The Mix of Chaotic Politics and a Resilient Economy Can’t Last
Amid escalating political turbulence, the United States economy has shown surprising resilience, posting solid growth and low unemployment. Analysts warn that the mix of partisan gridlock, rising fiscal deficits, and external shocks cannot be sustained indefinitely. Inflation pressures and looming elections threaten to erode consumer confidence and slow corporate investment. Without decisive policy action, the current equilibrium may unravel.
The China Shock 2.0
China’s economy generated a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus last year, intensifying fears that its flood of imports could swamp industries worldwide. European policymakers are drafting rules that would require Chinese firms opening factories in the EU to transfer technology and...
Submit Your Questions: How Will the Iran War Impact China?
A live Ask‑an‑Expert session is scheduled for April 10, featuring Joe Leahy and Cheng Leng from Bloomberg's Beijing bureau. The discussion will focus on how the ongoing Iran‑Israel war could reshape China's strategic, economic, and energy interests. Participants can submit...
The Iran War Shock Is About Half the Size of Covid-19
The Financial Times estimates that the economic shock from the Iran‑Israel conflict will be roughly half as severe as the Covid‑19 pandemic. IMF and World Bank models suggest a 1‑1.5% dip in global GDP, compared with the 3‑4% contraction seen...
How Trump's Tariffs Ripped up the Global Trade Order
One year after President Donald Trump’s self‑styled "Liberation Day," his aggressive tariff regime has fundamentally altered the global trade architecture. The tariffs forced many U.S. firms to relocate production to lower‑cost Asian hubs, while European manufacturers grappled with rising input...
Fertiliser Price Surge Due to Iran War Coincides with US Planting Season
The renewed Iran war has disrupted urea and ammonium nitrate production, slashing exports and driving global fertilizer prices up roughly 30 percent. The price surge coincides with the critical U.S. planting window, adding $10‑$20 per acre to corn fertilizer costs....
US Warns EU to Pass Trade Deal or Risk Losing ‘Favourable’ Access to LNG
The United States warned the European Union that failure to ratify the pending Energy Trade and Investment Agreement could jeopardize the preferential access EU importers currently enjoy for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). Washington’s message comes as Europe scrambles to...
Starmer Adviser Calls for Temporary Energy Windfall Tax to Curb ‘Profiteering’
A senior adviser to UK Labour leader Keir Starmer has called for a temporary windfall tax on energy firms. The proposal targets companies that have posted record profits amid soaring wholesale prices. Proceeds would be directed toward measures that ease...
Dire Strait
The Financial Times has unveiled the Monetary Policy Radar editorial team, a dedicated unit focused on tracking central‑bank actions and their market impact. The team is led by Chris Giles, FT’s economics commentator, and includes Andrew Whiffin, award‑winning UK CFA Journalist...
US Economy Ended 2025 on Weaker Footing than Previously Thought
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth‑quarter 2025 data, showing GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, well below the 2.2% forecast earlier this year. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer spending, a modest rebound in inflation, and a softening labor market....
Donald Trump’s Tariffs Send Corporate America’s Import Costs Spiralling
President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff regime is driving a sharp rise in import duties for U.S. businesses, especially midsize manufacturers. Recent customs data reveal duty bills climbing as high as 30 percent year‑over‑year, adding roughly $12 billion to corporate expense lines....
The Case for a Larger Monetary Regime Shift in the US and Japan
A critical assessment of the Monetary Policy Radar scenarios
January US CPI Not Weak Enough to Justify Near-Term Cut
U.S. consumer price index for January rose 0.4% from December, bringing the year‑over‑year rate to 3.4%, slightly below most forecasts. Core inflation, however, stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, keeping overall price pressure elevated. The modest miss is unlikely...
US Businesses and Consumers Pay 90% of Tariff Costs, NY Fed Says
Central bank’s research undercuts Trump’s claims that foreign companies will pay for levies
Scotch Whisky Exports to the US Drop 15% After Trump’s Tariffs
Industry body urges UK government to ‘vigorously’ pursue deals with other countries
