Japan FinMin Katayama Warns of Decisive Action on Speculation
Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Katayama warned that speculative trading in oil markets has risen sharply and said Tokyo will take decisive action in coordination with the United States. He emphasized that the existing Japan‑U.S. currency swap lines remain unchanged, providing a stable dollar‑liquidity backstop. The remarks constitute a classic verbal intervention aimed at curbing momentum‑driven bets amid the Iran‑driven energy shock. The warning signals heightened vigilance as higher crude prices threaten Japan’s inflation outlook and corporate margins.
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8400 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8400, a key daily fixing watched by Asian FX markets. China’s managed‑floating system anchors the yuan within a ±2% band around the midpoint, which the PBOC...
Tech Giants Surge as Semiconductors Lead a Bullish Wave
Tech and consumer‑cyclical stocks led a broad market uplift, with semiconductors at the forefront. Micron jumped 5.09% and AMD rose 3.74%, while Apple gained 2.20% on strong sales outlooks. Big‑tech giants Microsoft and Alphabet each added around 1.7%, and Amazon...
Trump Has Not Set a Timeline for the Extension of the Ceasefire - Report
President Trump has not provided a definitive timeline for extending the cease‑fire in the Middle East, despite earlier speculation of a 3‑5‑day window. The administration appears to be adopting a wait‑and‑see stance as Iran escalates tensions by firing on three...
US EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories +1925K vs -1200K Expected
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude oil inventories rose by 1.925 million barrels for the week ending April 10, far above the 1.2 million‑barrel draw analysts expected. Gasoline stocks plunged 4.57 million barrels and distillate inventories fell 3.43 million barrels, both exceeding forecasted declines....
Bitcoin Climbs to the Highest Since Early February
Bitcoin surged past the $65,000‑$66,000 zone, marking its highest level since early February and hinting at a potential breakout toward the $90,000 resistance line. The rally follows a series of higher lows and higher highs that suggest sustained upward momentum,...
April Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence -20.6 vs -16.3 Prior
The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator slipped to a flash reading of -20.6 in April, worsening from the prior -16.3 level and marking the weakest sentiment since October 2023. The decline was driven by sharper pessimism about the overall economy, personal...
Germany Cuts GDP Forecast in Half on the Iran War
Germany has halved its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5% and lowered the 2027 outlook to 0.9% amid the escalating Iran‑related war. The Bundesbank warns that the full economic drag from the Middle‑East conflict will hit later, with inflation...
ECB's Simkus: The ECB Shouldn't Raise Interest Rates in April
ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said an interest‑rate increase at the April meeting is unlikely, reflecting the current view that the deposit facility rate of 2.00% remains appropriate. Core inflation is hovering around the 2% target, even as headline...
Iran Seizes, Attacks Two Cargo Ships Trying to Cross Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging a Greek‑flagged ship’s bridge and a Panama‑flagged carrier’s hull before ordering it to anchor. The attacks occurred despite no radio warning, with Iran’s state...
UK February ILO Unemployment Rate 4.9% vs 5.2% Expected
The UK unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% in February, beating the 5.2% forecast and marking the lowest level since August 2023. Meanwhile, payrolls were revised down by 11,000 jobs, indicating a continued decline in employment. The claimant count rose sharply...
FX Option Expiries for 21 April 10am New York Cut
InvestingLive notes two FX option expiries on 21 April at 10 a.m. New York time, both for EUR/USD at the 1.1760 and 1.1800 strikes. The pair is currently confined between a 200‑hour moving‑average floor around 1.1752 and a daily ceiling at 1.1800, forming...
The Cautious Optimism Holds as Markets Wait on US-Iran Talks Next
Iran has re‑imposed a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a hard‑line stance ahead of upcoming US‑Iran talks. President Trump is publicly confident a new deal will surpass the 2015 JCPOA, fueling market optimism despite mixed signals. Oil...
Trump Says Extracting the Nuclear Dust Destroyed in Iran Will Be Difficult and Lengthy
Former President Donald Trump tweeted that extracting the nuclear debris left after Operation Midnight Hammer in Iran will be a long and difficult undertaking. He implied the United States may be preparing a diplomatic framework that sidesteps the need to...
InvestingLive Asia-Pacific FX News Wrap: Vance Heading to Pakistan for Talks with Iran
Vice President JD Vance is set to travel to Islamabad for a cease‑fire negotiation with Iran after the Supreme Leader approved a delegation, despite Tehran’s public rejection of talks under pressure. The diplomatic effort aims to avert escalation in the...
Westpac Sees US Dollar Weakening as Markets Look Through Energy Shock and Tensions
Westpac argues that despite heightened Middle East tensions, the U.S. dollar is losing steam as markets price a gradual normalization of shipping flows and improving global trade. The bank forecasts the U.S. Dollar Index falling from the high‑90s to the...
Recapping - NZD Rises After CPI Beat as Markets Price Higher Odds of May RBNZ Rate Hike
New Zealand’s consumer price index rose 0.9% in the March quarter, leaving annual inflation at 3.1%—still above the Reserve Bank’s 1‑3% target. The surprise pushed the market’s implied probability of a May RBNZ rate hike to roughly 45%, up from...
China Shows Resilience to Energy Shock but Weak Demand Limits Growth Outlook, Fitch Says
Fitch Ratings says China’s economy has withstood the latest global energy shock thanks to diversified import sources and strong policy backing, but the resilience is offset by persistently weak consumer demand. Household spending remains flat, keeping overall growth uneven. The...
InvestingLive Americas Market News Wrap: Iran Says Hormuz Is Open, Oil Plunges
Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open, prompting a $10‑per‑barrel drop in oil prices and a brief rally in equities, with the Nasdaq posting its 13th straight session of gains. The U.S. dollar initially sold off, the...
Israel Preparing to Halt Lebanon Combat Operations - Report
Israeli forces announced they will suspend combat operations along the Lebanon border between 7 pm and midnight local time, marking a tentative pause in the ongoing conflict. The move follows a false report from Iranian media that a ceasefire was imminent....
US March Industrial Production -0.5% vs +0.1% Expected
U.S. industrial production contracted 0.5% in March, falling short of the 0.1% gain analysts expected. Manufacturing output also slipped 0.1% versus a forecasted 0.1% increase. Capacity utilization eased to 75.7%, down from 76.3% in the prior month. Revised February figures...
US Initial Jobless Claims 207K vs 215K Expected
U.S. initial unemployment claims dropped to 207,000, comfortably beating the 215,000 forecast and marking a decline from last week’s revised 218,000. The four‑week moving average steadied at 209.75 K, signaling a still‑tight labor market despite seasonal noise. Continuing claims rose modestly...
US April Philly Fed Business Index +26.7 vs +10.0 Expected
The Philadelphia Fed’s March manufacturing survey posted a robust index of +26.7, far outpacing the +10.0 forecast. New orders surged to 33.0 and shipments rose to 34.0, marking the strongest activity in months. However, the employment component slipped into negative...
ECB's Kazaks: Market Pricing of Two Rate Hikes This Year Is Reasonable
ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaķs said market pricing of two additional rate hikes in 2024 is reasonable, with a 67 % probability for a June increase and about 50 basis points of tightening priced in by year‑end. The odds of an...
InvestingLive European Markets Wrap: No Rocking the Boat Just Yet
European markets edged higher as investors remained cautiously optimistic while awaiting concrete progress in the US‑Iran nuclear talks. The Nasdaq posted a new record high, its first in five months, buoyed by the same optimism that lifted S&P 500 futures....
All Members Viewed Risks to Inflation Outlook as Tilted to the Upside, ECB Account Shows
The ECB’s Governing Council noted that the recent energy supply shock, amplified by the US‑Iran conflict, has pushed near‑term inflation risks to the upside while longer‑term inflation remains stable. Growth outlook risks are tilted to the downside, prompting the bank...
After 5 Months, the Nasdaq Finally Hits a New Record High Amid US-Iran Deal Optimism
The Nasdaq Composite surged to a fresh all‑time high, its first record in five months, as optimism grew around a potential US‑Iran peace framework. Traders cite the rally that began in early April and the market’s repricing of growth expectations...
Former Fed Chair Yellen Sees One Fed Cut Possible as Iran-Driven Inflation Clouds Outlook.
Janet Yellen, former Fed chair and current Treasury secretary, said a single Federal Reserve rate cut could still occur later in 2024 despite heightened inflation risks from the Iran‑driven energy shock. She noted that short‑term inflation expectations have edged higher...
Iran Clears Missile Base Tunnels During Ceasefire, Signalling Rearmament Risk
Satellite images show Iran using heavy machinery to clear debris from underground missile base tunnels amid the current ceasefire. The tunnels, previously sealed by US and Israeli strikes, are part of “missile cities” built to survive attacks and enable rapid...
Heads up for NZD and CHF Traders, RBNZ Gov Breman and SNB Chair Schlegel to Speak
On 15 April 2026, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Breman and Swiss National Bank Chair Thomas Schlegel will address an audience of traders and analysts. Their joint discussion will focus on how open economies cope with trade fragmentation, volatile capital flows, and...
Much Chatter that Iran Talks to Resume as Ceasefire Extension Discussed
U.S. enforcement of its blockade on Iranian ports showed full compliance in the first 24 hours, with no vessels breaching the restrictions. At the same time, more than 20 oil tankers have recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a...
Trump Says Iran War: "I View It as Very Close to Over."
Former President Donald Trump told Fox News the conflict with Iran is “very close to over,” claiming his intervention prevented Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. He warned that if the United States withdrew now, it would take Iran two...
Trump and Vance Goosed the Market - Iran Talks, War Over. Vibe Trading.
U.S. political leaders signaled a de‑escalation in Tehran, with Senator Vance touting a "grand bargain" as the ceasefire holds and former President Trump declaring the conflict "over" in a morning interview. The remarks lifted risk‑off sentiment across Asian exchanges, prompting...
Australian Jobs Data Preview: Labour Data to Miss Iran Impact, Slowdown Seen Later
Westpac’s preview of Australia’s March labour force report suggests the data will show little immediate impact from the Iran war, with employment projected to rise by about 25,000 and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.2%. The bank warns that the...
Euro Continues to Climb as the Market Senses an End to the Iran War
The euro has recovered to its pre‑conflict level as traders price an end to the Iran‑Israel war and the reopening of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe’s heavy reliance on Hormuz‑bound crude makes the currency especially sensitive to...
Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Futures Show This Will Be a Short-Run Problem (Why He's Wrong)
Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee argued that the steeply backwardated oil futures curve proves the current price spike is a short‑run issue. The article counters that backwardation reflects immediate physical scarcity and a high convenience yield, not a forecast of...
US-Iran Direct Talks May Resume on Thursday
U.S. and Iranian officials are set to meet again on Thursday in Islamabad for a fourth round of direct nuclear negotiations, according to a Tehran source reported by the Atlantic. The talks follow a series of stalled discussions and suggest...
Trump: We Were Called This Morning by the Right People From Iran
Former President Donald Trump claimed that senior Iranian officials contacted his team early Thursday, signaling a possible breakthrough in nuclear negotiations. He asserted that the sticking point is Iran’s refusal to renounce a nuclear weapon, but suggested Tehran may now...
Iran Thought They Were Close to an Agreement on Sunday Morning - Report
According to an Axios report, Iran thought a nuclear agreement was imminent on Sunday morning, but the sudden departure of U.S. Senator JD Vance from talks in Pakistan derailed expectations. The negotiations are stalled over whether Tehran will cease all...
Stock Market Update: Tech Giants Propel Amid Semiconductor Strains
Technology stocks led market gains while semiconductors slipped. Microsoft rose 1.8% and Oracle surged 7.3%, boosting the software‑infrastructure segment. Micron fell 2.1% and Nvidia edged down, highlighting pressure on chips. Investors remain cautiously optimistic, favoring resilient tech over volatile semiconductor...
US Stocks Turn Positive as US Naval Blockade of Iran Goes Into Force
U.S. equity markets rose as the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz took effect at 10 a.m. ET. Traders view the move as a diplomatic signal rather than an escalation, keeping the S&P 500 within 200 points of pre‑war levels....
US March Existing Home Sales 3.98m vs 4.06m Expected
March existing‑home sales slipped to an annualized 3.98 million units, missing the 4.06 million consensus and falling short of February’s 4.09 million pace. The market posted a 3.6% month‑over‑month decline after a 2.7% gain in February, while the median price rose 1.4% year‑over‑year...
Iran Officials Are Studying Abandoning Enrichment - Report
Iranian officials are reportedly evaluating a proposal to abandon uranium enrichment in exchange for broader economic concessions, a notion that has circulated in U.S. media after Vice President JD Vance outlined a potential deal. The story, initially sourced to the...
Hopium: A Second Round of US-Iran Talks Could Be Held Within Days (WSJ Cite Officials)
High‑level US‑Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, but officials say a second round could be convened within days. Core disputes linger over unrestricted Hormuz navigation, the size of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, and the release of roughly...
EU Politics - Orban Lost the Hungarian Election. Landslide Opposition Win. EUR Impact.
Hungary’s snap election delivered a landslide defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, ending his 16‑year tenure as the country’s illiberal leader. The pro‑EU centre‑right Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, is projected to secure a two‑thirds parliamentary majority with record‑high...
Monday Open Levels, Indicative FX Prices, 13 April 2026
U.S. President Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after US‑Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend. The move sparked an immediate rise in the U.S. dollar as investors sought safety amid heightened geopolitical risk. Analysts expect crude...
Iran Delegation Arrives in Pakistan
Iranian officials led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf touched down at Islamabad's Nur Khan Airbase, escorted by the Pakistani Air Force. The delegation, which includes the foreign minister, defence council secretary, central bank governor and several MPs, is en...
GBPUSD Will Have the Ceiling to Define the Bias in the New Trading Week
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the lower edge of a well‑defined resistance ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 that has capped upside for six weeks. Buyers remain active, but a break above the ceiling would force short covering and spark...
Isreal Wil Announce Its Commitment to a Ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut Time
Israel is set to announce a formal ceasefire commitment at 4 AM Beirut time, opening a diplomatic pathway for U.S.-Iran peace talks this weekend. The negotiations will be mediated by Pakistan and feature a U.S. delegation led by JD Vance, with...
Crude Oil Futures Settles at $96.57. Down Sharply on the Week
Crude oil futures settled at $96.57 on Friday, down 1.33% for the day and 14.3% for the week. Prices remain below the 100‑hour ($102.87) and 200‑hour ($103.57) moving averages, reflecting market discounting a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz...