Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Crude Oil Rises While Lithium, Polysilicon and Coking Coal Slip in Shanghai Midday Review
Shanghai Metals Market reported that crude oil prices rose at midday, while domestic base metals showed mixed moves and lithium carbonate, polysilicon and coking coal fell sharply. The data came as Fed Governor Thomas Barkin warned that repeated supply shocks could test inflation expectations.
USDA Forecast Tightens U.S. Soybean Supplies, Futures Hit $12.14 per Bushel
The USDA’s May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projected tighter U.S. soybean supplies and record biofuel crushing, lifting November futures 14% to $12.14 per bushel. The outlook also shows modest export gains amid lingering trade tensions with...
As Temperatures Tumble, Physical Natural Gas Prices Follow Suit
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Soybeans, Corn Finish Firm Ahead of Memorial Day Weekend
Soybean and corn futures closed the week on the upside as short covering and technical buying lifted prices. U.S. soybean meal sales reached 252,000 tons, while Mexico purchased nearly 500,000 tons of U.S. corn. Argentina reported 74.7% of its soybean crop harvested...
European Gas Prices Surge as TTF Hits $18/MMBtu, Buyers Clash with Asia
Front‑month TTF futures jumped to €52.565/MWh ($18.21/MMBtu) as European gas inventories lingered at just 36.7% of capacity. With Asian buyers snapping up LNG cargoes, European importers are scrambling for limited supply, tightening the market ahead of the fourth‑quarter restocking window.
Energy Intelligence Uranium Market Update: May 22, 2026
The Energy Intelligence Uranium Market Update highlights a surge in nuclear activity, with Saskatchewan advancing dual small modular reactor (SMR) projects and Poland targeting an EPC deal for its first nuclear plant by year‑end. Antares secured a commercial high-assay low-enriched...
Speculators Push Copper Near Record Highs on Sulfur Shortage Fears and AI Demand
Speculators are flooding copper markets, driving prices close to all‑time highs amid worries that the Middle East conflict could curtail sulfur supplies needed for acid smelting. At the same time, surging demand for AI‑related hardware is adding a structural pull...
Oil Markets Ignore Red Flags as Global Energy Crisis Deepens
Global oil markets remain under pressure as a historic U.S. inventory drawdown failed to lower Brent, which stays near $105 per barrel. OPEC+ members are set to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day despite a 10‑million‑barrel decline from Gulf...
Coffee Futures Slide Deepens as Brazilian Supply Consensus Leaves Bulls With Nowhere to Hide
Coffee futures continued their multi‑week decline as consensus forecasts point to a record Brazilian 2026/27 crop and accelerating Vietnamese robusta exports. The surge in supply outpaces demand, leaving little room for price rebounds despite modest inventory drawdowns and higher shipping...
EIR Says Qatari LNG Outage Will Shift Gas Market to Deficit
Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) warns that missile‑induced outages at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG complex will push the global gas market into a structural deficit, forecasting an 8 billion cubic feet per day shortfall by 2026. The outage removes roughly two billion cubic feet...
Corn Likely to Dip Toward $4 by Year‑end
Corn May Be Leaning Toward $4 vs. $5 for Year-End The December corn future 2026 high is $5.06 per bushel on May 21 vs. the US break-even production cost near $4, which may suggest downward reversion risks. Some combination of WTI...
IShares Silver ETF Slides 35% as Analysts Clash Over Outlook
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) plunged 35% from its 2025 high, reigniting a debate among market analysts about whether tighter Indian import rules and lingering price volatility will curb future inflows. The slide comes as spot silver trades near $76...
Dubbo Sale 21 May 2026: Numbers Slashed to Below 2500 After Rain; Big Lifts Seen in Prices
The Dubbo cattle sale on 21 May 2026 saw yardage drop to 2,455 head, a decline of 3,645 after heavy rains earlier in the week. Despite the lower numbers, prices across most categories rose, with young cattle to trade up 25 c/kg, feeder...
Silver’s $90 Breakout Dream Fades, but Structural Deficit Keeps $70 Floor Alive
Silver’s price swung dramatically from near $90 to the mid‑$70s within two weeks as fears of a U.S. strike on Iran sparked a commodities sell‑off. The White House’s decision to postpone the strike calmed markets, allowing silver to stabilize above...
Wood Mackenzie Warns Hormuz Closure Could Spark $200 Brent Shock, Hitting Emerging Markets
Wood Mackenzie’s new Horizons report warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lift Brent crude to $200 a barrel, curtail 11 million bpd of Gulf oil and 80 Mtpa of LNG, and push global growth below 1% in...
Japan’s April Exports Surge 14.8% Amid Oil‑Gas Supply Concerns
Japan’s trade ministry reported a 14.8% year‑on‑year rise in April exports, the eighth straight month of growth, powered by a 42% surge in semiconductor shipments. The rally comes as oil and LNG imports plunge amid the Iran‑related closure of the...
Oil Prices Stabilize Near $105 as Middle East Tensions Ease
Brent crude fell 0.3% to $104.72 a barrel and U.S. WTI slipped 0.2% to $98.07, halting a more than 5% slide the day before. The pause follows optimism that Middle East tensions may ease and that oil shipments through the...
Triple-Digit Storage Print Leaves Natural Gas Futures Fighting to Sustain $3 Handle
Spot natural gas prices slipped on Wednesday as cooling demand softened and temperatures fell across the central and eastern United States. The Energy Information Administration reported a 101 Bcf increase in storage, the largest weekly build in recent years, putting downward...
DRC Caps Cobalt Exports at 96,600 Tonnes Annually, Shifting From Ban to Quotas
The Democratic Republic of Congo's mineral regulator ARECOMS introduced a quota‑based export regime that limits cobalt shipments to 96,600 tonnes per year for 2026‑27. The move replaces a temporary ban and is intended to stabilize global prices while giving the...
Oil Markets Nearing ‘Red Zone’ as Iran Crisis Continues, Warns IEA Chief
International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that global oil markets could slip into a “red zone” by July‑August as inventories shrink and fresh Middle‑East exports dry up amid the Iran‑related crisis. He said the conflict has removed roughly 14 million barrels...
Falling Treasury Yields Revive Oil Price Rebound Hopes as Brent Slides Below $110
U.S. Treasury yields retreated 1‑3 basis points, with the 10‑year note slipping to 4.64% from 4.69%, sparking market optimism that oil prices could rebound. Brent crude slid to around $108‑$109 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell more than 3%,...
Natural Gas Pares Gains After Bearish Storage Surprise
U.S. natural‑gas futures slipped after the Energy Information Administration disclosed a 101 billion‑cubic‑foot (Bcf) weekly storage build, larger than analysts expected. Despite the pullback, the June NYMEX contract stayed in positive territory, trading at $3.040 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)...
Flagship Energy’s Mike Stafford Energy Markets Update – 21st May
UK gas and power prices nudged higher this week, with June, Q3‑26 and Winter‑26 contracts reaching their strongest levels since the US‑Iran ceasefire. A tentative US‑Iran draft deal and statements from President Trump suggest diplomatic progress, but the peace settlement...
Bulk Buyers Shifting to Retail Pumps Behind Fuel Demand Spike in Parts of India
India is seeing a sharp rise in diesel demand at retail petrol pumps as bulk buyers, including state transport fleets and telecom generators, switch to retail outlets to exploit a ₹40‑42 per litre (about $0.48‑$0.50) price gap with bulk sales....
Metal Movers: China Flat Steel Outlook Shaped by Exports, Costs and Risk
In this episode, Argus senior analyst Annie Wang breaks down why Chinese flat steel and export prices surged in early May, citing post‑holiday restocking, production cuts, rising raw‑material costs (coke, iron ore, energy) and a weaker regional price gap. She...
Kitsault Energy Revives BC Export Hub as LNG Reshapes AECO
Developers of the Kitsault Energy project are repurposing a former mining site in northwest British Columbia into a $30 billion natural‑gas export hub aimed at Asian LNG markets. The initiative aligns with Canada’s broader strategy to deepen energy ties with Asian...
Russia-China Summit Ends Without Power of Siberia 2 Gas Deal, Stalling $15 B Project
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded their Beijing talks without securing a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. The 1,600‑mile, $15 billion project, slated to deliver 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year, stalled over...
What Happens to Oil if Iran Permanently Taxes Hormuz Traffic?
Analysts say a permanent tax on Strait of Hormuz traffic would likely cause a modest rise in crude prices and slightly lower shipping margins. Exporters would seek alternate routes, spurring pipeline projects through the Red Sea, Syria, Iraq and Turkey....
Goldman Sachs Flags Record 8.7 Million‑Barrel Daily Oil Drawdown, Shrinking Global Reserves
Goldman Sachs said global crude and product stockpiles fell by a record 8.7 million barrels per day in May, almost twice the average drawdown since the Middle East conflict began. The rapid depletion of strategic reserves signals tighter supply and could...
U.S. Navy Boards Iranian‑Flagged Oil Tanker Amid Hormuz Blockade, Fifth Vessel Intercepted
The U.S. Central Command confirmed that Navy forces boarded the Iranian‑flagged oil tanker M/T Celestial Sea in the Gulf of Oman on Wednesday, accusing it of attempting to breach the American blockade of Iranian shipping. It is the fifth commercial...
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POLITICALLY AWEH: Why the Petrol Price Exploded and the Solution Government Is Blocking
The latest episode of Politically Aweh spotlights South Africa’s soaring petrol prices, linking the surge to geopolitical shocks such as the Iran‑related conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Hosts KG and Zoe explain why Minister Gwede...
Europe’s Gas Supply Safe; Worst‑case LNG Spikes to $54.9
NEW RESEARCH: We modelled three Hormuz closure scenarios. Europe never physically runs out of gas in any of them. But under the worst shock, LNG hits $54.9/MMBtu, above the 2022 peak. Full paper here https://t.co/6fJzMRx2i3 https://t.co/wqPJbHbJua
Emerging Consensus Suggests Oil to Remain Capped Near $100 over Next Year
A Bloomberg Intelligence survey of 126 asset managers finds consensus that Brent crude will trade between $81 and $100 per barrel over the next 12 months. Despite the Iran‑US conflict tightening the Strait of Hormuz and creating a 3‑7 million‑barrel‑per‑day supply...
Copper Retreats as US and Iran Trade Threats on Peace Deal
Copper prices slipped 1.3% to $13,474 a ton as traders digested President Donald Trump’s mixed signals on a U.S.–Iran peace deal. While Trump said progress was being made, he warned that U.S. forces could resume attacks if negotiations stalled, prompting...
US Gas Prices Hit $4.48/gal Ahead of Memorial Day, Near All‑Time Highs
GasBuddy projects the national average regular‑gas price to reach $4.48 per gallon this Memorial Day, 42% higher than a year ago and the second‑highest on record. The surge, driven by the Iran‑Hormuz crisis and record‑low U.S. oil inventories, is pushing...
Steel Output Surges While Scrap Prices Languish
U.S. steel production jumped 10.3% year‑over‑year in mid‑May 2026, pushing melt‑shop utilization to 82.2%. Despite the output surge, recycled steel prices remained flat, with No. 1 HMS down $8 per ton and No. 2 shredded scrap down $2 per ton. Hot‑rolled coil...
Global Wheat Futures Jump 12% as Middle East War Fuels Supply Fears
International wheat futures climbed 12.1% from $202 to $226 per ton between February and May as the prolonged Middle East war tightened global grain markets. South Korea responded by securing over 1.5 million tons of wheat and earmarking billions in funding...
Crude Prices Plunge as More Tankers Traverse Strait
Crude oil benchmarks slumped on Wednesday as a surge of tankers cleared the Strait of Hormuz, lifting concerns over supply constraints. The increased flow signaled that more Iranian and global crude could reach markets, prompting a price drop of roughly...
Market Watch: Nymex Eases Amid Moderating Weather Forecasts
June natural‑gas futures on the NYMEX slipped 11 cents to $3.004 per million British thermal units, reflecting a softening weather outlook. Gelber & Associates noted that while export demand has rebounded sharply, the domestic market lost the early‑week heat support that...
Fertilizer Prices Surge as Iran War Triggers EU Aid and US Farmer Crisis
The European Commission announced emergency funding for farmers as the Iran war pushes global fertilizer prices up 67%, while a new American Farm Bureau survey finds 70% of U.S. producers cannot afford the fertilizer they need. The twin shocks threaten...
Gulf Nations Essential for Global Energy Security Amid Price Surge
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are foundational to energy security, and without energy security, we have nothing. If you were listening to this conversation in 2023, you would have thought it was all about production… That is a...
Gasoline Futures Slip, Sub‑$4 Pump Prices Possible
$3.48 RBOB gasoline futures suggest some modest relief at the pump in the days ahead July RBOB is a dime lower, too The October contract trades $2.83, so sub-$4 at the pump possible by end of summer https://t.co/OmnLTXMVTc
Aussie Stike to Worsen LNG Crisis
Australian union leaders have announced a two‑week strike at a major LNG export facility starting May 27, 2026. The action comes as global LNG supplies are already constrained by the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict and the closure of the Strait of...
Oil Prices Swing as Trump Delays Iran Strike, Brent Near $110 Amid Supply Fears
President Donald Trump announced a pause to a planned strike on Iran, sending Brent crude down to $110.83 per barrel. Traders remain jittery over the Strait of Hormuz blockage, with Citi forecasting Brent could climb to $120 if supply gaps...
Hormuz Crisis Shows Europe More Exposed to Gas Price Shocks than Before Ukraine War, Study Finds
A new study by researchers from Vienna University of Technology, Oxford, NTNU and Paris Dauphine finds that Europe’s diversification away from Russian gas has left the bloc more vulnerable to gas‑price shocks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed...
US Crude Drops, SPR Release Offsets, Fuel
US crude oil inventories declined by 7.9 mb to 445 mb. The US government increased supplies from the SPR by 9.9 mb. Both gasoline and distillate inventories are below the 5-year range.
USA EIA Lowers Henry Hub Price Forecast for 2026, 2027
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reduced its Henry Hub spot price outlook, projecting an average of $3.50 per MMBtu in 2026 and $3.18 in 2027, down from its April forecasts of $3.67 and $3.59 respectively. The revised STEO also...
Rotational Maintenance at Indonesia's Weda Bay Cuts Nickel Output, LME Prices Jump 2.6%
Rotational maintenance at Indonesia's Weda Bay Industrial Park will take 10‑15% of high‑grade nickel pig iron capacity offline, sending London Metal Exchange nickel futures up 2.6% to $19,050 a ton. The cut tightens supply for stainless‑steel producers and battery makers...
Natural Gas Futures Tumble as Production Revision, Cooler Forecasts Challenge Rally
Natural‑gas futures slipped on Wednesday as cooler weather trimmed heating demand and a sharp upward revision to Lower‑48 production added supply pressure. The June contract fell amid elevated storage levels that blunted price support, even as geopolitical tension over Iran...
Kotak Warns of Massive Fuel Under-Recoveries Despite Recent ₹3/Litre Price Hike
Kotak Securities warns Indian state‑run oil marketers may need additional fuel price hikes as refiners still face large under‑recoveries despite a recent ₹3 per litre ($0.036) increase. At a delivered crude price of about $120 per barrel, the implied burden...