Starlink D2D Use Is Less than Expected, Says T-Mobile

Why It Matters

The muted demand for consumer satellite D2D challenges the viability of MVNO models with LEO providers and may curb further investment in satellite broadband, while T‑Mobile’s core growth shows the carrier can thrive without relying on that segment.

Key Takeaways

• T‑Satellite usage confined mainly to national parks, far below expectations.
• T‑Mobile rejects MVNO deal with Starlink, citing limited TAM expansion.
• Q1 post‑paid net adds rise 6% to 217,000, revenue up 10.6%.
• New SuperBroadband service targets businesses with 5G‑plus‑satellite connectivity.
• Analysts flag lack of subscriber data, complicating competitive comparisons.

Pulse Analysis

The partnership between T‑Mobile and SpaceX’s Starlink Mobile was billed as a breakthrough in direct‑to‑device (D2D) connectivity, leveraging a 650‑satellite low‑Earth‑orbit network to fill coverage gaps. When the service launched in July 2023, industry analysts expected rapid consumer adoption, especially in rural and underserved areas. However, CEO Srini Gopalan’s recent earnings‑call remarks reveal that actual usage is confined largely to national parks, a niche far removed from the mass‑market demand that would justify large‑scale MVNO arrangements.

This sobering insight reverberates across the satellite broadband ecosystem. Competitors such as Amazon’s Project Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, and the emerging Lynk Global/Omnispace merger are all betting on LEO constellations to capture a new customer base. T‑Mobile’s decision to forgo an MVNO deal signals that the perceived total addressable market may be smaller than projected, prompting investors to reassess the economics of satellite‑centric mobile services. The broader industry must now grapple with whether LEO satellites will serve primarily as a complementary “white‑space” solution rather than a primary access layer for everyday consumers.

Meanwhile, T‑Mobile’s Q1 financials demonstrate resilience independent of its satellite venture. Post‑paid accounts grew 6% year‑over‑year to 34.4 million, and service revenue climbed 11.3% to $18.8 billion, driving total revenue up 10.6% to $23.1 billion. The carrier’s launch of SuperBroadband—a hybrid 5G‑plus‑satellite offering for enterprises—highlights a strategic pivot toward high‑value business segments where satellite coverage can command premium pricing. As analysts note the lack of granular subscriber data, T‑Mobile’s ability to sustain growth without relying on D2D adoption will be a key metric for investors watching the evolving telecom‑satellite convergence.