Australian Jobs Data Preview: Labour Data to Miss Iran Impact, Slowdown Seen Later
Westpac’s preview of Australia’s March labour force report suggests the data will show little immediate impact from the Iran war, with employment projected to rise by about 25,000 and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.2%. The bank warns that the energy shock will filter through later, eroding labour demand and pushing unemployment toward 5% by early 2027. Adjustments are expected to come via reduced hours rather than outright layoffs. Consequently, the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain focused on inflation rather than near‑term labour softness.
Euro Continues to Climb as the Market Senses an End to the Iran War
The euro has recovered to its pre‑conflict level as traders price an end to the Iran‑Israel war and the reopening of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe’s heavy reliance on Hormuz‑bound crude makes the currency especially sensitive to...
Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Futures Show This Will Be a Short-Run Problem (Why He's Wrong)
Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee argued that the steeply backwardated oil futures curve proves the current price spike is a short‑run issue. The article counters that backwardation reflects immediate physical scarcity and a high convenience yield, not a forecast of...
US-Iran Direct Talks May Resume on Thursday
U.S. and Iranian officials are set to meet again on Thursday in Islamabad for a fourth round of direct nuclear negotiations, according to a Tehran source reported by the Atlantic. The talks follow a series of stalled discussions and suggest...
Trump: We Were Called This Morning by the Right People From Iran
Former President Donald Trump claimed that senior Iranian officials contacted his team early Thursday, signaling a possible breakthrough in nuclear negotiations. He asserted that the sticking point is Iran’s refusal to renounce a nuclear weapon, but suggested Tehran may now...
Iran Thought They Were Close to an Agreement on Sunday Morning - Report
According to an Axios report, Iran thought a nuclear agreement was imminent on Sunday morning, but the sudden departure of U.S. Senator JD Vance from talks in Pakistan derailed expectations. The negotiations are stalled over whether Tehran will cease all...
Stock Market Update: Tech Giants Propel Amid Semiconductor Strains
Technology stocks led market gains while semiconductors slipped. Microsoft rose 1.8% and Oracle surged 7.3%, boosting the software‑infrastructure segment. Micron fell 2.1% and Nvidia edged down, highlighting pressure on chips. Investors remain cautiously optimistic, favoring resilient tech over volatile semiconductor...
US Stocks Turn Positive as US Naval Blockade of Iran Goes Into Force
U.S. equity markets rose as the U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz took effect at 10 a.m. ET. Traders view the move as a diplomatic signal rather than an escalation, keeping the S&P 500 within 200 points of pre‑war levels....
US March Existing Home Sales 3.98m vs 4.06m Expected
March existing‑home sales slipped to an annualized 3.98 million units, missing the 4.06 million consensus and falling short of February’s 4.09 million pace. The market posted a 3.6% month‑over‑month decline after a 2.7% gain in February, while the median price rose 1.4% year‑over‑year...
Iran Officials Are Studying Abandoning Enrichment - Report
Iranian officials are reportedly evaluating a proposal to abandon uranium enrichment in exchange for broader economic concessions, a notion that has circulated in U.S. media after Vice President JD Vance outlined a potential deal. The story, initially sourced to the...
Hopium: A Second Round of US-Iran Talks Could Be Held Within Days (WSJ Cite Officials)
High‑level US‑Iran talks in Islamabad ended without a deal, but officials say a second round could be convened within days. Core disputes linger over unrestricted Hormuz navigation, the size of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, and the release of roughly...
EU Politics - Orban Lost the Hungarian Election. Landslide Opposition Win. EUR Impact.
Hungary’s snap election delivered a landslide defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, ending his 16‑year tenure as the country’s illiberal leader. The pro‑EU centre‑right Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar, is projected to secure a two‑thirds parliamentary majority with record‑high...
Monday Open Levels, Indicative FX Prices, 13 April 2026
U.S. President Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after US‑Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend. The move sparked an immediate rise in the U.S. dollar as investors sought safety amid heightened geopolitical risk. Analysts expect crude...
Iran Delegation Arrives in Pakistan
Iranian officials led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf touched down at Islamabad's Nur Khan Airbase, escorted by the Pakistani Air Force. The delegation, which includes the foreign minister, defence council secretary, central bank governor and several MPs, is en...
GBPUSD Will Have the Ceiling to Define the Bias in the New Trading Week
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the lower edge of a well‑defined resistance ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 that has capped upside for six weeks. Buyers remain active, but a break above the ceiling would force short covering and spark...
Isreal Wil Announce Its Commitment to a Ceasefire at 4 AM Beirut Time
Israel is set to announce a formal ceasefire commitment at 4 AM Beirut time, opening a diplomatic pathway for U.S.-Iran peace talks this weekend. The negotiations will be mediated by Pakistan and feature a U.S. delegation led by JD Vance, with...
Crude Oil Futures Settles at $96.57. Down Sharply on the Week
Crude oil futures settled at $96.57 on Friday, down 1.33% for the day and 14.3% for the week. Prices remain below the 100‑hour ($102.87) and 200‑hour ($103.57) moving averages, reflecting market discounting a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz...
US March Budget Deficit for March -$164.00 Billion versus -$156.75 Billion Estimate
The U.S. federal budget posted a $164 billion deficit for March, missing the $156.75 billion forecast and slightly widening from the $161 billion deficit a year earlier. Year‑to‑date for fiscal 2026, the deficit fell 11% to $1.169 trillion versus $1.307 trillion in 2025. March revenues...
Baker Hughes Rig Count -3 at 545
The Baker Hughes weekly rig count slipped by three to a total of 545 rigs, with oil rigs unchanged at 411 and natural‑gas rigs falling to 127. Crude oil prices nudged up $0.57 to $98.45 per barrel, yet the weekly...
Major European Indices Close Mixed. Higher for the Week.
European equity markets ended the day with mixed moves, as Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.59% to just below its 2000‑era peak and Spain's Ibex climbed 0.55% toward its historic high. Germany's DAX slipped 0.01% while France's CAC 40 edged up...
US February PCE Inflation 2.8% Y/Y vs 2.8% Expected
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation held steady at 2.8% year‑over‑year in February, matching the consensus forecast. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose to 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8% in January and also met expectations. While headline...
US Initial Jobless Claims 219K vs 210K Estimate
U.S. initial jobless claims climbed to 219,000 last week, missing the 210,000 forecast and nudging the four‑week average to 209.5K. Continuing claims eased to 1.794 million, also below expectations. The data suggests a modest softening but the labor market remains historically...
US Final Q4 GDP +0.5% vs +0.7% Expected
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the final fourth‑quarter 2023 GDP figure, showing a 0.5% annualized increase—below the 0.7% consensus estimate. The downgrade stems mainly from a downward revision to investment, while consumer spending and corporate profits still posted...
The USD Is Mixed vs the Major Currencies to Kickstart the Thursday Trading
The US dollar showed mixed performance Thursday, edging higher against the yen while slipping modestly versus the euro and pound. The move comes amid lingering uncertainty over a potential cease‑fire in the Israel‑Iran conflict, which has driven oil prices up...
InvestingLive European Markets Wrap: Oil Prices Bounce on Fragile US-Iran Truce
Oil prices rebounded sharply, with WTI crude up 4.5% to $98.56, as the fragile U.S.-Iran cease‑fire remained under pressure. Iranian officials claimed the truce had already been violated, while former President Trump warned of renewed strikes if negotiations fail. European...
How Have Interest Rate Expectations Changed After the Ceasefire Announcement?
After the ceasefire announcement, market pricing shows a broadly dovish repricing of interest‑rate expectations as inflation worries ease. The Fed now shows a 7‑basis‑point cut probability with a 98% chance of holding rates at the next meeting. Most other central...
US CPI Report Coming up Tomorrow, What to Expect?
The March U.S. Consumer Price Index is slated for release tomorrow, with economists projecting a 0.9% month‑over‑month rise in headline CPI, up from 0.3% in February, and a 3.3% year‑over‑year increase. Core CPI is expected to climb 0.3% m/m, translating...
Dollar Holds Steadier Today as Fragile US-Iran Truce Keeps Traders Guessing
The U.S. dollar held modest gains on Thursday as traders remained cautious amid a fragile U.S.-Iran truce. Risk‑off sentiment tempered the rally, leaving European equity indices slightly lower and the DAX still riding yesterday’s 5% surge. In the FX market,...
Bank of Korea Seen Holding Rates on April 10 as Oil Shock Lifts Inflation Risks
The Bank of Korea is expected to leave its base rate at 2.50% during the April 10 meeting, as a unanimous Reuters poll of 31 economists predicts no change. A sharp oil price jump of more than 50% has heightened...
PBOC Sets USD/ CNY Central Rate at 6.8680 (Vs. Estimate at 6.8369)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central reference rate at 6.8680 for the current trading session, modestly weaker than the Reuters estimate of 6.8369. The central bank maintains a +/-2% daily trading band around this reference, allowing...
Japan Real Wages Jump Most in Five Years, Boosting BoJ Hike Expectations
Japan's February data showed real wages jumping 1.9% year‑on‑year, the strongest increase in five years, while nominal wages rose 3.3% – the fastest pace in seven months. Base‑pay growth hit 3.3%, marking the biggest surge in roughly 34 years and...
Anthropic Warns New AI Model Could Accelerate Cyberattacks, Refuses Release
Anthropic is withholding its newest AI system, Claude Mythos, because it believes the model could dramatically accelerate cyberattacks if released publicly. Instead, the company is sharing a preview with a handful of large enterprises—including Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and JPMorgan—to help...
Trump Ceasefire Announcement Still to Be Agreed to by Iran. Markets Rejoicing Though.
Former President Donald Trump announced a two‑week suspension of U.S. bombing campaigns against Iran, framing it as a provisional cease‑fire. The pause is conditional on Tehran’s immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit chokepoint....
Nasdaq Technical Analysis at investingLive Shows Bulls Are Good After All
Nasdaq futures are trading above the critical 23,100‑23,120 support zone, preserving a bullish structure that has delivered roughly a 4.5% rally since March. A double rejection at the 23,400 resistance level reinforced the market’s upward bias, while higher lows continue...
What Is the Distribution of Forecasts for the US NFP?
The article explains how the distribution of U.S. non‑farm payroll (NFP) forecasts can shape market reactions, even when actual data falls within the reported range. Analysts tend to cluster estimates toward the upper bound, so a reading near the lower...
Bitcoin Analysis and Price Prediction Score Today at investingLive.com
InvestingLive.com gave Bitcoin futures a -2.5 score today, indicating a slightly bearish short‑term outlook. Buyers pushed the price up to the 67,250 zone mid‑session, but momentum faded and the market slipped back toward the 66,750 fallback area. The score reflects...
Japan Services PMI Eases with Cost Pressures Rising and Confidence Weakening
Japan’s services sector continued expanding in March but its momentum eased, with the S&P Global Services PMI slipping to 53.4 from 53.8. New orders fell to a three‑month low while input‑price inflation surged, driven by higher energy costs and the...
A Holiday Across Much of Asia, but Japan Is Open. We Get PMI Data From There & From China
A rare Good Friday holiday left most of Asia quiet, but Japan stayed open and released its latest services PMI. China also published its services PMI, adding to a week of mixed manufacturing data from both economies. Japan’s services sector...
Trump to Overhaul Steel, Aluminium Tariffs, Lifting Effective Import Costs
The Trump administration is preparing a major overhaul of the Section 232 steel and aluminium tariff regime, proposing a flat 25% duty on the full customs value of finished goods containing these metals. While the headline rate is lower than the...
Event Calendar in Asia Thursday, April 2, 2026 - Trump Will Be Speaking
Former President Donald Trump addressed the ongoing Iran conflict, stating the war is winding down and launching a sharp critique of NATO. The remarks came as U.S. forces continue to move into the Middle East, fueling speculation about a possible...
Trump Will Say the Iran War Is "Winding Down" In Address, Will Criticize NATO
Former President Donald Trump announced a 9 pm address in which he will declare the Iran‑related Gulf war "winding down" and claim that all U.S. military objectives have been achieved. He is expected to place blame on NATO allies for the...
NZDUSD Backs Off After 200 Hour Is Approached and Sellers Lean
The NZD/USD pair surged but stalled at key technical levels, failing to sustain a break above the 38.2% retracement around 0.57714 and the 200‑hour moving average at 0.57808. After peaking at 0.57764, price reversed and is now testing the 100‑hour...
JOLTs Job Openings for February 6.882 Million versus 6.918 Million Estimate
The Labor Department’s JOLTS report shows February job openings at 6.882 million, missing the 6.918 million forecast. Hires slipped to 4.849 million, while quits fell to 2.974 million, indicating waning worker confidence. Layoffs and discharges rose modestly to 1.721 million. These figures suggest a cooling...
USDCAD Moved Above a Swing Area and Increases the Bullish Bias.
The USDCAD pair has broken back above the 1.3924‑1.3937 swing zone, shifting the bias firmly bullish. Buyers are anchored by a solid 61.8% retracement floor at 1.3888 and have kept the price above the 200‑bar moving average. Technical momentum points...
US January CaseShiller 20-City House Price Index +1.2% vs +1.3% Y/Y Expected
The Case‑Shiller 20‑city home price index rose 1.2% year‑over‑year in January, missing the 1.3% forecast. Monthly growth slowed to 0.2%, also below expectations. FHFA data showed a 1.6% YoY increase, down from 1.8% in the prior month. Higher mortgage rates...
Canada January GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% Expected
Canada’s economy posted a modest 0.1% month‑on‑month GDP gain in January, just edging out the 0.0% consensus. Annual growth slowed to 1.7%, the weakest pace since the pandemic‑induced contraction of 2020. The fourth quarter saw a 0.6% annualized output decline,...
Month-End Flows Point to Dollar Buying Into the Fix - BofA
Bank of America’s month‑end fixing model shows the U.S. dollar as the clear beneficiary as March and Q1 close, forecasting material inflows of about one standard deviation into USD assets. The model also predicts modest euro inflows and outflows from...
Market Outlook for the Week of 30th March - 3rd April
The week ahead is data‑heavy, with Eurozone inflation, U.S. payrolls and retail sales, and Canada’s GDP on the calendar. Energy‑price pressure from the Iran conflict could push euro‑area inflation higher, complicating the ECB’s path to price stability. In the United...
What Are the Main Events for Today?
German inflation data, driven by higher energy prices, is set to rise sharply in March, prompting the ECB to consider a June rate hike despite likely looking through the spike. Market pricing reflects a 55% probability of an April hike...
Prediction Markets Are No Longer Just Getting Faster than Traditional Coverage
Prediction markets are evolving from merely forecasting outcomes to pricing the timing and sequence of macro‑shocks. Recent geopolitical tension, oil spikes and a five‑week equity sell‑off provide a backdrop, while ICE’s $600 million investment in Polymarket signals mainstream acceptance. Markets now...
