The Iran War’s Agriculture Shock Isn’t Over Yet
A tentative cease‑fire between the United States and Iran has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, leaving energy and fertilizer shipments in limbo. Urea fertilizer prices have surged about 40%, while global fuel costs continue to climb, pressuring agricultural production and transport. Governments from India to Egypt are scrambling with subsidies and price caps, but uncertainty over maritime access persists. The World Bank, IMF and UN warn that the shock could push an additional 45 million people toward hunger, raising the global at‑risk population to over 360 million.
Pakistan Walks a Tightrope on Iran
Pakistan is walking a diplomatic tightrope, mediating a U.S.-Iran cease‑fire while bound by a September‑2025 defense pact with Saudi Arabia. The pact formalizes military coordination and secures Saudi loans, deferred oil payments, and investment that Pakistan desperately needs amid its...
Meme Wars
President Donald Trump threatened Iran with strikes over the Strait of Hormuz, then abruptly announced a two‑week cease‑fire, prompting a wave of AI‑generated memes from Iranian embassies. Tehran’s diplomatic accounts in Zimbabwe, Thailand, South Africa and India used humor and...
This Isn’t a 1970s Oil Shock
The Iran war has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a critical bottleneck for both crude oil and liquefied natural gas, pushing oil prices up about 40% in six weeks and affecting roughly 20% of global oil consumption and 25%...
A New Legal Blow to the U.K.’s Chagos Islands Deal
A UK Supreme Court ruling has overturned the ban on Chagossians living on the outer islands of the Chagos Archipelago, challenging the legal basis of Britain’s 2024 agreement with Mauritius to transfer sovereignty while leasing Diego Garcia for 99 years....
The Energy Crisis Won’t End Right Away (Even if the Iran War Does)
The U.S.–Iran cease‑fire sparked a rapid drop in crude prices, but analysts warn the energy crunch will linger for months. Production, refining and export capacity lost in March‑April cannot be quickly rebuilt, keeping diesel, jet fuel and fertilizer costs elevated....
5 Unanswered Questions on the U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire
The United States and Iran announced a two‑week cease‑fire, with Israel reluctantly joining, but major questions remain. Negotiations will begin in Islamabad on Saturday, led by Vice President J.D. Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while President Trump says...
Beijing Is Trying to Break U.S. Narratives Over Taiwan
Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li‑wun led a delegation to Beijing from April 7‑12, meeting President Xi Jinping in the first KMT visit to China in a decade. Beijing framed the trip as a chance to promote the 1992 Consensus and argue...
How Pakistan Helped Secure a Cease-Fire in Iran
Pakistan emerged as the chief mediator in a two‑week U.S.–Iran cease‑fire, leveraging its ties with Tehran, Riyadh, China and the United States. A five‑point peace proposal from Beijing bolstered Islamabad’s diplomatic push, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited both...
Will Trump Attack or TACO?
U.S. President Donald Trump gave Iran a deadline of 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday to agree to a cease‑fire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that failure would trigger U.S. strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. The White House justified the threat...
The Iran War Is Exposing Iraq’s Weaknesses
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict is spilling into Iraq, turning the country into a de‑facto secondary battlefield. Recent drone strikes on the U.S. diplomatic hub in Baghdad and the kidnapping of journalist Shelly Kittleson underscore Baghdad's limited control over its own territory....
Why Energy Has Become a Foreign-Policy Weapon
The article argues that energy has re‑emerged as a potent foreign‑policy weapon, highlighted by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz which removes roughly 10 million barrels of oil and 20% of global LNG capacity from the market. Prices have surged—oil...
Trump Is Attacking Iranians, Not Just Iran
President Donald Trump’s threats to “send Iran back to the Stone Ages” have materialized in a U.S.–Israel air campaign that targets not only military sites but also civilian water, power, and transport infrastructure. The strikes have killed civilians, crippled desalination...
Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder
The ongoing war has left Iran’s nuclear program largely intact, with more than 400 kg of highly enriched uranium still hidden underground. After the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba Khamenei, a hard‑line figure backed by the IRGC, assumed...
The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth
After months of conflict, Iran has begun operating a de‑facto toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz, collecting fees from vessels, some in yuan. Tehran is pushing a formal Iran‑Oman transit authority that would levy a modest $500,000 fee per...
The Gulf’s Wartime Unity Is Unraveling
The Gulf’s initial wartime unity against Iran’s attacks has begun to fracture as the conflict drags on. Qatar and Oman are championing diplomatic restraint, while the United Arab Emirates advocates direct military action, and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain adopt...
Trump’s New Cyber Strategy Is Catnip for Beijing
President Trump unveiled a six‑pillar national cyber strategy that puts offensive operations at the core of U.S. deterrence. The plan pairs aggressive hacking with deregulation of cyber and data rules, aiming to streamline compliance but potentially eroding baseline security. Beijing...
How China Reinvented the BRI
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) rebounded in 2025, reaching $213.5 billion in project value and surpassing its 2016 peak. China’s foreign trade hit $6.3 trillion, delivering a record $1.2 trillion surplus. The BRI has been repurposed from pure infrastructure to a tool...
America’s War Machine Runs on Tungsten—And It Could Run Out
U.S. military operations against Iran have exposed a critical dependence on tungsten, a metal essential for armor‑piercing rounds and rocket nozzles. Prices have surged more than 500% as existing stockpiles dwindle, and the United States imports the majority of its...
U.K. Hosts Coalition Talks to Reopen Hormuz—Without the U.S.
The United Kingdom convened virtual talks with over 40 nations to form a coalition aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since its war began on Feb. 28. The United States was absent, with President Trump...
The Next Global Food Crisis Has Already Begun
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran has choked a key maritime route for fertilizer shipments, pushing nitrogen and phosphate prices up 20‑40 percent. Rising transport costs and insurance premiums are forcing farmers in...
Outsource AI Risk to the Right People
Anthropic’s Claude was reportedly used by the Pentagon for airstrikes against Iran just hours after the Defense Department terminated its contract with the firm. The episode highlights a growing rift between U.S. officials and AI providers, while a wave of...
The Islamic State Sahel Threat Is Transnational
The Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) has evolved from a regional insurgency into a transnational hub that coordinates plots across Africa and Europe. Integration with the West Africa chapter and the withdrawal of French and U.S. forces have created a...
Russia’s Sanctions-Busting Cryptocurrency Empire
Russia’s state‑backed fintech A7 has built a crypto‑based sanctions‑evasion network centered on the ruble‑linked token A7A5. Backed by Promsvyazbank and the Kyrgyz firm Old Vector, the platform lets Russian firms swap rubles for A7A5 and instantly convert to dollar‑pegged stablecoins...
Trump Claims ‘Great Progress’ in Iran Peace Talks
President Donald Trump announced "great progress" in Iran peace talks while simultaneously threatening to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The White House has repeatedly extended deadline dates, pairing each...
Will Trump Put Boots on the Ground in Iran?
President Donald Trump has ordered roughly 7,000 additional U.S. troops to the Middle East, bringing the total force under Operation Epic Fury to about 50,000. The administration is weighing a ground assault on Iran's Kharg Island, which handles 90% of...
G-7 Aims to Balance Addressing Russia-Ukraine, Iran Wars
G‑7 foreign ministers gathered in France as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepares to steer the summit toward the Iran conflict, raising the prospect of diverting weapons earmarked for Ukraine. President Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO and push for...
Libya, Iran, and the Limits of Airpower
The United States’ 2026 air campaign against Iran has already logged nearly 8,000 strikes, surpassing the 6,000 targets hit during the 2011 NATO‑led intervention in Libya. Both operations achieved air superiority but failed to produce decisive regime change, leaving the...
On the Iran War, a Deep Disconnect Between Experts and Policymakers
A poll of 641 Middle‑East scholars shows only 5% backed a U.S.–Israeli war on Iran and just 1% expected a pro‑American regime change, while 84% anticipate significant instability in Iran over the next five years. Experts correctly predicted that the...
Iran Rejects Trump’s 15-Point Peace Plan
Iran swiftly dismissed President Trump’s 15‑point peace proposal, issuing a counter‑offer that demands reparations, recognition of Hormuz sovereignty and an end to sanctions, while the U.S. bolstered its presence with an extra 2,000 troops, bringing its regional deployment to roughly...
Syria’s Lessons for Regime Change in Iran
Lina Khatib argues that Syria’s 2011‑2024 upheaval offers a clearer template for any future regime change in Iran than the Iraq experience. She notes that Iran’s missile force and conventional capabilities are eroding under sustained U.S.–Israeli air strikes, while its...
No, China Doesn’t Want Spheres of Influence
Aaron Glasserman argues that China rejects traditional spheres of influence, favoring global economic integration over territorial domination. While Beijing opposes foreign powers encroaching on its sovereignty, it avoids costly military enforcement of exclusive regional control. Instead, China leverages trade, investment,...
What Iran Wants From the War
Iran has abandoned its long‑standing strategy of strategic patience, adopting an offensive deterrence doctrine after the 12‑day war with Israel. The new posture relies on rapid, punitive strikes across the Persian Gulf, leveraging control of the Strait of Hormuz and...
The Follies of Predicting War
Phillips Payson O’Brien’s new book *War and Power* argues that wars are won or lost far beyond sheer firepower, highlighting the 2022 misreading of Russia’s chances in Ukraine. He critiques battle‑centric, realist analyses and proposes a “full‑spectrum power” framework that folds economic...
Can Pakistan and Afghanistan De-Escalate?
The Taliban accused Pakistan of bombing a Kabul hospital, killing more than 400 civilians, the deadliest single incident in their bilateral conflict. Pakistan denied the claim, insisting its strikes targeted militant infrastructure and accusing the Taliban of harboring the Tehrik‑i‑Taliban...
Tehran Vows to Strike Gulf Oil, Gas Facilities
Iran pledged to strike oil and gas facilities across the Persian Gulf after a missile attack damaged its South Pars gas field, a joint Iran‑Qatar reserve. Tehran named Saudi, UAE and Qatari sites as legitimate targets, including the Samref refinery...
Xi Just Can’t Shake GDP Worship
Ahead of the Two Sessions, President Xi released a new collection of speeches emphasizing a "correct view of political performance," signaling a shift away from the GDP‑centric evaluation that has driven China’s bureaucracy for decades. Xi now expects officials to...
BRICS Is Divided on Iran. So Are NATO and the G-7.
BRICS members remain divided over the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with China and Brazil condemning the attacks while India stays neutral and South Africa hesitates. The bloc’s recent expansion to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE has...
‘Made in America’ Should Accept Chinese Investment
The article argues that the United States should stop treating all Chinese capital as a security threat and instead allow limited, well‑structured Chinese investment in non‑sensitive sectors. It cites Trump’s “Made in America” agenda, which welcomes foreign money, and contrasts...
Six U.S. Troops Killed in Aircraft Crash in Iraq
Six U.S. service members died when a KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in western Iraq, with investigators suspecting a mid‑air collision rather than hostile fire. The loss marks the fourth manned U.S. aircraft accident since Operation Epic Fury began, bringing the...
Two Books About the Pull of Home
Foreign Policy’s March 2026 fiction roundup spotlights two major releases – Helen Garner’s collected short fiction and Cecile Pin’s debut space novel “Celestial Lights.” Garner’s volume, issued by Penguin Random House’s Pantheon imprint, gathers stories written in the 1980s‑1990s that examine second‑wave...
How to (Not) Be a Pacific Power
Recent U.S. policy shifts have tightened visa rules for Pacific islanders while scaling back development aid, signaling a move toward militarized, strategic engagement. The United States now requires bonds for visitors from Fiji, Tuvalu and Vanuatu and has placed partial...
Countries Agree to Historic Emergency Oil Reserve Release
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of its 32 member nations, the largest emergency drawdown in its history. The move is designed to offset the abrupt loss of...
How South Africa Is Navigating the Iran War
South Africa is walking a diplomatic tightrope as the United States‑Israel war with Iran intensifies, keeping a non‑aligned posture while trying to repair strained ties with Washington. President Cyril Ramaphosa has launched a probe into Iran’s participation in BRICS+ naval drills...
Iran Threatens to Stop Oil From Leaving the Middle East
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it will block any oil export through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to cut off a route that carries roughly 20% of global crude. The declaration coincided with heightened U.S. strikes in Iran and...
No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran
Israeli officials and U.S. think tanks are warning that Turkey could become a strategic rival comparable to Iran, citing President Erdogan’s authoritarian turn and regional ambitions. The article argues the "new Iran" label is misleading because Turkey lacks Iran’s ideological...
Iran Threat Exposes Britain’s Shrinking Military Reach
Iran‑linked missile and drone attacks on U.S. allies have laid bare Britain’s dwindling ability to defend its forces abroad, highlighted by a recent drone strike on a UK base in Cyprus. The Royal Navy’s withdrawal of its last Gulf frigate...
North Korea Is Getting Serious About Space Weapons
North Korea’s latest five‑year defense plan formally prioritizes “special assets for attacking enemy satellites,” marking its first official commitment to counter‑space weapons. Analysts see this as a potential move toward kinetic or nuclear anti‑satellite (ASAT) systems that could threaten the...
Trump Demands Iran’s ‘Unconditional Surrender’
U.S. President Donald Trump escalated the Iran conflict by demanding an "unconditional surrender," abandoning his earlier willingness to negotiate. The hardline stance coincides with a sharp rise in crude prices—up more than 8%—as the war threatens oil shipments through the...
What in the World?
The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran, prompting diplomatic overtures such as Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim offering to mediate a cease‑fire. Meanwhile, India and Canada agreed to deepen defense cooperation, and the U.S. partnered with Ecuador to target narcoterrorist...