Farm Progress

This Week in Agribusiness, April 18, 2026

This week’s agribusiness broadcast from the National Ag Marketers Conference highlighted a major policy shift: the EPA’s 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation was increased by 2 billion gallons, giving clean‑fuel producers a clear market target. Clean‑fuel leaders explained that U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel capacity now tops 7 billion gallons, and state incentives—such as Illinois’ jump to a 20% biodiesel blend tax credit—are amplifying demand. The discussion turned to broader commodity dynamics. Rabobank’s Steve Nicholson warned that a tentative Iran‑U.S. truce may not immediately lower diesel or fertilizer prices, as refinery and fertilizer plant shutdowns create a long‑tail supply crunch. He also noted a hefty 2.2 billion‑bushel corn carry‑over, suggesting the market has a cushion that dampens price spikes, while soybean oil remains strong in the 62‑70¢ range, approaching its ceiling. Key quotes underscored the narrative: Clean Fuels Alliance CEO Donnell praised the “certainty finally” provided by federal policy, and Nicholson urged growers to “don’t forget fundamentals” and to “sell the rumor, buy the fact” ahead of the upcoming Xi‑President meeting that could boost soybean exports. For producers and investors, the combined federal and state signals mean more confidence to plant soybeans and corn, expand biodiesel feedstock, and hedge against volatile fertilizer costs. Wheat may benefit from tighter global supplies, while soybean oil’s near‑cap price suggests limited upside without further crude spikes. Overall, policy clarity and geopolitical risk shape planting decisions and price expectations for the 2026 season.