US March Budget Deficit for March -$164.00 Billion versus -$156.75 Billion Estimate
The U.S. federal budget posted a $164 billion deficit for March, missing the $156.75 billion forecast and slightly widening from the $161 billion deficit a year earlier. Year‑to‑date for fiscal 2026, the deficit fell 11% to $1.169 trillion versus $1.307 trillion in 2025. March revenues hit a record $385 billion, driven by higher individual and corporate tax refunds, while customs collections slipped to $22.2 billion. Defense outlays rose 3% and war‑related spending remains pending, adding uncertainty to future deficits.
Baker Hughes Rig Count -3 at 545
The Baker Hughes weekly rig count slipped by three to a total of 545 rigs, with oil rigs unchanged at 411 and natural‑gas rigs falling to 127. Crude oil prices nudged up $0.57 to $98.45 per barrel, yet the weekly...
Major European Indices Close Mixed. Higher for the Week.
European equity markets ended the day with mixed moves, as Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.59% to just below its 2000‑era peak and Spain's Ibex climbed 0.55% toward its historic high. Germany's DAX slipped 0.01% while France's CAC 40 edged up...
US February PCE Inflation 2.8% Y/Y vs 2.8% Expected
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation held steady at 2.8% year‑over‑year in February, matching the consensus forecast. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose to 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8% in January and also met expectations. While headline...
US Initial Jobless Claims 219K vs 210K Estimate
U.S. initial jobless claims climbed to 219,000 last week, missing the 210,000 forecast and nudging the four‑week average to 209.5K. Continuing claims eased to 1.794 million, also below expectations. The data suggests a modest softening but the labor market remains historically...
US Final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% Expected
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the final fourth‑quarter 2023 GDP figure, showing a 0.5% annualized increase—below the 0.7% consensus estimate. The downgrade stems mainly from a downward revision to investment, while consumer spending and corporate profits still posted...
The USD Is Mixed vs the Major Currencies to Kickstart the Thursday Trading
The US dollar showed mixed performance Thursday, edging higher against the yen while slipping modestly versus the euro and pound. The move comes amid lingering uncertainty over a potential cease‑fire in the Israel‑Iran conflict, which has driven oil prices up...
InvestingLive European Markets Wrap: Oil Prices Bounce on Fragile US-Iran Truce
Oil prices rebounded sharply, with WTI crude up 4.5% to $98.56, as the fragile U.S.-Iran cease‑fire remained under pressure. Iranian officials claimed the truce had already been violated, while former President Trump warned of renewed strikes if negotiations fail. European...
How Have Interest Rate Expectations Changed After the Ceasefire Announcement?
After the ceasefire announcement, market pricing shows a broadly dovish repricing of interest‑rate expectations as inflation worries ease. The Fed now shows a 7‑basis‑point cut probability with a 98% chance of holding rates at the next meeting. Most other central...
US CPI Report Coming up Tomorrow, What to Expect?
The March U.S. Consumer Price Index is slated for release tomorrow, with economists projecting a 0.9% month‑over‑month rise in headline CPI, up from 0.3% in February, and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. Core CPI is expected to climb 0.3% m/m, translating...
Dollar Holds Steadier Today as Fragile US-Iran Truce Keeps Traders Guessing
The U.S. dollar held modest gains on Thursday as traders remained cautious amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Risk‑off sentiment tempered the rally, leaving European equity indices slightly lower and the DAX still riding yesterday’s 5% surge. In the FX market,...
Bank of Korea Seen Holding Rates on April 10 as Oil Shock Lifts Inflation Risks
The Bank of Korea is expected to leave its base rate at 2.50% during the April 10 meeting, as a unanimous Reuters poll of 31 economists predicts no change. A sharp oil price jump of more than 50% has heightened...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Central Rate at 6.8680 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8369)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central reference rate at 6.8680 for the current trading session, modestly weaker than the Reuters estimate of 6.8369. The central bank maintains a +/-2% daily trading band around this reference, allowing...
Japan Real Wages Jump Most in Five Years, Boosting BoJ Hike Expectations
Japan's February data showed real wages jumping 1.9% year‑on‑year, the strongest increase in five years, while nominal wages rose 3.3% – the fastest pace in seven months. Base‑pay growth hit 3.3%, marking the biggest surge in roughly 34 years and...
Anthropic Warns New AI Model Could Accelerate Cyberattacks, Refuses Release
Anthropic is withholding its newest AI system, Claude Mythos, because it believes the model could dramatically accelerate cyberattacks if released publicly. Instead, the company is sharing a preview with a handful of large enterprises—including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and JPMorgan—to help...
Trump Ceasefire Announcement Still to Be Agreed to by Iran. Markets Rejoicing Though.
Former President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of U.S. bombing campaigns against Iran, framing it as a provisional cease‑fire. The pause is conditional on Tehran’s immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit chokepoint....
Nasdaq Technical Analysis at investingLive Shows Bulls Are Good After All
Nasdaq futures are trading above the critical 23,100‑23,120 support zone, preserving a bullish structure that has delivered roughly a 4.5% rally since March. A double rejection at the 23,400 resistance level reinforced the market’s upward bias, while higher lows continue...
What Is the Distribution of Forecasts for the US NFP?
The article explains how the distribution of U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) forecasts can shape market reactions, even when actual data falls within the reported range. Analysts tend to cluster estimates toward the upper bound, so a reading near the lower...
Bitcoin Analysis and Price Prediction Score Today at investingLive.com
InvestingLive.com gave Bitcoin futures a -2.5 score today, indicating a slightly bearish short‑term outlook. Buyers pushed the price up to the 67,250 zone mid‑session, but momentum faded and the market slipped back toward the 66,750 fallback area. The score reflects...
Japan Services PMI Eases with Cost Pressures Rising and Confidence Weakening
Japan’s services sector continued expanding in March but its momentum eased, with the S&P Global Services PMI slipping to 53.4 from 53.8. New orders fell to a three‑month low while input‑price inflation surged, driven by higher energy costs and the...
A Holiday Across Much of Asia, but Japan Is Open. We Get PMI Data From There & From China
A rare Good Friday holiday left most of Asia quiet, but Japan stayed open and released its latest services PMI. China also published its services PMI, adding to a week of mixed manufacturing data from both economies. Japan’s services sector...
Trump to Overhaul Steel, Aluminium Tariffs, Lifting Effective Import Costs
The Trump administration is preparing a major overhaul of the Section 232 steel and aluminium tariff regime, proposing a flat 25% duty on the full customs value of finished goods containing these metals. While the headline rate is lower than the...
Event Calendar in Asia Thursday, April 2, 2026 - Trump Will Be Speaking
Former President Donald Trump addressed the ongoing Iran conflict, stating the war is winding down and launching a sharp critique of NATO. The remarks came as U.S. forces continue to move into the Middle East, fueling speculation about a possible...
Trump Will Say the Iran War Is "Winding Down" In Address, Will Criticize NATO
Former President Donald Trump announced a 9 pm address in which he will declare the Iran‑related Gulf war "winding down" and claim that all U.S. military objectives have been achieved. He is expected to place blame on NATO allies for the...
NZDUSD Backs Off After 200 Hour Is Approached and Sellers Lean
The NZD/USD pair surged but stalled at key technical levels, failing to sustain a break above the 38.2% retracement around 0.57714 and the 200‑hour moving average at 0.57808. After peaking at 0.57764, price reversed and is now testing the 100‑hour...
JOLTs Job Openings for February 6.882 Million versus 6.918 Million Estimate
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report shows February job openings at 6.882 million, missing the 6.918 million forecast. Hires slipped to 4.849 million, while quits fell to 2.974 million, indicating waning worker confidence. Layoffs and discharges rose modestly to 1.721 million. These figures suggest a cooling...
USDCAD Moved Above a Swing Area and Increases the Bullish Bias.
The USDCAD pair has broken back above the 1.3924‑1.3937 swing zone, shifting the bias firmly bullish. Buyers are anchored by a solid 61.8% retracement floor at 1.3888 and have kept the price above the 200‑bar moving average. Technical momentum points...
US January CaseShiller 20-City House Price Index +1.2% vs +1.3% Y/Y Expected
The Case‑Shiller 20‑city home price index rose 1.2% year‑over‑year in January, missing the 1.3% forecast. Monthly growth slowed to 0.2%, also below expectations. FHFA data showed a 1.6% YoY increase, down from 1.8% in the prior month. Higher mortgage rates...
Canada January GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% Expected
Canada’s economy posted a modest 0.1% month‑on‑month GDP gain in January, just edging out the 0.0% consensus. Annual growth slowed to 1.7%, the weakest pace since the pandemic‑induced contraction of 2020. The fourth quarter saw a 0.6% annualized output decline,...
Month-End Flows Point to Dollar Buying Into the Fix - BofA
Bank of America’s month‑end fixing model shows the U.S. dollar as the clear beneficiary as March and Q1 close, forecasting material inflows of about one standard deviation into USD assets. The model also predicts modest euro inflows and outflows from...
Market Outlook for the Week of 30th March - 3rd April
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
Prediction Markets Are No Longer Just Getting Faster than Traditional Coverage
Prediction markets are evolving from merely forecasting outcomes to pricing the timing and sequence of macro‑shocks. Recent geopolitical tension, oil spikes and a five‑week equity sell‑off provide a backdrop, while ICE’s $600 million investment in Polymarket signals mainstream acceptance. Markets now...
China January - February Industrial Profits Rocket Higher, +15.2% Ytd Y/Y (Prior +0.6%)
China’s industrial sector posted a 15.2% year‑on‑year profit surge in the January‑February period, a dramatic acceleration from the modest 0.6% gain recorded for the entire previous year. The rebound is anchored in stronger export orders, renewed domestic demand and targeted...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.9089 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9089, a key daily fixing watched across Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system permits the yuan to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint. The...
Barclays: ECB Set to Hike as Energy Shock Hits Europe, Fed Likely to Stay on Hold
Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will begin tightening as early as next month, with two rate hikes anticipated in 2024, driven by a renewed energy‑inflation shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected...
Venezuela Oil Output Rises to 1.1 Mln Bpd as Sector Recovery Gains Traction
Venezuela’s oil production climbed to roughly 1.1 million barrels per day in March, up from about 942,000 bpd in January. The rebound reflects easing U.S. sanctions, better access to diluents and a modest return of export flows, bringing output back to pre‑disruption...
Trump May Announce Iran Ceasefire Even WITHOUT a Deal, Israeli Media Reports
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a public cease‑fire announcement with Iran as early as Saturday, even if no formal agreement is in place. Israeli officials, cited by outlets such as N12 and Al Qahera, view the move as...
Fed's Miran, Trump's Puppet at the Bank, Calls for Rate Cuts, Like He Always Does
Federal Reserve Governor Miran delivered a strongly dovish speech, arguing that inflation risks are muted despite a recent oil price surge. He cited measurement challenges and minimal impact on market inflation expectations, while warning that the labor market is on...
SNB Chairman: We Are Prepared to Introduce Negative Rates but the Hurdle Is High
Swiss National Bank Chairman announced that the central bank is prepared to push policy rates into negative territory, but acknowledges a high hurdle before such a move. He emphasized that while the policy rate remains the primary tool, foreign‑exchange intervention...
A Technical Look at the Broader US Stock Indices with a Bonus Look at Nvidia
Nvidia’s shares slipped below their 200‑day moving average at $178.78, marking the first breach since May 2025 and signaling a bearish tilt. The broader market mirrored this move, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also closing beneath their respective 200‑day...
Tech Falters While Energy Surges: Today's Market Analysis
The technology sector posted sharp declines on the day, with Microsoft down 2.67% and Oracle slipping 4.10%, signaling heightened bearish sentiment. In contrast, the energy sector rallied, led by Exxon Mobil’s 2.94% gain and Chevron’s 1.88% rise, buoyed by higher...
Crude Oil Futures Higher on the Day but Remains Below Target Bullish Bias Levels
Crude oil futures experienced a dramatic swing from $84.37 to $101.67 after President Trump’s Truth Social remarks, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical headlines. The contract now sits near $92.68, just below the 50% midpoint of $93.02, keeping sellers in...
S&P 500 Skyrockets as Trump Announces Ceasefire. Real TACO or Just Usual Jawboning?
U.S. equity markets surged as former President Donald Trump posted a cease‑fire announcement on Truth Social, prompting the S&P 500 to bounce sharply from near‑term lows. Technical charts show the index probing the 6,760 resistance level, with sellers poised to...
Iran Media Reportedly Says There Has Been No Direct or Indirect Contact with Trump
Iranian media reported that there was no direct or indirect contact between former President Donald Trump and Tehran after Trump threatened to attack West Asian energy facilities. The claim, relayed by energy‑market analyst Amena Bakr, suggests Trump withdrew his stance...
UAE Resumes Operations at Its Largest Gas Processing Facility After Shutdown Last Week
The United Arab Emirates has restarted its Habshan gas‑processing complex, the nation’s largest facility, after a week‑long shutdown triggered by Iranian attacks. The plant now supplies the domestic gas network, drawing fuel from Qatar via the Dolphin pipeline, but the...
Stocks Close the Day Lower. Dow -1.0%. S&P -1.5% Nasdaq -2.0
U.S. equity markets closed lower on the day, with the Dow down 1.0%, the S&P 500 down 1.5% and the Nasdaq slipping 2.0%. All three benchmarks finished the session beneath their 200‑day moving averages, a technical signal of sustained weakness....
Trump on Opening the Strait of Hormuz: You Need a Lot of Help
Former President Donald Trump asserted that the United States will not pursue a ceasefire with Iran, insisting on unconditional surrender while emphasizing the U.S. military’s abundant ammunition and troop levels. He suggested that China and Japan could play a role...
US Made Detailed Preparations for Potential Ground Troops in Iran - Report
Pentagon officials have drafted detailed plans to deploy U.S. ground forces into Iran, including two Marine units of roughly 2,200 troops each. The first unit is slated to arrive from Japan early next week, with a second sailing from California...
US Assessment: Iran Could Keep Hormuz Shut for Anywhere From One to Six Months
U.S. defense analysts warn Iran could shut the Strait of Hormuz for one to six months, creating a prolonged maritime bottleneck. The assessment, based on multiple sources, highlights the logistical nightmare of escorting tankers, which may need several destroyers per...