Afghanistan’s Telecom Market Between Stability and Control

Key Takeaways

• 22.4 M mobile connections, 50.7% penetration end‑2025.
• Growth slowed to 0.5% YoY, market near stagnation.
• 84% of SIMs broadband‑capable, but data use remains low.
• Roshan leads with 35‑45% share; Etisalat ~25‑30%.
• Taliban‑imposed shutdowns raise political risk for operators.

Pulse Analysis

Afghanistan’s mobile landscape is a rare case of resilient infrastructure in a fragile environment. Built with private capital and donor support, the network now spans nearly every district, delivering 4G LTE and even eSIM capabilities. Yet the sector’s growth has plateaued; from 2024 to 2025 only 101,000 new connections were added, reflecting a market that has reached the limits of organic subscriber expansion. The high broadband‑capable share—84% of SIMs—suggests technical readiness, but cost‑sensitive users continue to favor voice‑only plans, keeping actual data consumption modest.

Operator dynamics further illustrate the market’s maturity and challenges. Roshan, with an estimated 35‑45% share, remains the de‑facto reference network, leveraging a balanced urban‑rural footprint and over 6.5 million active users. Etisalat Afghanistan, having invested roughly $400 million, commands 25‑30% of the market and pushes data‑centric services, including the country’s first eSIM rollout. Afghan Wireless sustains rural connectivity, while the newly formed ATOMA inherits MTN’s spectrum but lacks brand trust. Afghan Telecom’s state‑linked Salaam network, though small, is pivotal for regulatory and rural obligations.

The decisive factor now is political control. The Taliban’s September 2025 blackout, which severed fibre links and crippled mobile services, underscored how swiftly connectivity can be withdrawn. Such interventions elevate the sector’s risk profile, discouraging long‑term capital commitments and forcing operators to plan for intermittent service disruptions. For investors and policymakers, the key question is whether the market can evolve beyond infrastructure provision to a stable, user‑driven digital ecosystem under an unpredictable governance regime.