Libya, Iran, and the Limits of Airpower
The United States’ 2026 air campaign against Iran has already logged nearly 8,000 strikes, surpassing the 6,000 targets hit during the 2011 NATO‑led intervention in Libya. Both operations achieved air superiority but failed to produce decisive regime change, leaving the targeted governments intact. The article argues that without a ground component or a credible rebel movement, the U.S. faces limited options—escalating attacks, deploying troops, or negotiating a cease‑fire. It warns that repeating Libya’s post‑war chaos could be a likely outcome for Iran.
On the Iran War, a Deep Disconnect Between Experts and Policymakers
A poll of 641 Middle‑East scholars shows only 5% backed a U.S.–Israeli war on Iran and just 1% expected a pro‑American regime change, while 84% anticipate significant instability in Iran over the next five years. Experts correctly predicted that the...
Iran Rejects Trump’s 15-Point Peace Plan
Iran swiftly dismissed President Trump’s 15‑point peace proposal, issuing a counter‑offer that demands reparations, recognition of Hormuz sovereignty and an end to sanctions, while the U.S. bolstered its presence with an extra 2,000 troops, bringing its regional deployment to roughly...
Syria’s Lessons for Regime Change in Iran
Lina Khatib argues that Syria’s 2011‑2024 upheaval offers a clearer template for any future regime change in Iran than the Iraq experience. She notes that Iran’s missile force and conventional capabilities are eroding under sustained U.S.–Israeli air strikes, while its...
No, China Doesn’t Want Spheres of Influence
Aaron Glasserman argues that China rejects traditional spheres of influence, favoring global economic integration over territorial domination. While Beijing opposes foreign powers encroaching on its sovereignty, it avoids costly military enforcement of exclusive regional control. Instead, China leverages trade, investment,...
What Iran Wants From the War
Iran has abandoned its long‑standing strategy of strategic patience, adopting an offensive deterrence doctrine after the 12‑day war with Israel. The new posture relies on rapid, punitive strikes across the Persian Gulf, leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz and...
The Follies of Predicting War
Phillips Payson O’Brien’s new book *War and Power* argues that wars are won or lost far beyond sheer firepower, highlighting the 2022 misreading of Russia’s chances in Ukraine. He critiques battle‑centric, realist analyses and proposes a “full‑spectrum power” framework that folds economic...
Can Pakistan and Afghanistan De-Escalate?
The Taliban accused Pakistan of bombing a Kabul hospital, killing more than 400 civilians, the deadliest single incident in their bilateral conflict. Pakistan denied the claim, insisting its strikes targeted militant infrastructure and accusing the Taliban of harboring the Tehrik‑i‑Taliban...
Tehran Vows to Strike Gulf Oil, Gas Facilities
Iran pledged to strike oil and gas facilities across the Persian Gulf after a missile attack damaged its South Pars gas field, a joint Iran‑Qatar reserve. Tehran named Saudi, UAE and Qatari sites as legitimate targets, including the Samref refinery...
Xi Just Can’t Shake GDP Worship
Ahead of the Two Sessions, President Xi released a new collection of speeches emphasizing a "correct view of political performance," signaling a shift away from the GDP‑centric evaluation that has driven China’s bureaucracy for decades. Xi now expects officials to...
BRICS Is Divided on Iran. So Are NATO and the G-7.
BRICS members remain divided over the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with China and Brazil condemning the attacks while India stays neutral and South Africa hesitates. The bloc’s recent expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE has...
‘Made in America’ Should Accept Chinese Investment
The article argues that the United States should stop treating all Chinese capital as a security threat and instead allow limited, well‑structured Chinese investment in non‑sensitive sectors. It cites Trump’s “Made in America” agenda, which welcomes foreign money, and contrasts...
Six U.S. Troops Killed in Aircraft Crash in Iraq
Six U.S. service members died when a KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq, with investigators suspecting a mid‑air collision rather than hostile fire. The loss marks the fourth manned U.S. aircraft accident since Operation Epic Fury began, bringing the...
Two Books About the Pull of Home
Foreign Policy’s March 2026 fiction roundup spotlights two major releases – Helen Garner’s collected short fiction and Cecile Pin’s debut space novel “Celestial Lights.” Garner’s volume, issued by Penguin Random House’s Pantheon imprint, gathers stories written in the 1980s‑1990s that examine second‑wave...
How to (Not) Be a Pacific Power
Recent U.S. policy shifts have tightened visa rules for Pacific islanders while scaling back development aid, signaling a move toward militarized, strategic engagement. The United States now requires bonds for visitors from Fiji, Tuvalu and Vanuatu and has placed partial...
Countries Agree to Historic Emergency Oil Reserve Release
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of its 32 member nations, the largest emergency drawdown in its history. The move is designed to offset the abrupt loss of...
How South Africa Is Navigating the Iran War
South Africa is walking a diplomatic tightrope as the United States‑Israel war with Iran intensifies, keeping a non‑aligned posture while trying to repair strained ties with Washington. President Cyril Ramaphosa has launched a probe into Iran’s participation in BRICS+ naval drills...
Iran Threatens to Stop Oil From Leaving the Middle East
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it will block any oil export through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to cut off a route that carries roughly 20% of global crude. The declaration coincided with heightened U.S. strikes in Iran and...
No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran
Israeli officials and U.S. think tanks are warning that Turkey could become a strategic rival comparable to Iran, citing President Erdogan’s authoritarian turn and regional ambitions. The article argues the "new Iran" label is misleading because Turkey lacks Iran’s ideological...
Iran Threat Exposes Britain’s Shrinking Military Reach
Iran‑linked missile and drone attacks on U.S. allies have laid bare Britain’s dwindling ability to defend its forces abroad, highlighted by a recent drone strike on a UK base in Cyprus. The Royal Navy’s withdrawal of its last Gulf frigate...
North Korea Is Getting Serious About Space Weapons
North Korea’s latest five‑year defense plan formally prioritizes “special assets for attacking enemy satellites,” marking its first official commitment to counter‑space weapons. Analysts see this as a potential move toward kinetic or nuclear anti‑satellite (ASAT) systems that could threaten the...
Trump Demands Iran’s ‘Unconditional Surrender’
U.S. President Donald Trump escalated the Iran conflict by demanding an "unconditional surrender," abandoning his earlier willingness to negotiate. The hardline stance coincides with a sharp rise in crude prices—up more than 8%—as the war threatens oil shipments through the...
What in the World?
The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran, prompting diplomatic overtures such as Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim offering to mediate a cease‑fire. Meanwhile, India and Canada agreed to deepen defense cooperation, and the U.S. partnered with Ecuador to target narcoterrorist...
Shadow Boxing With the Kremlin
Former CIA officer Sean Wiswesser’s April 2026 book, *Tradecraft, Tactics and Dirty Tricks*, offers a candid look at Russian intelligence after the Soviet era. He argues that most Russian operatives abroad are inept, relying on amateur “illegals” who mishandle tradecraft and...
How the Gulf Countries Are Responding to Iran’s Attacks
Iran’s recent drone and missile barrage has struck the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman, with more than 95% of projectiles intercepted by Gulf defenses. The attacks have shaken public confidence but quickly gave way to a resilient mood as...
The Iran War Spills Beyond the Middle East
The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has rapidly expanded beyond the Middle East, affecting more than a dozen nations. Azerbaijan reported Iranian drones over its Nakhichevan exclave, while Tehran denied involvement and blamed Israel. A U.S. submarine torpedoed an Iranian warship...
The Domino Effect of Operation Epic Fury
Operation Epic Fury, the United States’ six‑day campaign against Iran, is already reshaping Middle‑East power dynamics. The strikes have degraded Iran’s ability to fund and direct Islamist proxies such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, weakening their operational capacity. With Tehran’s...
The Drone Attrition Trap
The article warns that the United States is falling into a "drone attrition trap," where cheap Iranian‑made Shahed‑136 drones, priced around $20,000, force the U.S. and allies to expend multi‑million‑dollar Patriot and SM‑6 interceptors. Ukraine’s four‑year experience shows that a...
What the War on Iran Means for Africa
The escalating U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is spilling over into Africa, where Iran has cemented security ties with Sahelian juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Western attention is being diverted, prompting the United States to scale back counter‑terrorism support while...
A Middle Powers Club Would Make the World More Dangerous
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos speech called on Canada, India, Australia and Japan to form a middle‑powers club as the liberal order strains under U.S. pressure. The proposal marks a shift toward collective diversification away from the United States...
Prabowo’s Peacemaker Campaign Now Extends to Iran
Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto announced he is ready to travel to Tehran to mediate between Iran and the United States after the recent U.S.-Israel strikes. The foreign ministry framed the offer as a call for restraint, stopping short of condemning...
How George W. Bush Created ICE
President George W. Bush responded to 9/11 by signing the Homeland Security Act of 2002, consolidating 22 federal agencies into the Department of Homeland Security. The reorganization created Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in 2003, giving the executive branch a...
Trump Says Iranian Supreme Leader Is Dead
President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike, a statement not corroborated by Tehran. Iranian state media reported Khamenei as “steadfast,” casting doubt on the allegation. The report...
U.S., Iran Make ‘Significant Progress’ in Nuclear Talks, Mediator Says
U.S. and Iranian officials held a third indirect nuclear round in Geneva, with Omani mediator Badr al‑Busaidi reporting "significant progress" and promising technical talks in Vienna next week. Tehran floated a framework to suspend enrichment for three to five years...
U.S. Military Buildup Casts Shadow Over Iran Talks
The United States and Iran held a third round of indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, with Omani mediation reporting significant progress and technical discussions slated for Vienna next week. Simultaneously, Washington has launched its largest Middle East military buildup since...
Modi’s Israel Visit Underscores Deep Ties
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi began a two‑day state visit to Israel, meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing the Knesset and touring Yad Vashem. The trip underscores a decade‑long transformation of India‑Israel relations into a deep strategic partnership, with Israel now...
Rubio Meets With Caribbean Leaders to Discuss U.S. Policy
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Caribbean leaders in St. Kitts to discuss the Trump‑era Donroe Doctrine, which has intensified military actions and economic pressure on Cuba and Venezuela. At the same summit, Caribbean nations voiced concerns over U.S....
Korea’s Demographic Crisis Has Come for Its Military
South Korea’s shrinking birthrate—down to 0.75 children per woman—has cut the pool of eligible male conscripts, driving a 20% drop in active‑duty troops from 560,000 in 2019 to 450,000 in 2025. The Defense Ministry projects the force could shrink to...
Trump’s Cuba Policy Is Backing Mexico Into a Corner
President Donald Trump issued an executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuba and threatening tariffs on any nation that continues supplying oil, effectively targeting Mexico, Cuba’s primary oil source. In response, Mexico halted its daily oil shipments to Cuba,...
Four Years of War in Europe
Four years after Russia’s invasion, Europe has become the primary financier and arms supplier for Ukraine, while the United States under President Trump has largely stepped back from direct involvement. The conflict has spurred unprecedented battlefield innovation, notably Ukraine’s mass‑produced...
What Is Trump’s China Policy?
Former President Donald Trump’s China policy is defined by contradictory impulses—pursuing short‑term commercial deals while simultaneously signaling a tougher stance on strategic issues like Taiwan and critical minerals. The administration’s “big‑tent” approach pits pro‑business officials against hard‑line hawks, creating strategic...
Why Indonesia Is All-In on Trump’s Board of Peace
Indonesia’s president, Prabowo Subianto, will attend the inaugural Trump Board of Peace meeting and has pledged up to 8,000 troops for a humanitarian peacekeeping mission in Gaza, with 1,000 ready by April and the remainder by June. The offer is...
A Hectic Day for U.S. Negotiators
U.S. negotiators in Geneva concluded indirect talks with Iran, reaching a general understanding on guiding principles that tie nuclear limits to missile restrictions and sanctions relief. President Trump warned Tehran of possible military action if a broader deal is not...
Trump’s New Arms Rules Will Hit Southeast Asia
President Trump issued an executive order establishing an “America First” arms export strategy that rewards allies who invest in self‑defense, occupy critical geography, or contribute to U.S. economic security. The rubric pushes the Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia toward priority status...
Elbridge Colby: ‘NATO Is Actually Stronger Than Ever.’
Elbridge Colby, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, told the Munich Security Conference that NATO is stronger than ever and is evolving into a "NATO 3.0" model that shifts conventional defense responsibility to Europe while the United States underwrites the...
Russia ‘Not Serious’ About Peace Deal, Lindsey Graham Says
Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters at the Munich Security Conference that Russia is not serious about a peace deal, contradicting President Donald Trump’s optimism. Graham argues Moscow believes it can win the Donbas militarily and will only negotiate after securing...
Rubio to Europe: ‘We Care Deeply’
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a sweeping address at the Munich Security Conference, urging a renewed, values‑based transatlantic partnership. He blamed de‑industrialization, unchecked migration, and climate‑policy mandates for eroding Western sovereignty and called for a joint push to...
What Rubio Gets Right (and Wrong) About the Western Hemisphere
Juan S. González argues that U.S. security hinges on a stable Western Hemisphere, echoing Roosevelt’s Monroe‑Doctrine insight. He praises Secretary of State Marco Rubio for recognizing the need for proactive engagement but criticizes Rubio’s reliance on coercion and short‑term pressure....
Beyond Blocs
The article argues that the world is moving beyond bloc politics toward issue‑based cooperation, with Europe seeking strategic autonomy while engaging China on a case‑by‑case basis. Recent high‑level visits to Beijing by European and other leaders underscore this shift. Trade...
Challenges Overshadow Hope in Gaza
Major fighting in Gaza has ceased, yet the cease‑fire remains fragile and humanitarian conditions are only marginally improving. Over 92% of residential structures are destroyed, leaving half a hundred million metric tons of rubble and a crippled health system. The...