Forecast: Amazon, Netflix, Google to Control Half of CTV Ad Market by 2030

Why It Matters

Control of the CTV ad layer gives tech giants direct access to consumer data and premium inventory, reshaping media buying and retail‑media integration across the industry.

Key Takeaways

• Google projected 26% share of global CTV ad spend by 2030
• Amazon expected to capture 13% of CTV advertising revenue
• Netflix slated for 9% share, completing half market control
• VIDAA to become Europe’s third‑largest TV OS after Android TV, Tizen
• Retail‑media integration will accelerate CTV ad growth

Pulse Analysis

The connected‑TV (CTV) ecosystem is undergoing a rapid transformation, with Omdia projecting global ad revenue to climb from $44 billion in 2025 to $81 billion by 2030. This surge reflects advertisers’ migration from linear broadcast to programmatic, data‑driven placements on smart‑TV platforms. As households increasingly consume video through streaming services and built‑in operating systems, the living room is becoming a premium digital real‑estate, prompting brands to allocate larger portions of media budgets to CTV inventory.

Google, Amazon and Netflix together are forecast to command 50 % of that market, splitting it 26‑13‑9 percent respectively. Google’s dominance stems from YouTube’s extensive CTV reach and its sophisticated ad stack, while Amazon leverages Prime Video and its retail‑media engine to sell inventory to merchants. Netflix’s ad‑supported tier adds a new supply source, expanding its monetisation beyond subscriptions. The rise of TV operating systems such as Europe’s emerging VIDAA underscores that control of the UI layer is as valuable as the content itself, granting owners direct access to viewer data and ad inventory.

The broader implications extend to the convergence of retail media, programmatic TV and first‑party data. Brands can now target shoppers on the same screen where they browse product videos, creating seamless commerce pathways. As competition intensifies, advertisers will demand transparent measurement and cross‑platform attribution, while smaller publishers risk marginalisation without a strong OS partnership. Ultimately, the battle for the living room reshapes the advertising supply chain, rewarding tech platforms that combine content, commerce and data into a unified, measurable experience.