Forecast: 5G to Drive India’s Mobile Services Market

Why It Matters

The shift to 5G and data‑centric revenue models reshapes India’s telecom economics, creating new growth avenues while eroding legacy voice income. This transition will dictate competitive positioning and investment priorities for the country’s largest mobile operators.

Key Takeaways

• Mobile services revenue to hit $43.7 bn by 2030 (5.6% CAGR)
• Voice revenue declines 2.4% CAGR as OTT apps replace calls
• Data revenue grows 8.9% CAGR, driven by high‑ARPU 5G plans
• 5G subscriber base surpasses 4G by 2027, reaching 200 million users
• Jio leads with 200 million 5G users; Airtel adds 25k sites in 2025

Pulse Analysis

India’s telecom sector is on the cusp of a structural transformation as 5G networks expand and data consumption accelerates. GlobalData’s forecast shows total mobile services revenue climbing to $43.7 billion by 2030, outpacing the modest 5.6% growth of the overall market. The catalyst is clear: average monthly data usage is expected to more than double, from 25.7 GB in 2025 to 58.9 GB in 2030, driven by video streaming, social media, and increasingly data‑heavy applications. Operators are leveraging high‑ARPU premium 5G plans and unlimited data bundles to capture this surge, turning bandwidth into a primary profit center.

At the same time, traditional voice services continue their steady decline, shrinking at a 2.4% CAGR as consumers migrate to OTT platforms like WhatsApp and Zoom. This erosion forces telcos to re‑engineer pricing structures, focusing on tiered data packages and value‑added services such as content bundles and digital ecosystems. The shift also encourages network investments aimed at capacity upgrades, ensuring that the infrastructure can sustain higher traffic volumes without compromising quality. As data becomes the new revenue engine, operators are experimenting with monetisation levers such as edge computing, advertising, and partnership‑driven services.

Competitive dynamics are intensifying. Reliance Jio, with over 200 million 5G users, and Bharti Airtel, which added roughly 25,000 new 5G sites in 2025, are racing to cement market leadership. Vodafone Idea’s late 2025 entry into 5G underscores the urgency of scaling coverage across both metro and non‑metro regions. The race to dominate 5G not only promises higher ARPU but also positions carriers to tap into emerging digital services, from fintech to IoT. In this evolving landscape, the ability to balance affordability with premium offerings will determine which operators capture the long‑term value of India’s burgeoning data appetite.