Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
US LNG Demand Reshapes Natural Gas Storage Indicators as Henry Hub Nears $3
U.S. natural‑gas storage saw a 92 Bcf injection for the week ending May 15, keeping the overall surplus near 140 Bcf for a third straight week. LNG export flows to Lower 48 liquefaction plants rose to 18.1 Bcf/d, underscoring a structural shift toward export‑driven demand. Residential and commercial consumption fell sharply to 14.5 Bcf/d, while production held steady at 108.4 Bcf/d and rig count climbed to 551. Henry Hub settled at $2.86/MMBtu, with June futures briefly topping $3.
Hormuz Strait Shutdown Erases 246 M Barrels, Lifts Oil 2% and Fuels Clean‑energy Hedge Debate
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 246 million barrels of oil from global stocks, driving Brent crude above $111 per barrel and prompting analysts to argue that clean‑energy assets could serve as a hedge against such geopolitical...
Ruto Convenes Crisis Meeting over High Fuel Prices
President William Ruto convened an emergency meeting with energy, treasury, transport and interior ministers alongside oil marketers and transport leaders to address Kenya's soaring fuel prices. The government has already deployed a roughly $80 million stabilization fund and cut fuel VAT...
Higher Aluminum Prices Are Powering One Former Dow Component. Here's How to Buy for Less
Alcoa is capitalizing on a four‑year high in LME aluminum prices, prompting a buy‑write (covered‑call) trade that lets investors acquire shares at a reduced net cost. The June $70 buy‑write proposes buying at $62.50 and selling a $70 call for...
Time Is Not on Iran’s Side – No Deal – No Regime Is Close. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/18/2026
The latest Commitment of Traders report shows funds shedding positions in most ag markets while remaining heavily long in corn, with a net long of roughly 299,000 contracts. Corn futures have slipped below $4.70 per bushel and are projected to...
‘This Is Bad’: Strategists See European Oil Shortages Within Weeks as Inventories Are Depleted
Strategists warn that Europe could confront physical oil shortages as early as the end of May, driven by rapidly depleting global inventories. Even a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would entail a 52‑day lag before additional barrels reach...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Overnight U.S. ag markets rallied after U.S. Trade Representative Greer signaled that China plans to purchase billions of dollars in agricultural products, not limited to soybeans. He projected double‑digit‑billion‑dollar deals over the next three years, reviving momentum that had stalled...
Oil Climbs Above $110 After Gulf Drone Attacks Raise Supply Fears
Oil prices surged above $110 per barrel after drone attacks on the UAE nuclear plant and Saudi Arabia raised Gulf supply concerns. Brent climbed to $110.91 and WTI to $107.42, extending weekly gains past 7 percent. The rally was fueled...
Silver Prices Tumble Rs 35,000/Kg in Just 4 Days. Should Investors Buy This Dip?
India’s central government raised the import duty on gold and silver to 15% from 9%, sending MCX silver futures down ₹35,300 (about $425) in four trading sessions to ₹2.66 lakh per kilogram (≈ $3,200). The metal, which peaked at a record ₹4.39 lakh...
Should Petrol, Diesel Prices Go up by Rs 25 per Litre? Oil Companies Are Staring at Rs 1,380 Crore Daily...
Indian oil‑marketing companies (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL) are losing roughly Rs 1,380 crore ($166 million) each day after a modest Rs 3 per litre price hike, still facing a Rs 25 per litre under‑recovery on blended fuels. Nomura estimates integrated margins are now negative – $19...
Investors Take Profits From Platinum but Tailwinds Persist
The World Platinum Investment Council reported an oversupply of platinum in Q1, driven by an 18% production surge in South Africa, but expects a fourth straight annual deficit, with a 297,000‑ounce shortfall projected for 2026. Investor redemptions are pulling roughly...
Brent Crude Surpasses $110 on US‑Iran Tensions
Brent crude starts the trading week above $110 a barrel in Asia amid stalled US-Iran talks and a fresh set of warnings to Tehran from President Trump. (CNBC table below.) #economy #oil #energy #markets @cnbc
Feedgrain Focus: Promising Forecast Sends Prices South
Australian grain markets slipped as a broad rain forecast softened prices across southern and eastern regions, while the Australian dollar lingered near 72 US cents, prompting buyers to adopt a more cautious pricing stance. Wheat free‑on‑truck (FOT) to Brisbane is...
Goldman Says Central Bank Gold-Buying Stronger than Thought, to Reaccelerate
Goldman Sachs revised its model for sovereign gold purchases after discovering that official trade data missed outflows from London vaults starting in August 2025. The updated nowcast shows central banks buying about 50 tonnes of gold in March, far above the previous...
Occidental and Ardmore Shipping Spotlighted as Overlooked High‑Growth Oil Plays
Research analysts have highlighted Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Ardmore Shipping (ASC) as two of the most overlooked oil‑related stocks, noting 36% and 75% price gains this year. Both companies posted record Q1 earnings, aggressive debt reduction and rising free cash...
Oil Surges Past $109 as Iran Toll Threat and US Waiver Expiry Tighten Supply
Crude oil jumped above $109 a barrel on Tuesday after Iran announced tolls on Strait of Hormuz traffic and the United States let a temporary Russian‑oil waiver expire. The moves have spiked import bills and inflation pressures for oil‑importing emerging...
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth Warns of 1970s‑style Oil Crisis at Milken Institute Conference
At the Milken Institute Global Conference, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the erosion of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves could spark an oil shortage comparable to the 1970s. He said the risk...
National Gas Prices Near Record High
U.S. gasoline prices are climbing toward record highs as Brent crude settled at $109 a barrel, a 10% weekly rise driven by the ongoing Iran‑Houthi conflict that has choked 20% of global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Futures...
Iran Conflict Risks 20% of Global Oil Supply, Fuels Sharp Price Surge
Iran's announcement of a toll system for ships in the Strait of Hormuz could restrict up to 20% of global oil supply, sending crude prices soaring. The move coincides with U.S. cargo aircraft leaving the region and heightened concerns over...
Analysts Warn Oil Prices Could Spike Non‑Linearly as Supply Tightens
Energy analysts cautioned that crude oil markets may experience a sudden, non‑linear price jump within a month as inventories dwindle and geopolitical risk mounts. Brent crude hovering around $110 per barrel has already pushed Indian fuel prices higher, raising inflation...
Mint Explainer | Why Power Prices on Indian Exchanges Are Crashing to Zero Despite Record Demand
India’s power market saw real‑time electricity prices on the Indian Energy Exchange drop to zero on May 1 and again on May 15, driven by a surge in daytime solar generation and weak demand. The zero‑price spikes occurred during the mid‑afternoon window...
Enbridge Q1 EBITDA Near $4.3B as Pipeline Utilization Hits Record, Outlook Strong
Enbridge reported first‑quarter adjusted EBITDA of C$5.8 billion (≈$4.3 billion) and a record 3.2 million barrels per day of mainline volumes, while raising its quarterly dividend by nearly 3%. The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance, underscoring strong demand for its oil‑and‑gas pipelines and a...
IGL Hikes CNG Price Again; Rate in Delhi Crosses ₹80-Mark
Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) lifted Delhi's compressed natural gas (CNG) price to ₹80.09 per kilogram (about $0.96), while Noida and Ghaziabad now pay ₹88.70 per kilogram (≈$1.07). This follows a ₹2/kg hike on May 15 and coincides with a broader fuel...
Iran War Cuts 15% of Global Oil Supply, Brent Tops $100; Nigeria Signs $25 Bn Refinery MoU
The war in Iran has eliminated roughly 15% of global oil output, driving Brent crude above $100 a barrel. At the same time, Nigeria’s NNPC signed a memorandum of understanding with two Chinese firms to revive its Warri and Port...
GEN Restaurant Group Sees 8.8% Sales Dip as $6‑plus Gas Prices Curb Consumer Spending
GEN Restaurant Group posted an 8.8% drop in same‑store sales for Q1 2026, attributing the slowdown to gasoline prices above $6 per gallon that squeezed disposable income. Higher fuel costs also lifted cost‑of‑goods percentages, prompting a modest menu price hike.
UAE Leaves OPEC, Raising Questions on Cartel Unity and Oil Market Stability
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC, prompting analysts to warn of a potential fracture in the cartel and heightened uncertainty for global oil supplies. The move coincides with heightened geopolitical tension in the Gulf and new energy...
Canadian Stocks Slide 1.3% as Hormuz Blockade Keeps Oil Flow Disrupted
Canadian equities fell sharply on Friday, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index closing 1.27% lower at 33,833.35 after the Strait of Hormuz blockade remained in place, removing roughly 15% of global oil supply and keeping crude prices above $100 a barrel....
Global Oil Stockpiles Could Hit Record Lows if Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Global oil inventories are sliding toward record lows as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, with UBS forecasting stockpiles of 7.6 billion barrels by the end of May. JPMorgan notes that only about 800 million barrels are readily available without straining the...
India Lifts Gasoline Price by ₹3 per Litre, Widening Trade Deficit as Oil Imports Surge
India's state‑run oil firms raised petrol and diesel prices by ₹3 per litre, taking petrol to Rs 97.77 and diesel to Rs 90.67 per litre. The hike comes as Brent crude hovers around $110 a barrel, inflating oil import bills and prompting...
Trump Claims China Will Purchase U.S. Oil Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions
President Donald Trump announced that China has agreed to buy crude from the United States, promising to route Chinese tankers to Texas, Louisiana and Alaska. He framed the deal as a response to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockage and...
Farmers Growing Increasingly Desperate Amid Rising Energy and Fertilizer Prices
Midwest farmers are heading into planting season under severe financial strain as the Iran conflict has driven diesel prices up 60% to $5.67 a gallon and fertilizer costs to historic highs. The surge in input costs, combined with lower soybean...
Kenyans Face More Pain at Pump as Crisis Deepens
Kenya’s energy regulator lifted retail fuel prices by up to 23.5%, pushing diesel to Sh242.92 per litre (≈$2.00) and exposing the country to potential breaches of the Sh300/L ($2) threshold. The government’s subsidy fund has been exhausted, leaving over Sh20 bn...
Nigeria Signs $25 Bn MoU with Chinese Firms to Revive Warri and Port Harcourt Refineries
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s Sanjiang Chemical and Xingcheng Industrial Park to restart the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries. The deal follows $25 bn already spent on past rehabilitation attempts and promises...
Only $40 Oil Can Halt Growing US Surplus
It May Take $40 Oil to Curtail US Supply Surplus Plunging US demand vs. supply for crude has buffeted broad commodity prices for about two decades, underscoring a key force -- elasticity. Nearing a surplus of 8 million barrels a day...
Which Countries Are Profiting From the Iran War Oil Shock
The U.S.–Israeli war with Iran has triggered the deepest energy crisis in recent memory, sharply curtailing Persian Gulf output and sending crude prices soaring. Seaborne oil exports outside the Gulf surged, with the United States adding roughly 250 million barrels and...
Jeff Currie Turns Near-Term Bearish on Gold, but Sees Massive Commodity Upside – by Neils Christensen (Kitco News – May...
Jeff Currie, executive co‑chairman of Abaxx Markets and former Goldman Sachs commodity chief, warned that gold is likely to underperform in the near term. He attributes the bearish view to rising global inflation and the ongoing Iran conflict, which strain...
What Will Happen To Gasoline Prices When the Iran War Ends?
President Donald Trump has repeatedly promised that gasoline prices will tumble quickly once the war with Iran ends. Energy experts, however, caution that while prices are likely to start falling after hostilities cease, the national average may need several months...
NGSA: US Gas Supply, Demand to Set Records This Summer
War‑driven spikes in U.S. crude oil prices are set to trigger a surge in associated natural gas production this summer, according to a new Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) study. The analysis projects that total gas output will reach an...
Market View: Looming Heat Drives US Gas Futures to 11-Week High
Rising temperatures across the United States pushed front‑month Henry Hub natural‑gas futures to $3.00 per MMBtu, an 11‑week high. The surge reflects heightened demand for electricity‑driven cooling and concerns over already low gas inventories. Traders view the $3 level as...
Oil Prices, May 15, 2026
Canadian federal and provincial leaders reached an agreement to clear the path for a new 1 million barrels‑per‑day pipeline from the Alberta oil sands to the Pacific coast. The project, estimated at roughly $15 billion USD, would give Canada a direct export...
Longer-Term Supply Impacts and US-China Meeting Rally Crude Prices
Crude oil prices climbed this week as global strategic reserves were tapped to offset an estimated 10‑14 million barrels per day of supply stranded behind the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA reported a 250 million‑barrel drawdown in March‑April, while OPEC confirmed a...
Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W20)
Brent crude closed just under $110 a barrel, gaining about $8 on the week as optimism over a diplomatic breakthrough faded. US‑Iran nuclear talks stalled, and President Trump’s China visit produced no tangible progress on Hormuz tensions. Calendar spreads bottomed...
Russia's Underwhelming Oil Revenue Windfall
Brent crude surged to about $103 per barrel in March, up from $66 in the October‑February window, while Russian Urals prices rose to roughly $55 after limited sanctions were eased to ease Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Six weeks earlier analysts...
Beef Markets Tick Higher as Cash Cattle Ignore Trade Turmoil | Beef Market Update
In this Beef Market Update, host Sean and guest Anne Wasco of Gateway Livestock Exchange discuss a surprisingly strong cash cattle market despite trade turbulence, noting U.S. and Canadian cash cattle prices rose $4‑$9 per head and fed cattle prices...
Silicon Valley’s Vacationland Needs a New Energy Provider Just as AI Is Driving Prices Up
Lake Tahoe’s power supply faces a critical transition as Liberty Utilities’ agreement with NV Energy expires in May 2027. The termination coincides with a surge in AI‑driven data‑center demand, which Bloomberg estimates at over 22 gigawatts—roughly 40 times the mountain town’s...
Goldman Adds SMRs to Nuclear Model, Sees 17% Upside in Uranium Demand
Goldman Sachs has revised its nuclear power model to include roughly 46 GW of small modular reactor (SMR) capacity by 2045, raising its nuclear generation outlook by 6% and adding 62 million lb of uranium demand – a 17% increase over previous forecasts....
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Average U.S. LNG Feedgas Demand Hits Lowest Point Since October 2025
U.S. LNG feedgas demand slipped to an average 18.3 Bcf/d in May, the lowest level since October 2025, as routine summer maintenance throttled deliveries at key export terminals. The decline occurred despite 1.1 Bcf/d of new export capacity coming online, including Corpus Christi Stage III...
Oil Prices Surge on Hormuz Tensions, Heightening U.S. Inflation Risks
Brent crude climbed to about $105 per barrel after flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell 30%, reviving concerns that higher energy costs will lift U.S. gasoline prices and add pressure to the inflation outlook, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy...
Iran‑US Conflict Sends Global Fuel Prices Soaring, Jamaica Gasoline Jumps 25%
The war between Iran and the United States has driven Brent crude above $105 a barrel and lifted Jamaican gasoline prices by roughly 25% in just 11 weeks. The sharp drop in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and...
Copper Prices Surge as Demand Outpaces Supply
Seabridge Gold CEO Rudi Fronk on the BOOM in copper prices: "Copper is now trading at about $6/lb. There's no doubt that the world is going to need more copper going forward... Commodity prices have to go HIGHER because demand is...