calls for immediate benchmarks on human‑rights reforms, dismantling of paramilitary groups, and...

By Atlantic Council

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