PBO’s Migration Analysis Doesn’t Add Up
The Australian newspaper cited the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) budget tool to challenge One Nation’s proposal to cap visas at 130,000 annually and achieve net‑zero immigration. The PBO‑based analysis estimates a $100 billion loss in federal revenue over the next decade, including roughly $80 billion in foregone income‑tax receipts. It also projects that savings from personal benefits, Medicare and unemployment support would total less than $15 billion, while federal debt could swell by $419 billion. Critics argue the figures do not reconcile with underlying economic assumptions.
Australians Are Stuck in a Low Income Growth Trap
The OECD’s latest cross‑country data for Q3 2025 shows Australia posting the smallest rise in real per‑capita household disposable income among major English‑speaking economies over the past ten years. While other nations such as the United States, United Kingdom and Canada...
Weekend Reading and MB Media Appearances
The MacroBusiness weekend briefing spotlights a series of global and domestic macro developments. In the United States, the Federal Reserve injected $18.5 billion of liquidity, complied with a White House‑requested rate check, and saw sub‑prime unsecured loan balances hit record levels...
Aussie Flash PMI Cools, RBA Still Hot
Australia’s flash PMI for February showed a deceleration, with output and new orders slipping across manufacturing and services after a vigorous start to the year. Despite the slowdown, business sentiment stayed upbeat, and employment rose sharply as firms added staff...
Administered Price Inflation Continues to Run Wild
Government and regulatory decisions have driven administered prices—electricity, water, gas, council rates and public transport fares—up 7.55% in the last calendar year. This rise is roughly double the overall CPI inflation rate. Because administered prices are largely insulated from monetary...
Job Creation Soft
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that January 2026 saw a modest net increase of 18,000 jobs, with full‑time employment rising by 50,500 and part‑time employment falling by 32,700. Total employment reached 14,703,800 and monthly hours worked climbed to 2,013 million, while...
Banker Calls for Peak Banker
National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine warned that Australia has hit "peak Australia," signalling that without a productivity boost the economy will stagnate. Real wages fell for the first time in two years, underscoring the pressure on living standards. Irvine...
Baby Boomer Spending Helps Drive up Inflation
Australia’s Reserve Bank highlighted an unexpected surge in private demand, driven largely by heightened household spending from the baby‑boomer cohort. The increase in consumer‑durable price growth reinforced this trend, prompting the RBA to raise the official cash rate by 0.25%....
New Zealand’s Housing Crash Restores Affordability
New Zealand’s housing market has entered a sharp correction, with the REINZ house‑price index falling 0.6% month‑on‑month and 16.2% from its early‑2022 peak, equating to a 30% real‑terms loss since 2019. Mortgage rates have dropped to pre‑pandemic levels after the...
China Mulls Blowing Aussie Property Into Space
Prominent Chinese economists Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong have called for easing capital controls, arguing that the current weakening U.S. dollar and a strengthening yuan present a rare opportunity to increase the currency’s value abroad. They describe 2023 and 2024...
Pilbara Killer Rises
The MacroBusiness note observes that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) halted its decline amid political headlines, while the Australian dollar stayed firm despite broader risk aversion. Beijing is expected to intervene to limit further yuan gains, and the resilience of...
