RAND Blog/Analysis

RAND Blog/Analysis

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Security/defense research and commentary.

AI Implications for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defense Policy and Programs
NewsApr 16, 2026

AI Implications for Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Defense Policy and Programs

The U.S. Department of Defense is accelerating AI adoption while recognizing that artificial intelligence reshapes the chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threat environment. AI promises faster detection, improved decision‑making, and more effective crisis response, but it also enables adversaries...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Building the Knowledge and Skills the U.S. Air Force Needs for Strategic Competition with China
NewsApr 14, 2026

Building the Knowledge and Skills the U.S. Air Force Needs for Strategic Competition with China

The U.S. Air Force recognizes China as its primary pacing threat but lacks a coordinated system to develop, track, and apply China‑relevant expertise across its ranks. Interviews, policy reviews, and historical case studies reveal that language, cultural, and regional knowledge...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Infinite Potential—Insights From the Business and Civil Society Scenario
NewsApr 13, 2026

Infinite Potential—Insights From the Business and Civil Society Scenario

The Infinite Potential platform released an after‑action report on its Business and Civil Society scenario, where CEOs, investors, technologists and civic leaders grappled with overlapping AI and AGI challenges. Participants framed AGI as a dual national‑security and social legitimacy crisis,...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Assessing Bias and Precision in State Policy Evaluations
NewsApr 10, 2026

Assessing Bias and Precision in State Policy Evaluations

The study used state‑level opioid overdose deaths (1999‑2016) to test seven panel‑data estimators under four time‑varying policy scenarios. Simulations revealed that augmented synthetic control reduced bias but raised variance when effects waned, while difference‑in‑differences struggled with non‑monotonic impacts and autoregressive...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Improving Access to Out-of-School Time Opportunities in Allegheny County
NewsApr 10, 2026

Improving Access to Out-of-School Time Opportunities in Allegheny County

The RAND report maps out‑of‑school time (OST) programs across Allegheny County, revealing that while government funding rose between 2012 and 2024, much of the recent increase was pandemic‑driven and has since faded. Local foundations have kept their contributions steady, yet...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
A Flawed Formula for Peace in Ukraine
NewsApr 10, 2026

A Flawed Formula for Peace in Ukraine

U.S.-led negotiations to end the Ukraine war have been suspended, largely because the talks were built around a land‑for‑security trade‑off. The current U.S. framework demands Ukraine cede roughly 20% of the Donbas in exchange for American and European security guarantees....

By RAND Blog/Analysis
RAND Research on Workforce and Force Development Innovation
NewsApr 10, 2026

RAND Research on Workforce and Force Development Innovation

RAND Project AIR FORCE has delivered a suite of research to support the U.S. Space Force’s Vector 2025 transformation, covering Force Design, Development, Generation, and Employment. The studies propose a matrix‑based career model, flexible service contracts, and the SPAFORGEN readiness cycle,...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Making Bricks From Straw
NewsApr 9, 2026

Making Bricks From Straw

A randomized field experiment in Nigeria gave 600,000 ₦ (≈ $1,300) grants to public health clinics, letting staff control the money over a year. The autonomous funding spurred sizable productivity gains, with clinics investing in both physical assets and staff development. Patient...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Autoregressive Models for Panel Data Causal Inference with Application to State-Level Opioid Policies
NewsApr 9, 2026

Autoregressive Models for Panel Data Causal Inference with Application to State-Level Opioid Policies

A team of researchers introduced an autoregressive framework for causal inference in panel data, targeting the evaluation of state‑level opioid policies. The method addresses staggered adoption and limited sample sizes that hinder traditional difference‑in‑differences and synthetic‑control approaches. Simulations mirroring real‑world...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Multilevel Predictors of Intervention Uptake and Postintervention Physical Activity Behaviors Among Churchgoing Latino Adults
NewsApr 9, 2026

Multilevel Predictors of Intervention Uptake and Postintervention Physical Activity Behaviors Among Churchgoing Latino Adults

A multilevel, faith‑based physical activity (PA) trial in East Los Angeles tracked 195 Latino adults from 2019‑2025, offering park‑based and online exercise classes. Logistic and linear regressions examined how baseline neighborhood, psychosocial, and sociodemographic factors predicted class attendance and post‑intervention...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Between Doubt and Diagnosis
NewsApr 9, 2026

Between Doubt and Diagnosis

A qualitative study of 23 patients who experienced delayed diagnoses across five conditions reveals that emotional fallout outweighs clinical consequences. Most participants felt dismissed by clinicians, fueling frustration, anger, and self‑doubt. Receiving a definitive diagnosis provided relief and validation, yet...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Chemicals
NewsApr 6, 2026

Chemicals

The European Union has prioritized green‑tech and critical minerals to boost supply‑chain resilience, but its chemical sector strategy remains underdeveloped. Chemicals, essential to everything from automotive tires to medical devices, are as vital to Europe’s economic security as rare earths....

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Infinite Potential—Insights From the Viral Uplift Scenario
NewsApr 6, 2026

Infinite Potential—Insights From the Viral Uplift Scenario

A multi‑agency after‑action report examined how artificial intelligence could be misused to create novel biological threats, simulating an accidental AI‑generated virus release that sparked a global pandemic. The exercise involved 119 senior officials and experts across ten scenarios, highlighting decision...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Designing Incident Reporting Systems for Harms From General-Purpose AI
NewsApr 6, 2026

Designing Incident Reporting Systems for Harms From General-Purpose AI

A RAND research paper outlines a conceptual framework for AI incident reporting systems, targeting safety and rights harms from general‑purpose AI. The authors identify seven design dimensions—policy goal, actors, incident types, risk level, enforcement, anonymity, and post‑report actions—and illustrate them...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
How Do We Build a Dutch War Economy?
NewsApr 6, 2026

How Do We Build a Dutch War Economy?

The RAND paper examines how the Netherlands could develop a European‑style war economy in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and pandemic‑induced supply‑chain shocks. It notes French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for a continent‑wide war economy and argues that...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Examining the Impact of Total Sleep Duration on Daily Affect Among Short-Sleeping Adolescents
NewsApr 1, 2026

Examining the Impact of Total Sleep Duration on Daily Affect Among Short-Sleeping Adolescents

Researchers randomized 41 short‑sleeping adolescents to a two‑week sleep‑extension protocol (+90 minutes in bed) or to maintain habitual sleep. Actigraphy confirmed the extension increased average nightly sleep from 6.22 hours to 7.00 hours, a large effect (Hedges’ g≈0.87). Both groups showed significant gains in...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Developing Patient-Reported Outcome Measures of Timely Experience of Diagnosis (PROMOTE-Dx) for Cancer
NewsApr 1, 2026

Developing Patient-Reported Outcome Measures of Timely Experience of Diagnosis (PROMOTE-Dx) for Cancer

The research team released PROMOTE‑Dx, a validated patient‑reported outcome measure that captures the timeliness of cancer diagnosis. The instrument was created through extensive survey development, cognitive testing, and psychometric validation. PROMOTE‑Dx is designed for health‑care systems and insurers to monitor...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Factors Associated with Patient Portal Use in a Nationally Representative Sample
NewsApr 1, 2026

Factors Associated with Patient Portal Use in a Nationally Representative Sample

The study surveyed 1,672 U.S. adults to map patient portal usage, finding roughly 75% accessed test results and health records while about 50% used portals for messaging, appointments, or bill payment. Usage was significantly higher among women, non‑Hispanic whites, college‑educated...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
A Framework for Evaluating Implementation, Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Wastewater and Environmental Surveillance
NewsApr 1, 2026

A Framework for Evaluating Implementation, Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Wastewater and Environmental Surveillance

A RAND‑led study introduces a modular logic model for evaluating wastewater and environmental surveillance (WES) programs, built on analysis of 151 evaluations from 2016‑2025. The model aligns with Kellogg Foundation principles and maps inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes to three...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Quality Care Collaboratives for Maternal Health Across U.S. States
NewsApr 1, 2026

Quality Care Collaboratives for Maternal Health Across U.S. States

A new scoping review will map how state‑based maternal and perinatal quality collaboratives (M/PQCs) implement safety toolkits and bundles across U.S. health systems. The review will include studies published after 2000, drawing from MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, the Maternity and Infant...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Depressive Symptoms Mediate the Relationship Between Dispositional Mindfulness and Dietary Quality on Weekends but Not Weekdays Among Pregnant Individuals with...
NewsApr 1, 2026

Depressive Symptoms Mediate the Relationship Between Dispositional Mindfulness and Dietary Quality on Weekends but Not Weekdays Among Pregnant Individuals with...

A study of 308 pregnant individuals with pre‑pregnancy BMI ≥ 25 found that higher dispositional mindfulness was linked to better dietary quality on weekends, but not on weekdays or overall. Weekend Healthy Eating Index (HEI‑2020) scores were lower than weekday scores, yet...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence
NewsMar 31, 2026

A Selection of Implementable Actions to Establish an Air Force Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence

The U.S. Air Force’s Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel, and Services (AF/A1) commissioned RAND to design a Workforce Analytics Center of Excellence to close critical capability gaps in the Air Force Manpower Analysis Agency (AFMAA). RAND identified five...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Modifying Air Force Intelligence Career Development in Response to Targeted Permanent Change of Station Reductions
NewsMar 31, 2026

Modifying Air Force Intelligence Career Development in Response to Targeted Permanent Change of Station Reductions

In May 2025 the Department of War ordered the military to cut permanent change‑of‑station (PCS) moves, prompting a RAND case study of U.S. Air Force intelligence career pathways. The analysis found that intelligence officers traditionally depend on frequent relocations to gain...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Considering U.S. Air Force Culture When Modifying Career Development Pathways for Longer Assignments
NewsMar 31, 2026

Considering U.S. Air Force Culture When Modifying Career Development Pathways for Longer Assignments

In May 2025 the Department of Defense ordered the services to cut permanent change‑of‑station moves and reshape career‑development pathways. A new report examines how U.S. Air Force culture—its policies, processes and unwritten norms—underpins the long‑standing belief that frequent relocations are...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Choosing an Analytic Approach
NewsMar 30, 2026

Choosing an Analytic Approach

The RAND‑posted paper offers a systematic framework for choosing analytic methods in state‑policy evaluations, emphasizing how study setting and data availability shape design choices. It outlines key considerations such as control group definition, policy timing, effect heterogeneity, and data structure....

By RAND Blog/Analysis
The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Today and Beyond
NewsMar 30, 2026

The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Today and Beyond

The RAND Corporation hosted the 12th annual U.S.–Japan Alliance Series on February 17, 2026, in partnership with Japan House Los Angeles and the Japanese Consulate General. The conference examined the alliance’s trajectory after President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Sanae...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
An Integrated Approach to Waterways Safety Risk Assessment for the U.S. Coast Guard
NewsMar 23, 2026

An Integrated Approach to Waterways Safety Risk Assessment for the U.S. Coast Guard

RAND researchers examined the U.S. Coast Guard’s six waterways safety risk assessment tools and applied a tailored Risk Management Framework (RMF) to gauge their effectiveness. The analysis revealed that while each tool captures valuable hazard data, they operate largely in...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
A Review of Coast Guard Waterways Safety Risk Assessment Tools
NewsMar 23, 2026

A Review of Coast Guard Waterways Safety Risk Assessment Tools

The U.S. Coast Guard evaluated six waterways safety risk assessment tools using a risk‑management framework, uncovering strengths in hazard identification but notable weaknesses in risk characterization, evaluation, and especially monitoring. The review found considerable overlap and duplication among tools, with...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Civilian Workforce Challenges for the Department of the Air Force Air Operations
NewsMar 20, 2026

Civilian Workforce Challenges for the Department of the Air Force Air Operations

The Department of the Air Force (DAF) reports acute recruiting and retention problems for civilian air‑operations roles such as pilots and air‑traffic controllers. A limited talent pool, remote duty stations, a cumbersome General Schedule hiring process, and pay disparities with...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
RCTs for Human-AI Evaluation
NewsMar 19, 2026

RCTs for Human-AI Evaluation

RAND’s new working paper investigates the use of randomized controlled trials—referred to as human uplift studies—to evaluate artificial‑intelligence systems. Drawing on interviews with 16 AI practitioners, the authors map methodological hurdles that arise throughout the trial lifecycle, from task definition...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Tax Code Analysis Tool 1.0
NewsMar 19, 2026

Tax Code Analysis Tool 1.0

The Tax Code Analysis Tool (CAT) models the U.S. federal tax code as a graph, linking the text of Title 26 to the entities and concepts it governs. By treating over 1,900 sections as interconnected nodes, CAT can surface cross‑references, map...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook
NewsMar 18, 2026

Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook

The Mid-Atlantic Regional Climate Impacts Summary and Outlook released its winter 2025‑2026 edition, a quarterly briefing produced by the MARISA partnership and funded by NOAA. It reviews significant weather events from December 2025 to February 2026, compares seasonal temperature and...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Medication Availability for Alcohol Use Disorder in Substance Use Disorder Treatment Facilities
NewsMar 18, 2026

Medication Availability for Alcohol Use Disorder in Substance Use Disorder Treatment Facilities

A nationwide study of 3,153 U.S. counties shows that the share of substance‑use‑disorder treatment facilities offering medication for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) rose from 34% in 2017 to 44% in 2021, then plateaued. Rural‑adjacent and rural‑remote counties lagged metropolitan areas...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Proposing New Metrics for Economic Security Policy
NewsMar 18, 2026

Proposing New Metrics for Economic Security Policy

The United States is expanding the use of economic instruments—sanctions, export controls, emergency tariffs, investment restrictions, and subsidies—to advance national security objectives. Existing trade policy models, designed for conventional tariffs, fail to capture the workforce impacts of these broader tools...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
More Students Use AI for Homework, and More Believe It Harms Critical Thinking
NewsMar 17, 2026

More Students Use AI for Homework, and More Believe It Harms Critical Thinking

In 2025, AI‑assisted homework usage among U.S. students surged to 62%, driven mainly by middle and high schoolers. At the same time, 67% of respondents now think AI harms critical‑thinking skills, a rise of over ten points in ten months....

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Parental Access to Paid Sick Leave
NewsMar 16, 2026

Parental Access to Paid Sick Leave

A new analysis of National Health Interview Survey data from 2010 to 2024 shows that family‑level paid sick leave (PSL) access for children has risen sharply, reaching over three‑quarters of all U.S. children by 2024. The study confirms the overall...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Access to Mental Health Treatment Services in Asian Languages
NewsMar 16, 2026

Access to Mental Health Treatment Services in Asian Languages

Asian language speakers with limited English proficiency face major barriers to mental‑health care in the United States. A new cross‑sectional study of 3,847 facilities from 2015‑2024 found that only 5.6 % offered services in an Asian language in 2024, down from...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Medicaid Expansion for La Comunidad Latina in North Carolina
NewsMar 16, 2026

Medicaid Expansion for La Comunidad Latina in North Carolina

The FIEL‑NC project examined Medicaid enrollment among North Carolina’s Latino community after the state’s expansion. Of 44 surveyed community members, 30% successfully enrolled, 36% attempted but were denied, and 34% did not try. Spanish‑speaking, female, and foreign‑born participants showed lower...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
State Spending Growth Benchmarks and Hospital Revenue, Hospital Prices, and Premiums
NewsMar 16, 2026

State Spending Growth Benchmarks and Hospital Revenue, Hospital Prices, and Premiums

Since 2013, nine U.S. states have introduced health‑care spending growth benchmarks, with eight states actively analyzed in a recent case‑control study covering 2015‑2025. The research compared hospital revenue, price indices, and insurance premiums against entropy‑balanced counterparts in non‑benchmark states. Overall,...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Psilocybin Microdosing in the United States
NewsMar 16, 2026

Psilocybin Microdosing in the United States

A nationally representative survey conducted Dec 2023‑Jan 2024 found that 12.1% of U.S. adults have ever used psilocybin, and 26.5% of those users microdosed on their last occasion. Among the 3.1% who used psilocybin in the past year, nearly half (46.9%) reported...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Reality Checking a Major National R&D Investment in AI Trustworthiness, Safety, and Security
NewsMar 12, 2026

Reality Checking a Major National R&D Investment in AI Trustworthiness, Safety, and Security

A new RAND report examines a proposed $10 billion U.S. government investment aimed at AI trustworthiness, safety, and security. Using break‑even analysis, the authors assess potential benefits, costs, and trade‑offs without relying on disputed catastrophe probabilities. The study finds that, across...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
China’s Aging Population and the Implications for China’s Security
NewsMar 12, 2026

China’s Aging Population and the Implications for China’s Security

China’s population contracted in 2022 for the first time since the 1960s, and its fertility rate remains among the world’s lowest. Projections show a loss of roughly 250 million people by 2050, turning the country’s age structure upside‑down. The working‑age cohort...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Implications of the Trump Retirement Accounts Proposal
NewsMar 12, 2026

Implications of the Trump Retirement Accounts Proposal

President Trump’s proposed Trump Retirement Accounts (TRA) would offer a federal match up to $1,000 per worker, aiming to extend retirement savings to the 63 million Americans without employer plans. RAND modeling shows the program is deficit‑neutral after 23‑31 years if account...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Neglected Burden of Obstructive Sleep Apnoea
NewsMar 11, 2026

Neglected Burden of Obstructive Sleep Apnoea

A new BMJ‑published study quantifies obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) prevalence at 22.8% in the United States and 19.5% in the United Kingdom. Using self‑reported breathing pauses and daytime sleepiness, the authors estimate annual workplace productivity losses of $180.2 billion in the...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
The Best Screening Test Is the One That Gets Followed Up On
NewsMar 11, 2026

The Best Screening Test Is the One That Gets Followed Up On

Recent RAND‑posted research underscores that colorectal cancer screening’s value hinges on effective follow‑up. While initiatives like the “80% by 2018” campaign lifted adult screening rates from roughly 65 % to 70 %, the target remained unmet. Emerging blood‑based tests promise higher participation,...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Intimate Partner Violence and Its Association with Symptoms of Depression and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among HIV-Negative Cisgender Sexual Minority Men...
NewsMar 11, 2026

Intimate Partner Violence and Its Association with Symptoms of Depression and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Among HIV-Negative Cisgender Sexual Minority Men...

The RAND‑sponsored study examined 500 HIV‑negative cisgender sexual minority men (SMM) across the United States and found that 40% experienced intimate partner violence (IPV) in the past six months. IPV was positively associated with higher scores on depression (PHQ‑8) and...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
Policy Actors’ Perspectives on Improving Federal Grants to Promote the Implementation Success of Evidence-Based Behavioral Health Practices
NewsMar 11, 2026

Policy Actors’ Perspectives on Improving Federal Grants to Promote the Implementation Success of Evidence-Based Behavioral Health Practices

The study convened federal and state policy actors in four focus groups to examine how federal discretionary grants can better support the large‑scale implementation of evidence‑based behavioral health practices, using the Adolescent Community Reinforcement Approach (A‑CRA) as a case study....

By RAND Blog/Analysis
How Closed-Ended Survey Questions and Narrative Comments Interact in Characterizing Caregivers’ Overall Assessment of Hospice Care
NewsMar 11, 2026

How Closed-Ended Survey Questions and Narrative Comments Interact in Characterizing Caregivers’ Overall Assessment of Hospice Care

The study evaluated 3,811 open‑ended comments from the CAHPS Hospice Survey administered to caregivers of patients who died between March and August 2021 across 56 U.S. hospices. While 78% of caregivers provided comments, only a quarter were deemed actionable and...

By RAND Blog/Analysis
The Changing Landscape of School-Based Health Centers and Other School-Based Clinics in California, 2011-2023
NewsMar 11, 2026

The Changing Landscape of School-Based Health Centers and Other School-Based Clinics in California, 2011-2023

Between 2011 and 2023 California saw a marked expansion of school‑based health centers (SBHCs) from 124 to 186 sites and a five‑fold rise in other school‑based clinics (OSBCs) to 104, with many adding mental‑health services. The study links clinic presence...

By RAND Blog/Analysis