The Straits Times

No Shortage of Opportunities in Asia Post-Iran Crisis: Expert View | Asian Insider Podcast

The Asian Insider podcast examined how the Iran‑Israel conflict is reshaping macro‑economic dynamics across Asia. Host Ravi Velur and Maybank Securities’ Tillan Wickramasinghe argued that energy, once a peripheral concern, has re‑emerged as the dominant driver, while the U.S. dollar is regaining its safe‑haven status, forcing investors to reassess risk premia. Wickramasinghe highlighted three core threats: stagflation from sustained oil price spikes, food‑security pressures amplified by El Niño‑induced weather anomalies, and the limited fiscal room governments have to cushion shocks given debt‑to‑GDP ratios now exceeding 100 percent in many G7 nations. He warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would reverberate beyond crude, disrupting supplies of urea, sulfur, methanol and helium—critical inputs for fertilizers, petrochemicals and semiconductors. Specific examples underscored regional vulnerabilities: the Philippines and Vietnam import over 85 % of their energy through Hormuz, while Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia rely on Middle‑East gas and petrochemical feedstocks. Conversely, Southeast Asian nations such as Malaysia and Singapore possess sizable fiscal surpluses and sovereign reserves, enabling swift policy responses. Notably, Singapore Airlines and local banks have benefited from displaced Middle‑East carrier capacity and safe‑haven flows. The discussion concluded that while many sectors—airlines, logistics, chemicals, high‑energy‑intensity manufacturers—are under pressure, investors can rotate capital into resilient areas like Singapore’s financial hub, energy‑exporting exporters, and firms with lower energy exposure. The episode emphasized that shorter market cycles demand agile positioning to capture upside amid geopolitical turbulence.