News•Mar 9, 2026
What Regional Data Tell Us About the Euro Area Phillips Curve
A new ECB research bulletin exploits regional data from 168 NUTS‑2 areas across 11 euro‑area countries (1999‑2023) to re‑estimate the Phillips curve. Controlling for region and time fixed effects yields a slope of –0.19, far steeper than the –0.01 found in country‑level studies, implying inflation still reacts to local unemployment. When national inflation expectations—either professional forecasts or country‑time fixed effects—are introduced, the slope flattens dramatically to –0.12 and even –0.02, suggesting expectations dominate the relationship. The analysis also finds that apparent non‑linearities vanish once expectations are properly accounted for.
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Mar 7, 2026
When Neighbours Stop Knocking: The Hidden Impact of Canada’s 2025 Tourism Decline on US Local Labour Markets
In 2025, Canadian tourism to the United States dropped 25% after heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump‑era rhetoric. The decline hit service‑oriented ZIP codes where Canadian visitors comprised at least 1% of foot traffic, leading to a 6% employment contraction in...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Mar 7, 2026
Cross-Border Restrictions in the Age of Geopolitical Tensions: What Seven Decades of Data Tell Us
A new study uses large‑language‑model techniques to convert the IMF’s 70‑year AREAER narrative archive into a daily, country‑level dataset of cross‑border financial restrictions (iBoP‑C and iBoP‑S). The high‑frequency indices reveal a stop‑go pattern of financial liberalisation, with advanced economies easing...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Mar 6, 2026
Sanctions and Financial Repression
The interview with Oleg Itskhoki examines how Russia employed financial repression in 2022 to weather the largest post‑war sanctions package. By banning cash withdrawals and obligating exporters to surrender foreign‑currency earnings, Moscow halted a ruble freefall and stabilized its fiscal...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Mar 4, 2026
A Wartime Labour Market: The Case of Ukraine
Ukraine’s labor market has endured a massive shock since the February 2022 invasion, losing roughly a quarter of its pre‑war workforce due to displacement, mobilization and casualties. Despite a spike in unemployment above 20% in 2022, the rate fell to...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Mar 4, 2026
What's Next for Ukraine: The Labour Market
Ukraine has lost roughly a quarter of its civilian workforce since the 2022 invasion, with 3.5 million workers displaced, mobilised, or killed. Despite this shock, aggregate job‑matching efficiency declined only about 15%, a smaller drop than during the 2008 U.S. financial...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Mar 1, 2026
Banking on Nonbanks
The IMF paper documents a rapid rise in non‑bank financial institution (NBFI) subsidiaries within banking groups, now accounting for about 32 % of syndicated loan origination in 2024. When macroprudential policies tighten bank‑level constraints, bank subsidiaries cut lending by roughly 1 %,...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Feb 28, 2026
How Sanctions Can Help Stabilise Global Oil Supply
A G7‑backed price cap on Russian oil, introduced in 2022, is shown to boost near‑term extraction while curbing global oil prices and volatility. The cap neutralizes market power and reduces the option value of holding reserves, shifting producer incentives toward...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Feb 27, 2026
The EU's Path to Service Growth and Clean Tech
The EU can boost growth by deepening single‑market integration for high‑value services and by accelerating clean‑tech investments. While the United States pursues protectionist manufacturing policies and retreats from climate commitments, it still enjoys a large services surplus that could wane....
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Feb 27, 2026
From Tariffs to Trade Flows: Diversion Effects and China’s Exports to the EU
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports have coincided with a near‑10% year‑on‑year rise in China’s exports to the EU during 2025, but the surge began before the tariff hike and has not accelerated since. A difference‑in‑differences analysis of over 3,000 product...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Feb 26, 2026
Geopolitics in the Evaluation of International Scientific Collaboration
Recent randomized surveys of US policymakers and scientists reveal a pronounced “China penalty” in grant evaluations. When the only variable changed is the collaborator’s nationality, support for US‑China proposals drops sharply compared with identical US‑Germany proposals, with unconditional approval falling...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Feb 25, 2026
What’s Next for Ukraine: Investment
Ukraine will emerge from the war burdened with massive debt, but experts Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that restructuring—potentially including outright forgiveness—is essential to attract private capital. They estimate a $40 billion annual investment gap, split between rebuilding destroyed assets,...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Feb 25, 2026
A Tale of Two Financial Centres: Brexit Uncertainty and the Fragility of Cross-Border Capital Flows
A new firm‑level study of Swiss‑UK capital linkages finds that the Brexit referendum’s surge in policy uncertainty sharply reduced short‑term debt flows from Swiss‑resident firms to the United Kingdom, while equity investments remained stable. The contraction is driven almost entirely...
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Feb 24, 2026
Export Bans that Weren't Really Bans: How Russia Kept Importing Military Goods
EU export bans targeting military‑relevant goods after Russia’s invasion were initially narrow, covering only specific product variants. Transaction‑level customs data show three evasion channels: partially sanctioned variants, transit shipments declared en route, and rerouting through third‑country hubs such as Turkey....
By CEPR — VoxEU
News•Feb 23, 2026
Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification
A new study of Japanese multinational corporations shows that rising geopolitical risk is prompting firms to diversify supply chains away from China toward ASEAN economies, rather than fully relocating production. Using the Caldara‑Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk index and firm‑level trade and...
By CEPR — VoxEU