USDCAD Is Back to Unchanged on the Day. What Next From a Technical Perspective?
The USDCAD pair slipped lower amid broad dollar selling but quickly reclaimed ground, closing back above its 100‑hour moving average at 1.3600 – a psychologically important round number. The next hurdle is the 200‑hour moving average around 1.36316, which aligns with a tight swing‑area resistance between 1.3620 and 1.36305. As long as price remains trapped between the 100‑ and 200‑hour averages, the short‑term bias stays neutral and rotational. A decisive break above the 200‑hour level would open upside pathways toward 1.3652‑1.3668 and eventually the 38.2% retracement near 1.3710.
Gold's Outlook Remains Neutral-to-Bearish Amid Prolonged US-Iran Stalemate and Neutral Fed
Gold’s price continues to slip as the protracted US‑Iran standoff lifts real yields and strengthens the dollar, stripping the metal of the bullish catalysts that buoyed it earlier in the year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s confirmed tenure through 2028...
Switzerland April CPI +0.6% vs +0.6% Y/Y Expected
Switzerland’s consumer price index rose 0.6% in April, matching the market’s year‑on‑year expectation. Core inflation eased to 0.3% year‑on‑year, down from 0.4% in the prior period. The data suggests a modest buffer for the economy, but a persistently strong franc...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
Swiss CPI is projected to rise to 0.6% YoY, up from 0.3% last month, reflecting higher energy costs, though the SNB is expected to look through the shock. In the U.S., the ISM Services PMI is forecast at 53.7, slightly...
Iran Parliament Speaker Says US Has Jeopardised Shipping Security Through Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s parliament speaker warned that U.S. actions have jeopardized shipping and energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz, accusing Washington and its allies of violating a cease‑fire and imposing a blockade. He described the current status quo as intolerable for...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Awaiting the RBA, Expected to Hike by 25bp
The Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to lift its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, with the Australian dollar holding steady ahead of the decision. March household spending jumped 1.6% month‑on‑month and the Services PMI rose to...
Spain April Manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 49.5 Expected
Spain’s HCOB manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index jumped to 51.7 in April, well above the 49.5 consensus and up from 48.7 in March. The reading signals the first sustained expansion in the sector since early 2024. The surprise strength reflects renewed...
ECB's Muller: Inflation to Accelerate in the Coming Months
ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller warned that inflation could accelerate in the coming months, citing the ongoing US‑Iran conflict and volatile energy prices. He said a rate hike is increasingly likely unless the war ends and Brent crude falls...
Iran Says Will "Respond Harshly", Warns the US Against Entering the Strait of Hormuz
Iran warned the United States that any naval move into the Strait of Hormuz will be met with a "harsh response" and demanded that all commercial ships and oil tankers coordinate with Iranian forces before transiting the waterway. Tehran said...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
The Eurozone’s final PMI figures were released after a Labour Day delay, but analysts expect little impact on the European Central Bank’s policy outlook. In the United States, factory‑orders data is slated for release and is similarly viewed as unlikely...
FX Option Expiries for 4 May 10am New York Cut
The May 4, 2026 10 a.m. New York FX option expiries focus on EUR/USD between 1.1700‑1.1750 and AUD/USD at 0.7200. Technical analysis shows the EUR/USD floor near the 200‑day moving average of 1.1675 and upside capped around 1.1800, limiting the expiries' directional power. Market...
Bitcoin Price Analysis Today: Daily Order Flow Turns Bullish as BTC Tests $80k Acceptance
Bitcoin is hovering near $80,328, marking a 2.25% intraday gain as the daily candle remains early. Order‑flow data shows buyers controlling 61.8% of volume and a positive delta of +23.5%, while the point of control (POC) has migrated upward to...
UKMTO Says US Has Established some Security to to Support Transit Along Strait of Hormuz
The UK Maritime Trade Operations confirmed that the United States has established an enhanced security area south of Iran’s transit safety zone (TSS) in the Strait of Hormuz, enabling limited escorted transits. While the move appears to reduce Iranian presence...
Latest Yen Intervention Starting to Develop a Bit of a Pattern
The Japanese Ministry of Finance directed the BOJ to intervene as USD/JPY rose above 157, prompting sharp selling that pulled the pair back toward 155.5‑70. Despite an estimated $35 billion already spent on recent interventions, the yen remains under pressure, with...
USD/JPY Quick Dump
Tokyo intervened in the foreign‑exchange market with roughly $35 billion to curb a sharp yen decline. Officials warned that further action could follow if speculative pressure continues. The intervention was coordinated with U.S. authorities, underscoring bilateral vigilance on currency stability. Market...
Trump Notified Congressional Leaders Today that US Hostilities with Tehran Are Over
President Donald Trump informed congressional leaders that U.S. hostilities with Iran have ended on the 60th day of the conflict, asserting that no further congressional authorization is required. The War Powers Act mandates congressional approval for military actions exceeding 60...
Iran's Latest Proposal Suggests Sanctions Relief in Exchange for Discussing Nuclear File
Iran has floated a new proposal that links nuclear negotiations with the prospect of sanctions relief, signaling a tentative willingness to re‑engage with the United States. Washington, however, remains skeptical, with President Trump publicly expressing dissatisfaction and emphasizing gaps over...
Trump: Not Satisfied with the Latest Iran Proposal, Not Sure We're Going to Get a Deal
President Trump expressed disappointment with Iran's latest proposal and warned that a deal remains uncertain, noting that negotiations are confined to phone calls. He hinted at two stark options: a military strike on Iranian energy assets or a negotiated settlement,...
Trump: Tariffs on European Cars and Trucks Coming Into the US Will Increase to 25%
President Trump announced on Truth Social that tariffs on European‑made cars and trucks will be raised to 25% starting next week, citing perceived non‑compliance with a trade agreement. The move follows a Supreme Court ruling that the first tranche of...
Bitcoin Pushes to Upside and Runs Into Topside Resistance. What Levels Need to Be Broken?
Bitcoin surged past the 100‑hour moving average at $76,638 and the 200‑hour average at $77,267, lifting the session high to $78,924. The rally now sits just shy of the 50% retracement of the 2026 range at $78,928 and confronts a...
Tech Stocks Surge as Healthcare Faces Setbacks
Technology stocks led the market higher, with Oracle surging 5.05% and Microsoft gaining 1.38%, while the broader tech sector benefited from strong demand for cloud and AI services. In contrast, the healthcare index fell as Amgen dropped 4.81%, though Eli Lilly...
ISM Manufacturing Index for April 52,7 vs 53.0 Estimate
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for April slipped to 52.7, missing the 53.0 forecast, yet marking the 18th straight month the index stayed above the 50‑point growth threshold. Prices paid surged to 84.6, a 6.3% month‑over‑month jump and the highest level...
Eurozone April Preliminary CPI +3.0% vs +2.9% Y/Y Expected
Eurozone consumer prices rose 3.0% year‑over‑year in April, the strongest pace since September 2023. The surge is driven primarily by a 10.9% jump in energy inflation, while core CPI held steady at 2.2% and services inflation remained sticky at 3.0%...
Eurozone Q1 Preliminary GDP +0.1% vs +0.2% Q/Q Expected
Eurozone Q1 GDP grew 0.1% quarter‑on‑quarter, missing the 0.2% forecast and slipping from the prior 0.2% gain. Year‑on‑year growth slowed to 0.8% versus the 0.9% consensus. At the same time, core CPI eased to 2.2% from 2.3%, indicating modest inflation...
Japan's Top Currency Diplomat Issues Final Warning Before Action in FX Market
Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Mimura, issued a final warning that Japan may intervene in the foreign‑exchange market, emphasizing close coordination with the United States under the September FX agreement. The warning followed a verbal intervention by Finance Minister Shunichi...
Japan's Katayama: We Are Getting Closer to Taking Decisive Step in FX Market
Japan’s finance ministry signaled a stronger verbal intervention to push the yen higher, treating the 160.00 USD/JPY level as a firm barrier. The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.75% and upgraded inflation forecasts while downgrading growth amid...
Germany Q1 Preliminary GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% Q/Q Expected
Germany’s statistical office Destatis reported on April 30, 2026 that first‑quarter GDP grew 0.3% quarter‑on‑quarter, beating the 0.2% consensus forecast. The economy had expanded 0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a modest acceleration. The data suggest a tentative rebound in...
Germany April Unemployment Change 20k vs 4k Expected
Germany's unemployment rose by 20,000 in April, pushing the total number of jobless to 3.006 million. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.4% after a revision to March figures, marking the highest level since July 2020. The Federal Employment Agency warned...
NIESR Cuts UK Growth Forecast, Warns Iran War Will Keep Inflation Above Target Until 2028
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research slashed its UK GDP outlook, forecasting 0.9% growth in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027, down from 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. Inflation is expected to climb to 4.1% at the start of 2027,...
Chile Holds Rates but Iran War Oil Risk Echoes Across Global Central Banks
Chile's central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.50% for a third straight meeting, a decision that was broadly expected. More notable was the bank’s explicit warning that the Iran‑Israel conflict is worsening beyond its March baseline, raising the...
Private Survey Inventory Shows a Huge Headline Crude Oil Draw Vs. Build Expected
A privately‑conducted API survey indicated a modest 0.3 million‑barrel increase in headline crude inventories, while expectations were for a sizable draw. The upcoming official EIA report, due Wednesday, is anticipated to show a large crude decline, creating a stark contrast between...
Canada Trims Growth Forecasts, Posts Smaller-than-Expected Deficit in Spring Statement
Canada reported a 2025/26 federal deficit of C$66.9 billion (about $49 billion), well under the C$78.3 billion forecast in November. The shortfall reflects tighter spending and higher crude‑oil export revenues. Real GDP growth was trimmed to 1.1% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027,...
InvestingLive Americas Market News: UAE Leaves OPEC, Trump Says Iran Wants to Open Strait
The United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC and OPEC+, cutting its production quota by roughly 300,000 barrels per day. President Trump said Iran has signaled a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a claim echoed by U.S....
Economic and Event Calendar in Asia 29 April 2026 - Triple Ugly Australian Inflation Data
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is set to release March consumer‑price data and the first‑quarter inflation figures, both expected to be markedly higher than forecasts. The headline CPI surge is likely to cement a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate...
Earnings Season Rolls On: Who Is Reporting After the Bell
Today's earnings roster reads like a macroeconomic litmus test, featuring companies whose performance reflects consumer confidence, discretionary spending, and industrial health. Visa, Starbucks and Mondelēz serve as gauges of global and household purchasing power, while NXP Semiconductors and Teradyne tie...
The Market Is Acting Like the War in Iran Is a Non-Factor
The article argues that despite credible reports of 12‑14 million barrels of oil being blocked in the Strait of Hormuz, markets are behaving as if the Iran‑Israel‑Pakistan conflict is irrelevant. Disinformation from the US, Iran, Israel and Pakistan clouds the risk...
Major Central Banks Are up Against a Very Tough Task in Navigating Monetary Policy Next
This week’s central‑bank calendar features the BOJ, BOC, Fed, BOE and ECB, all expected to leave policy rates unchanged despite a nine‑week‑old Middle East war that has kept oil prices elevated. The conflict drives a cost‑push inflation surge that central...
Short-Term Inflation Expectations Rise, Lending Tightens in the Latest ECB's SAFE Survey
The European Central Bank’s latest SAFE survey shows Eurozone firms facing markedly tighter bank lending, with 26% reporting higher loan rates—more than double the previous quarter. Short‑term inflation expectations rose to a 3.0% median, while input‑cost inflation is projected at...
The Indian Rupee Erases All Monthly Gains Amid the US-Iran Stalemate
The Indian rupee wiped out all its monthly gains as the US‑Iran stalemate persisted, while the US dollar faced mixed pressure ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting. Iran’s conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts...
Dollar Lags Even as Risk Mood Keeps More Cautious on the Day
The U.S. dollar slipped on the day while risk sentiment stayed cautious amid stalled US‑Iran talks. EUR/USD rose 0.2% to 1.1745, testing the 200‑hour moving‑average resistance, and AUD/USD rebounded 0.5% to 0.7185, approaching its June‑2022 peak. USD/CAD fell 0.4% to...
Oil Prices Continue to Rise Amid the US-Iran Stalemate; Iran Awaits US Blockade Removal
Oil prices kept climbing as the US‑Iran deadlock deepened, with crude trading above the $93 per barrel resistance. Iran signaled it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the US lifts its maritime blockade, while President Trump insists on a...
Gold Continues to Consolidate Amid the US-Iran Stalemate and the More Hawkish Fed
Gold has been stuck in a month‑long consolidation despite lower real yields, looser financial conditions and a weaker dollar, as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance caps bullish momentum. Even a resolution to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the reopening of the...
The Echo Chamber Harps on Iran Proposing to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Before Nuclear Deal
Iran has floated a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a later start to nuclear negotiations with the United States. The offer ties any easing of the naval blockade to a conditional, phased resumption of commercial...
ECB to Hold the Line at This Week's Meeting - Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs says the European Central Bank is likely to hold rates at its upcoming meeting, with market odds of a hike falling to roughly 20%. The bank projects two 25‑basis‑point increases – one in June and another in September...
Pakistan Talks: Iran Delivered Both Their Demands and Reservations About US Demands
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi met Pakistani officials in Islamabad, delivering Tehran's demands and reservations regarding U.S. conditions for renewed talks. Tehran reiterated that it will not negotiate while the United States maintains red lines, specifically demanding the lifting...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap. Trump: 3-Week Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Extension
Former President Donald Trump warned Americans to expect higher gas prices as the Iran‑related oil blockade tightens, adding an inflationary edge to an already delicate Fed outlook. He announced a three‑week extension of the Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire via Truth Social, though...
Trump to Address Top $TRUMP Meme Coin Holders at Mar-a-Lago Crypto Summit Saturday 25 Apr.
President Donald Trump will deliver a keynote at a crypto summit hosted at Mar‑a‑Lago on April 26, with attendance restricted to the 297 largest holders of the $TRUMP meme coin. The White House confirmed the appearance, sparking criticism from Democrats...
Israel UN Envoy Warns Lebanon Ceasefire Extension "Not 100%" Despite White House Deal
President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire has been extended by three weeks following a high‑level Oval Office meeting that included senior U.S., Israeli and Lebanese officials. Israeli UN Ambassador Danny Danon told CNN the extension...
ICYMI: Iran War Forces Asia Refiners to Slash Runs, Putting Diesel and Jet Supply at Risk
The Iran‑Israel conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, slashing Asia’s crude imports by about 22% year‑on‑year to a 10‑year low of roughly 20.4 million barrels per day in April. Refinery runs are projected to dip to around 28.5 million bpd through...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8674 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8400)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8674, slightly weaker than the Reuters estimate of 6.8400. The central bank maintains a ±2% trading band around this midpoint, allowing the yuan to fluctuate within that range....