Israel Preparing to Halt Lebanon Combat Operations - Report
Israeli forces announced they will suspend combat operations along the Lebanon border between 7 pm and midnight local time, marking a tentative pause in the ongoing conflict. The move follows a false report from Iranian media that a ceasefire was imminent. Analysts see the pause as a positive signal for renewed peace negotiations in the region. Meanwhile, markets have already priced in a high probability of a broader diplomatic deal, keeping equities at record levels.
US March Industrial Production -0.5% vs +0.1% Expected
U.S. industrial production contracted 0.5% in March, falling short of the 0.1% gain analysts expected. Manufacturing output also slipped 0.1% versus a forecasted 0.1% increase. Capacity utilization eased to 75.7%, down from 76.3% in the prior month. Revised February figures...
Fed's Williams: Seeing Emerging Signs of Supply Chain Disruptions
New York Fed President John Williams warned that the Middle East conflict is already adding to inflation and that new supply‑chain disruptions are re‑emerging. He said monetary policy remains well‑positioned, leaving rates unchanged for now. Williams projects inflation at 2.75‑3%...
US Initial Jobless Claims 207K vs 215K Expected
U.S. initial unemployment claims dropped to 207,000, comfortably beating the 215,000 forecast and marking a decline from last week’s revised 218,000. The four‑week moving average steadied at 209.75 K, signaling a still‑tight labor market despite seasonal noise. Continuing claims rose modestly...
US April Philly Fed Business Index +26.7 vs +10.0 Expected
The Philadelphia Fed’s March manufacturing survey posted a robust index of +26.7, far outpacing the +10.0 forecast. New orders surged to 33.0 and shipments rose to 34.0, marking the strongest activity in months. However, the employment component slipped into negative...
ECB's Kazaks: Market Pricing of Two Rate Hikes This Year Is Reasonable
ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaķs said market pricing of two additional rate hikes in 2024 is reasonable, with a 67 % probability for a June increase and about 50 basis points of tightening priced in by year‑end. The odds of an...
InvestingLive European Markets Wrap: No Rocking the Boat Just Yet
European markets edged higher as investors remained cautiously optimistic while awaiting concrete progress in the US‑Iran nuclear talks. The Nasdaq posted a new record high, its first in five months, buoyed by the same optimism that lifted S&P 500 futures....
All Members Viewed Risks to Inflation Outlook as Tilted to the Upside, ECB Account Shows
The ECB’s Governing Council noted that the recent energy supply shock, amplified by the US‑Iran conflict, has pushed near‑term inflation risks to the upside while longer‑term inflation remains stable. Growth outlook risks are tilted to the downside, prompting the bank...
After 5 Months, the Nasdaq Finally Hits a New Record High Amid US-Iran Deal Optimism
The Nasdaq Composite surged to a fresh all‑time high, its first record in five months, as optimism grew around a potential US‑Iran peace framework. Traders cite the rally that began in early April and the market’s repricing of growth expectations...
Former Fed Chair Yellen Sees One Fed Cut Possible as Iran-Driven Inflation Clouds Outlook.
Janet Yellen, former Fed chair and current Treasury secretary, said a single Federal Reserve rate cut could still occur later in 2024 despite heightened inflation risks from the Iran‑driven energy shock. She noted that short‑term inflation expectations have edged higher...
Iran Clears Missile Base Tunnels During Ceasefire, Signalling Rearmament Risk
Satellite images show Iran using heavy machinery to clear debris from underground missile base tunnels amid the current ceasefire. The tunnels, previously sealed by US and Israeli strikes, are part of “missile cities” built to survive attacks and enable rapid...
Heads up for NZD and CHF Traders, RBNZ Gov Breman and SNB Chair Schlegel to Speak
On 15 April 2026, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Breman and Swiss National Bank Chair Thomas Schlegel will address an audience of traders and analysts. Their joint discussion will focus on how open economies cope with trade fragmentation, volatile capital flows, and...
Much Chatter that Iran Talks to Resume as Ceasefire Extension Discussed
U.S. enforcement of its blockade on Iranian ports showed full compliance in the first 24 hours, with no vessels breaching the restrictions. At the same time, more than 20 oil tankers have recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a...
Trump Says Iran War: "I View It as Very Close to Over."
Former President Donald Trump told Fox News the conflict with Iran is “very close to over,” claiming his intervention prevented Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He warned that if the United States withdrew now, it would take Iran two...
Trump and Vance Goosed the Market - Iran Talks, War Over. Vibe Trading.
U.S. political leaders signaled a de‑escalation in Tehran, with Senator Vance touting a "grand bargain" as the ceasefire holds and former President Trump declaring the conflict "over" in a morning interview. The remarks lifted risk‑off sentiment across Asian exchanges, prompting...
