InvestingLive Americas FX News Wrap 25 May: Diplomacy Hopes Hit Oil, Lift Risk
U.S. and Iranian negotiators are inching toward a preliminary memorandum that could include a 60‑day cease‑fire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The talks also touch on limited sanctions waivers, temporary oil export permissions, and the contentious enriched‑uranium stockpile. Markets responded to the diplomatic optimism as Brent‑linked crude slid to $90.30 per barrel, pulling the U.S. dollar lower against major currencies. Meanwhile, precious metals rallied and S&P 500 e‑mini futures rose nearly 1%, reflecting a modest risk‑off shift.
US and Iran Plan to Open the Strait of Hormuz in About 30 Days
The United States and Iran have agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within roughly 30 days, with plans to clear mines, waive transit tolls, and extend the cease‑fire for another 60 days. The nuclear‑related components of the broader agreement,...
Crude Oil Extends Lower and Stalls the Fall at a Trend Line Target
Crude oil slid sharply on optimism for a diplomatic breakthrough in the Iran conflict, dipping to a low of $90.32 before buyers anchored the market at an upward‑sloping trend line that links the late‑February and April lows. The price has...
Al Arabiya: Iran Is Demanding Highly Enriched Uranium Be Transferred to China
Iran is reportedly demanding that its highly enriched uranium be transferred to China as part of ongoing negotiations. Tehran says it is prepared to remove the material from its own territory, presenting the move as a de‑escalation gesture. The United...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8318 (Vs. Estimate at 6.7880)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8318, slightly weaker than the Reuters estimate of 6.7880. The central bank maintains a +/-2% trading band around the fixing, allowing the yuan to fluctuate within that range....
NZIER Shadow Board Backs RBNZ Hold This Week (May 27) at 2.25% but Rate Rises Seen Ahead
The NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board largely recommends that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keep the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% in the May 27 decision, citing subdued growth, spare capacity and external uncertainty from the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict. A...
Morgan Stanley Sets a Base Case TOPIX Target of 4,300, with Japan Preferred
Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish view on Japan, forecasting a slight dip into negative nominal GDP this year before a rebound above 4 percent by 2026. The bank attributes the near‑term drag to an energy‑price shock that lifted producer‑price inflation to...
Australian Dollar Under Pressure Say Analysts as RBA Rate-Hike Cycle Seen Nearing Its End
The Australian dollar slipped from a four‑year peak of 0.726 USD after soft Chinese retail data and a rise in domestic unemployment to 4.5%. While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has delivered three consecutive rate hikes, recent minutes and a...
Economic and Event Calendar in Asia Friday, May 22, 2026 - Japan CPI, ECB's Lane Speaking
Japan’s core consumer‑price index is expected to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a third straight month, reinforcing calls for a cautious stance on further rate hikes. The data release coincides with the Asian Monetary Policy Forum...
Sources: ECB Rate Hike Very Likely in June
Eurozone policymakers are converging on a June rate hike as inflation remains anchored above target, driven by persistently high energy costs. While the ECB is likely to raise rates in June, officials are reluctant to pledge a July increase, preferring...
Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Fall -7.863M vs -2.942M Estimate
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 7.86 million‑barrel drawdown in crude oil inventories, far exceeding the 2.94 million‑barrel decline analysts expected. Private data released later showed an even larger 9.1 million‑barrel drop, while gasoline stocks fell 1.55 million barrels and distillates rose 0.37 million...
BOE Bailey: Financial Market Tightening Gives Us some Time to Assess Raiseing Rates or Not
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and other MPC members said recent financial market tightening gives the central bank breathing room to evaluate whether further rate hikes are needed. They highlighted a softening outlook for growth and the labour market,...
US Stocks on Pace for a Higher Open
U.S. equity futures point to a higher open, with the Nasdaq gaining roughly 200 points and the S&P 500 up about 28 points in pre‑market trade. Oil prices slipped by $2 and Treasury yields dipped 2 basis points, signaling modest...
USDCAD Moves to a New High Going Back to Mid-April, but Backs Off. What Next?
The USDCAD pair has been on an upward trajectory since its May 1 low, climbing to its highest level since mid‑April after testing the rising 100‑hour moving average at 1.37457. A brief pullback saw the pair retreat below that peak, refocusing...
ICYMI (Monday): Japan Signals FX Intervention Readiness, Vowing to Shield US Bond Market
Japan’s finance minister Satsuki Katayama told G7 leaders that Tokyo stands ready to intervene against excessive yen volatility at any time, while emphasizing that any action will be funded without selling U.S. Treasury holdings. The ministry disclosed that Japan has...
Japan Economy Minister Backs Recovery but Warns of Middle East Conflict Fallout Risk
Japan's economy minister Yoshitaka Kiuchi said the country is on a moderate recovery path, citing a 2.1% annualised Q1 GDP growth, strong wage‑negotiation momentum and improving job conditions. He warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could disrupt oil supplies,...
RBA Minutes: Eight of Nine Members Backed May Hike as Inflation Expectations Risk Grew
The Reserve Bank of Australia voted 8‑1 to raise the cash rate to 4.35%, reversing the 2025 easing. Board members cited rising inflation risks from the Gulf conflict and a threat that long‑term inflation expectations could become de‑anchored. The majority...
Japan Q1 GDP Beats Forecasts at 2.1% but Iran War Energy Shock Threatens Momentum
Japan's economy posted a 2.1% annualised expansion in Q1, surpassing the 1.7% consensus and beating the revised 0.8% gain recorded in Q4. Growth was driven by modest gains in private consumption, capital expenditure and net external demand, while the GDP...
USD/JPY on Approach to 159! How You Left, Ministry of Finance?
The Japanese Ministry of Finance has reportedly deployed around $65 billion in foreign‑exchange intervention as the yen slides toward ¥159 per dollar. Unlike most economies, the Ministry—not the Bank of Japan—holds legal authority to act, directing the BOJ to execute trades...
China April Retail Sales +0.2% Y/Y (Exp 2%) & Industrial Prduction +4.1% Y/Y (Exp 5.9%)
China’s April economic data revealed a sharp miss on growth expectations. Retail sales rose only 0.2% year‑over‑year, far below the 2% forecast, while industrial production expanded 4.1% YoY, missing the 5.9% consensus. Fixed‑asset investment turned negative, falling 1.6% YTD, and...
Iran War Economic Toll Deepens as Global Oil Stocks Near Exhaustion
The Iran‑U.S. conflict is deepening its economic toll, with more than 23,000 Iranian factories hit and over one million jobs lost, while the UNDP warns up to 4.1 million more citizens could slip into poverty. At the same time, global oil...
Japan's 10-Year Bond Yield Hits 1996 High as Fresh Debt Plans Emerge. Extra Budget Coming
Japan’s benchmark 10‑year government bond yield jumped to 4.2%, the highest level since 1996, after a government source confirmed fresh debt issuance to fund a supplementary budget aimed at cushioning households from soaring energy costs linked to the Iran war....
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Reference Rate for Today at 6.8435 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8086)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set today’s USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8435, slightly above the Reuters consensus of 6.8086. The central bank maintains a +/-2% daily fluctuation band around the benchmark. It also injected 1 billion yuan into the market...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8086 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is slated to set the USD/CNY reference rate at approximately 6.8086, according to Reuters estimates. China’s managed‑float system anchors the yuan within a 2% band around this daily midpoint, which the PBOC determines using prior...
The Real Cost of Forex Trading—Everything That Eats Your P&L Beyond the Spread
Forex traders often focus on the headline spread, but the true cost of a trade includes seven hidden fees: spread markup, commissions, slippage, swap/rollover charges, inactivity fees, withdrawal and conversion costs, and execution‑related opportunity loss. These expenses can multiply during...
Risk-Off Wave Starts to Sweep Across Markets Ahead of European Trading
Markets are shifting into a risk‑off mode as the week winds down, with investors eyeing President Trump’s upcoming China visit and the ongoing Middle East conflict. Oil prices have risen, with WTI at $102.65 and Brent at $107.05, while the...
Japan Currency Intervention Not Likely to Sustainably Curb Yen Weakness - Poll
A Reuters poll of economists shows most expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate to 1.00% in June, with the median forecast keeping the Q4 rate at 1.25%. Seventy‑four percent doubt that currency intervention can sustainably curb...
OECD Chief Backs BOJ Path and Calls for Trade Reform Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks
The OECD secretary‑general defended the Bank of Japan’s monetary stance, saying it is not clearly behind the curve as inflation expectations stay anchored and wages rise. The organization projects the BOJ will lift its policy rate to about 2 % by...
Morgan Stanley Maps Four Oil Shock Scenarios From Fed Hikes to Global Recession
Morgan Stanley outlined four alternative macroeconomic scenarios surrounding its base case of a gradual Iran de‑escalation, a brief inflation spike and a patient Federal Reserve. Scenario 1 predicts a 100‑basis‑point Fed hike in 2027 as the oil shock fades, while Scenario 2...
U.S. Treasury Auctions Off $58 Billion of Three-Year Notes at a High Yield of 3.965%
On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $58 billion of three‑year Treasury notes, yielding 3.965%, the highest in recent weeks. The auction’s bid‑to‑cover ratio slipped to 2.54×, under the six‑month average of 2.67×, and featured a modest positive tail of 0.6 basis...
USDCHF Trades to New Day Lows. USDCAD Lower as Well. What Are Key Levels for Each Now?
The USDCHF pair remains trapped below its 100‑hour moving average at 0.77913, keeping sellers in charge, while a break above that level is required for a bullish shift. On the downside, the pair is testing the 61.8% retracement zone between...
Iran News: Pres Trump Is Considering Renewing Project Freedom
President Trump is reportedly weighing a restart of Project Freedom, a U.S.-led naval operation to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran limited transit. Tehran has countered by demanding the United States clean up alleged nuclear‑dust contamination...
Tech Sector Falters While Healthcare Stocks Soar: Dissecting Today's Market Movements
The tech sector posted notable losses, with Microsoft down 1.11% and Google slipping 2.01% amid concerns over lofty valuations and heightened regulatory scrutiny. In contrast, healthcare rallied sharply, led by Eli Lilly’s 4.05% surge and solid gains from Gilead Sciences, buoyed...
Why the Technicals for Meta Platforms Are Troubling for Investors
Meta Platforms’ shares plunged after its April 29 earnings, where the company disclosed higher capital‑spending plans that alarmed investors. The drop pushed the stock below its 100‑hour, 100‑day and 200‑hour moving averages, eroding the technical foundation. Subsequent rally attempts on April 30...
InvestingLive Academy Launches Essentials of Technical Analysis
investingLive has launched a new three‑hour masterclass, Essentials of Technical Analysis, on its ILAcademy platform. The course, taught by market analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta, covers price‑action reading, market structure, and disciplined risk management across four concise lessons. It targets retail traders...
US Existing Home Sales for April 4.02M versus 4.05M Estimate
U.S. existing home sales slipped to a seasonally adjusted 4.02 million in April, falling short of the 4.05 million forecast and marking a modest 0.2% month‑over‑month rise. The median existing‑home price climbed 0.9% to $417,700, extending a 34‑month streak of year‑over‑year price...
UAE Says It Is Responding Again to a Missile Threat
The United Arab Emirates announced that its air defence systems are currently engaging missile and drone threats over its airspace. The alert follows Iran’s recent missile launch aimed at U.S. Navy ships and a subsequent repelled attack on U.S. destroyers...
Goldman Says Trump Tariff Ruling Near-Term Impact Limited as Appeal Looms
Goldman Sachs expects the Trump administration to appeal the Court of International Trade's 2‑1 decision striking down the 10% Section 122 tariffs before the May 12 effective date, and to secure a higher‑court stay. A stay would leave the duties in place...
Trump Gives EU Until July 4 to Implement Turnberry Deal or Face Tariff Hike
President Donald Trump has set a July 4 deadline for the European Union to fulfill its side of the Turnberry trade agreement, warning that failure will trigger substantially higher tariffs. The deal would lower U.S. duties on most EU goods to...
Japan Services PMI Hits 11-Month Low in April. War Costs Bite, Input Costs 42-Month High
Japan's services PMI slipped to 51.0 in April, the weakest expansion in 11 months but still above the 50‑point growth threshold. Input prices surged at the fastest pace in a year, driven largely by fuel costs linked to the Middle...
Morgan Stanley Sees Gold at $5,200 (Central Bank Buys, Fed Cuts), Fear Trade Is Now Dead
Morgan Stanley projects gold to reach $5,200 per ounce by year‑end, driven by renewed ETF and central‑bank buying and anticipated Federal Reserve cuts in early 2027. The bank notes gold has fallen 14.5% since the Iran conflict, underperforming both the...
PBOC Is Expected to Set the USD/CNY Reference Rate at 6.8138 – Reuters Estimate
The People’s Bank of China is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8138, the daily midpoint that anchors the yuan’s onshore market. China’s managed‑floating regime allows the renminbi to trade within a ±2% band around this midpoint, giving...
Japan Wage Growth Streak Hits Three Months, Putting June BOJ Move in Focus
Japan's real wages rose 1.0% year‑on‑year in March, marking a third consecutive month of growth and signaling a labour market that is translating nominal wage gains into purchasing power. Total cash earnings increased 2.7% YoY, falling short of the 3.2%...
Deutsche Bank Flags Inconsistent Market Pricing as Iran Conflict Drags On
Deutsche Bank’s research note warns that markets are pricing the Iran conflict inconsistently across asset classes. Treasury yields have tracked oil prices, suggesting a prolonged inflationary shock, while equities have decoupled, treating the disruption as temporary. At the same time,...
Dow Reaches 50,000. There Have Been 4 Closes Above the 50K Level
The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke the 50,000 psychological barrier, closing above it for four consecutive days in early February before a sharp correction pulled it down nearly 10% to a March low of 45,166.64. Over the next 27 trading...
GBPUSD Backs Off Into Support. Yesterday's Resistance Is Today's Support.
The GBP/USD pair surged to a high of 1.3642 before stalling near the previous day’s resistance zone of 1.3574‑1.3602. That resistance has now flipped into a key support area around 1.3574‑1.3578, reinforced by the 100‑hour moving average. Buyers have kept...
NASDAQ Index Traded to a New Session High. S&P and Dow Now up over 1%
The Nasdaq surged 1.58% to 25,726, hitting an intraday high of 25,741.14, while the S&P 500 rose 1.10% and the Dow gained about 1.02% near the 49,800 level. Large‑cap technology and growth stocks led the rally, with AMD and Super...
Fed's Goolsbee: Impact of Rising Productivity on Inflation Remains Active Topic of Debate
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that the relationship between rising productivity and inflation remains unsettled. He noted that while higher output could ease price pressures, it may also trigger spending‑driven inflation if households anticipate higher future incomes. Goolsbee highlighted...
Trump: WIll Not Let Iran Have a Nuclear Weapon
At a White House Mother’s Day event, President Donald Trump reaffirmed that the United States will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, while indicating a willingness to negotiate if Tehran agrees to dismantle its enrichment program. He noted...
AUDUSD Runs to a New High Going Back to 2022 & Backs off.What Keeps the Buyers in Control?
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points, marking its third consecutive hike and signaling persistent inflation concerns. The AUD/USD pair surged past its 100‑hour and 200‑hour moving averages, climbing to a session high of 0.7277 within...