AI and the Future
Three years after ChatGPT's debut, Atlantic Council experts caution that current AI, built on large language models, excels at pattern‑based tasks but lacks true predictive power for complex geopolitical outcomes. They highlight AI's probabilistic nature, limited ability to generate new information, and the risk of over‑reliance in policy making. Looking ahead, the panel foresees exponential growth constrained by compute and energy limits, rising distrust, and a push toward sovereign AI and world‑model systems. Short‑term trends include expanding context windows and increased government control of AI resources.
Welcome to 2036: What the World Could Look Like in Ten Years, According to Nearly 450 Experts
An Atlantic Council survey of 447 experts from 72 nations paints a bleak picture of the world in 2036. Most respondents expect China to become the top economic power, while the United States retains military superiority, creating a bipolar or...
Kroenig on School of War Podcast on Nuclear Weapons
On February 9, Atlantic Council senior director Matthew Kroenig appeared on the School of War podcast to discuss China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal. He highlighted recent Chinese test activities and the pace at which Beijing is increasing warhead counts and delivery...
How 2025’s US Tariff Shocks Can Give Way to Constructive Reforms in 2026
The Trump administration’s 2025 trade strategy oscillated between aggressive, unpredictable tariff threats and a quieter push for long‑standing trade objectives. While high tariffs and threats destabilized markets, the administration began issuing exemptions and rolled back many threats, stabilizing tariff levels...
Kroenig on BBC on US Escalating Pressure Against Cuba
Atlantic Council vice‑president Matthew Kroenig appeared on the BBC on February 8 to discuss the United States’ intensifying pressure on the Cuban regime. He outlined a multi‑pronged strategy that includes expanded sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and support for civil‑society actors. Kroenig emphasized...
Mining without Rules: The Risky US Bet on the Deep Sea
In April 2025 President Trump issued an executive order authorizing U.S. companies to mine critical minerals in international waters, directly contravening the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The move aims to secure rare‑earth supplies amid...
Death by Cold: Russia Is Attempting to Freeze Millions of Ukrainian Civilians
Russia has intensified a winter bombing campaign that systematically strikes Ukraine’s power plants, transmission lines, and heating infrastructure, leaving millions without essential energy amid sub‑zero temperatures. Analysts label the strategy a modern "kholodomor," echoing the Soviet‑era famine, and argue it...
Iran Can Still Normalize Its Economy—But the Path Will Be Painful and Slow
Iran’s inflation, hovering around 20% and spiking above 40% during sanctions, has become a structural feature of its macro‑economy. The country’s fragmented exchange‑rate system, fiscal deficits financed by the central bank, and dominant state‑linked enterprises perpetuate price pressures. Analysts argue...
When Economic Warfare Meets Gunboat Diplomacy: What to Know About the US Seizures of Shadow Fleet Tankers
U.S. authorities have seized at least seven tankers linked to Venezuela’s shadow fleet, part of a broader push to disrupt illicit oil flows from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. The seizures rely on civil forfeiture statutes rather than wartime prize law,...
Charai for The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune: Yemen Is Not a Gulf Rivalry—It Is a Test of Whether Extremism Can Be...
Charai argues that the Yemen conflict should be viewed less as a Saudi‑UAE versus Iran Gulf rivalry and more as a litmus test for the international community's ability to contain extremist movements. He highlights that the war’s primary driver is...
Yevgeniya Gaber Joins Ukrainian State News Agency “Ukrinform” To Discuss the Evolution of Turkey-Ukraine Bilateral Relations
Yevgeniya Gaber, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, has joined Ukraine’s state news agency Ukrinform to provide expert commentary on the evolving Turkey‑Ukraine relationship. She emphasizes how Turkey’s strategic calculus balances its ties to Russia with its growing economic...
Sweden’s Role in Countering Hybrid Threats in the Baltic Sea Region
Sweden’s accession to NATO has closed the strategic gap in the Baltic Sea, but Russia continues to exploit sub‑threshold hybrid tactics that target critical undersea infrastructure. The alliance’s conventional superiority does not automatically translate into deterrence against sabotage, GPS jamming,...
Andrew Peek Joins Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative as Inaugural Director
Andrew Peek has been appointed the inaugural director of the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. In this role he will steer efforts to embed resilience as a core pillar...
Memo to the President: Steps to Secure a Prosperous, US-Aligned Venezuela
Following the January 3 capture of Nicolás Maduro, a memo authored by former U.S. officials outlines a roadmap for Washington to steer Venezuela toward a prosperous, U.S.-aligned future. It calls for immediate benchmarks on human‑rights reforms, dismantling of paramilitary groups, and...
