What's happening: US growth stalls at 1.4% as political gridlock saps momentum
The economy expanded at an annualized 1.4% in Q4 2025, roughly half of analysts' expectations and far below the 4.4% growth recorded the prior quarter. The slowdown marks the weakest expansion since Q1 2024 and coincides with heightened legislative deadlock over fiscal policy and the debt ceiling.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh all‑time high, buoyed by strong earnings from industrial and financial stocks. At the same time, the latest retail sales data showed flat growth, indicating a pause in consumer spending. Despite the consumer‑spending stall, market sentiment remained upbeat, with futures pointing higher across major indices. The rally highlights a divergence between equity performance and short‑term economic indicators.

There's only been 28 trading days this year and ETFs have already pulled in about $250b. More than double any other start to a year. Up until 2020, $250b was what they averaged for a YEAR. That's $9b/day pace, or...

Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
Altruist, a wealth‑management startup, rolled out AI‑driven tax‑planning tools, prompting a sharp sell‑off in legacy financial firms such as Charles Schwab, LPL Financial and Morgan Stanley. The reaction reflects investor anxiety that AI could erode traditional advisory revenue streams. Despite...
Coming up on @thestreetpro More Tales From Nvidia: The Depreciation "Tail and Spike" Will Be Painful to Mag7 Profits (Issue #178!) * As free cash flow is plummeting... I decided to ask the AI about itself. In this case, I asked Google Gemini about...
Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest household‑debt report shows U.S. credit‑card balances climbing to a record $1.3 trillion in the fourth quarter, while the number of open accounts also hit an all‑time high. The surge reflects persistent consumer spending despite elevated...
McGough LIVE on The Call right now saying BUY Gamestop $GME on the open @HedgeyeRetail
The market is now punishing even those companies which are beneficiaries of AI. These businesses are accelerating their revenue growth and their management is explicitly stating that AI is a tailwind, yet their stocks are being crushed. Unreal.

$SPX futures slipping after losing 6902/6870 as traders cut risk and lean short. Upper range looks vulnerable, especially in tech with lots of names bent or broken. If SPY/QQQ lose the 8/21-day, expect more cash + day trading. CPI at...
I will be on @YahooFinance at 8:30 am today to talk about the CPI. Friday the 13th and inflation. (My preview thread below.)

Stocks are up an annualized 22.6% on Friday the 13th. What really should scare you is a simple case of The Mondays, as stocks are down 18.3% on Monday. #FridayThe13th https://t.co/M74coxbyXF

Great question. Drop in hiring happens every January. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis (left), we lost 2.6 million jobs in January 2026, but that was a smaller loss than a typical January ... so we got a good print seasonally adjusted...

SPX put skew is really starting to warm up here, while ATM IV remains relatively subdued. If SPX 30) https://t.co/p9qsHp8nHk

US exceptionalism is turning into global rebalancing: BofA’s Michael Hartnett. Stock funds in Europe, Japan and other international developed markets have drawn $104 billion this year vs the $25 billion that’s flowed into US funds: BofA citing EPFR Global. https://t.co/ah9arXM6u9...

OIL: ticks back into the green and remains Bullish TREND @Hedgeye Yesterday was the 1st day where we could start buying some Energy Exposure on red https://t.co/eURgEMfFpO

SECTORS: as we reminded you, these are 2 of the 3 WORST US Equity Sector Styles in #Quad3 https://t.co/yr2fNhpUZH

Ventas $VTR the Fin Prop REIT, eclipsing highs going back to 2013 as REITS start to kick into gear again with Utilities to join the recent strength seen in Staples, Telco @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Strength in these defensives is more than...

How might the Fed/Treasury do that? One possibility is to cut short rates to steepen the yield curve, and deregulate the banks into buying the long end so that the Fed’s balance sheet can be “privatized.” If those QE assets...

Things have been quiet on the rate side, with the 10-year yield trading at around 4 ¼ percent and expectations for a few more rate cuts (down to 3.1%) holding firm. We will likely soon have a lot more coordination between...

🆓 Thursday links: tight credit spreads, fast food woes, and who is paying the cost of tariffs. https://t.co/NOuKmm78S8 image: https://t.co/Lhs7cz5vWL https://t.co/nj3y6g7t8i

-$3.6T in 90 minutes Gold fell 3.76%, wiping out nearly $1.34T in market cap. Silver dropped 8.5%, losing around $400B in market value. The S&P 500 declined 1%, erasing $620B. Nasdaq slid more than 1.6%, shedding $600B. The crypto...

Analytically, the January U.S. jobs report supports competing views. The market reaction, however, was clear: traders have sharply dialed back expectations for a June rate cut. The big beat on January job creation, paired with a dip in the unemployment rate...

NFP BREAKDOWN : Unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% while headline number crushed the expectations. In simple words , this was a much solid NFP all across the board. FED pause will continue. Profit taking in Gold , SPX , NASDAQ on reduced rate cut...
Good morning and welcome to Jobs Report Day in the US. The consensus forecasts are for a monthly employment gain of 65,000, an unemployment rate of 4.4%, and a 3.7% annual increase in average hourly earnings. As we head into this release,...

⚠️US HIRING IS AT RECESSION LEVELS: US hiring rate sits at just 3.3%, in line with the 2020 Crisis and one of the lowest readings in 13 years. Hiring is even weaker than during the 2001 recession and at levels seen during...

Total US consumer credit increased by $24.05 billion in December, far higher than forecasts of an $8.0 billion increase.
🔴AI is NOT the reason for job market LAYOFFS: Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited in 7,624 of 108,435 layoffs announced in January, representing 7% of all cuts that month. Since 2023, AI has been referenced in just 3% of all job cuts...

🆓 Wednesday links: focusing on forecasting, how NAV squeezing works, and the rise of the active ETF. https://t.co/bgzuhBy1Uq image: https://t.co/JRCEGjVQN2 https://t.co/PSs8BSV9vG
Small Warner Bros. Discovery Shareholder Blasts ‘Flawed, Inferior’ Netflix Offer and Backs Paramount’s Hostile Bid — but Will It Matter? https://t.co/NGSPvAdqOW via @variety
Will stock markets find enough to like in US jobs data? It’s all about Fed interest rate cut expectations. #Jobs #NFP #StockMarket #Dollar #Fed #Macro #Trading https://t.co/UBCpyuHxhZ
Look forward to discussing this AI driven sell-off and the opportunities in tech on @BloombergTV at 9:40 am with @mattmiller1973 and @daniburgz 🔥🍿📺🐂🏆🎯

Macro Themes Deck (148 slides) @HedgeyeTV 11AM tomorrow Sneak Peak: this slide shows our Long Credit, Short Software Theme that MANY missed https://t.co/sBbXGGtVAr
Macro: growth softens, yields rise. Key: sticky CPI, Fed tightening, tight labor. Risks: stagflation, policy error. Trade: short US Treasury duration as real yields climb. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov

MARKET RECAP 📈 The Dow Jones closed at another record high, now up 4.3% so far in 2026. All eyes on January CPI coming this Friday 👀 What the heck is going on?!? Let’s talk about it 🗣️
Financial stocks are "overearning" and subject to disruption. Altruist's tool is the tip of the iceberg. Today's share price declines are justified, imho - as pricing of industry product offerings will become more commoditized. This was inevitable. Trading at historic premiums...
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan sounded more confident about the labor market outlook compared to Sept and Nov. She is also slightly more optimistic about inflation, pointing to recent downtrends in the "trimmed mean" PCE reading. But her bottom line is...
Bessent on balance sheet policy in a Warsh Fed: "I wouldn't expect them to do anything quickly. They've moved to an ample [reserves] regime ... that does require a larger balance sheet. So I would think they'll probably sit back,...
Markets turned more defensive Tuesday as early strength faded... In today’s CHART THIS: • $SPX stuck below 7000 • Bonds rally on weaker retail sales • $GOOGL below the 50-day • $AVGO trapped between key MAs • Earnings: $KO $MAR $GILD $HOOD CHART THIS -> https://t.co/pHGfUwqPar

The ECI data out this morning is consistent with the thesis that underlying inflation is around 2.5%. And labor market looseness suggests that is more likely to go down than up. Wages ex volatile incentive pay have been steadily growing at...
$UBER one of the show's favorite longs hits a multi month low and is now close to -30% below its recent high. Crickets. @dougkass @KeithMcCullough
The jobs report is due out tomorrow. Along with it, are the annual benchmark revisions. In other words, we may soon learn that the labor market is in worse shape than we thought. https://t.co/b44jhyLPVL
RPK, last time I asked you about $RIG signaling buy more - what's the bull case on $HAL on sale? @RPKent
Little Bounces Off Big Support From my live trading room Friday... Snap-back rallies off big support does not a trend-reversal make 🙃 $MSFT $AMZN $QQQ $BTCUSD $SLV https://t.co/OLa6XrVvqJ
No AI disruption worries in railroads, with Union Pacific, CSX, and Norfolk Southern all touching ATHs

The 'sell America' trade pressure seems to be picking up again. The SPX-VEU (rest of world equity ETF) ratio is the lowest since April 22nd. A little further and it is a two year low. Adding the DXY Dollar Index in for...

$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question...

GDPNow model (a “nowcast,” not a forecast) from @AtlantaFed down to +3.7% q/q annualized for 4Q2025 https://t.co/NKqC4jdaL0

Imagine being on a pretent "investment committee" that has finally figured out being Long Industrials $XLI and isn't Long of the Big $CAT ? lol Reality: they're all still long of the #Bag7 Stocks and widely held Large Cap Financials...

WH keeps 'pumping up' payrolls for tomorrow. Here's why. Revisions could wipe out all job growth last year. Zero. zip. nada. https://t.co/RILDizthdl