Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (18 May 2026)
Natural gas prices rose across the three major benchmarks in the week of May 11‑15, 2026. The Asian JKM index climbed to the mid‑$18/MMBtu range, driven by heightened spot demand and supply worries at Freeport LNG and Ichthys. Europe’s TTF jumped to $17.1/MMBtu as cold weather, low wind output and Norwegian maintenance tightened supplies. In the United States, Henry Hub edged up to $2.96/MMBtu amid weaker storage injections and forecasts of hotter weather later in May.
Why Is Oil Moving Lower Today?
Oil prices slipped as markets processed U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals and mixed U.S. economic data. President Trump’s remarks lowered the immediate strike risk but left a geopolitical premium, while IEA data showed global supply fell 1.8 million barrels per day in April,...
The Iran War Is Destroying Oil Demand. Could It Also Spark a Shift to Clean Energy?
The Iran‑War‑triggered oil shock has pushed U.S. gasoline above $4.50 per gallon, a 40% jump since February, prompting 44% of adults to curb driving and turn to public transit, rideshares and electric‑hybrid vehicles. The International Energy Agency now projects a...
Surging Fuel Costs Risk Creating New Split in the Eurozone
Oil prices surged from about $70 to $110 a barrel after the US‑Israeli strike on Iran, pushing fuel costs sharply higher across the eurozone. A 50‑litre petrol tank now costs €5‑13 ($5‑$14) more in Spain and €13.5 ($15) in Germany,...
Citi Bull Case Brent Hitting $150 Near Term as Oil Markets Under-Price Disruption Risk
Citi projects Brent crude climbing to $120 per barrel in the near term, citing that markets are under‑pricing the risk of a prolonged Hormuz disruption. Its bull‑case scenario pushes Brent to $150 if the Strait of Hormuz reopens only gradually...
Is Another Oil Spike Ahead?
The analysis highlights that both WTI and Brent crude have formed triangle patterns that could precede a bullish breakout, especially if prices close above the $112‑$120 resistance zone. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency warns that global commercial oil inventories are...
Spring Revision to 2026 Illinois Crop Budgets
The University of Illinois released a spring revision to its 2026 Illinois crop budgets, raising projected corn prices to $4.50 per bushel and soybean prices to $11.50. While input costs—especially fuel and fertilizer—have risen due to the Iran conflict, per‑acre...
Jeff Currie Sees Gold Price Pullback Before $10,000 Run
Veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie, now with Abaxx Markets and Carlyle, says gold will likely correct to around $4,000 per ounce before rallying toward $10,000. He has been short gold since March, citing geopolitical fallout from the Iran war and...
Natural Gas Spot Prices, May 19, 2026
Energy Intelligence’s May 19, 2026 briefing notes that U.S. natural‑gas futures surged to an 11‑week high as an early‑summer heat wave lifts demand and war‑driven oil price spikes spur associated‑gas production. The NGSA forecasts record‑setting summer supply and demand balances, while two...
Cattle Futures Higher Ahead of Friday’s On Feed Report
Live cattle futures edged higher on Tuesday, with June contracts gaining $1.17 to $254.55 and August contracts up $0.10 to $247.25 as traders await the USDA Cattle on Feed report on Friday. Feeder cattle rallied sharply, with August and September...
Zimbabwe’s Export Ban Pushes Lithium and PGM Sales Near $1 Billion in Q1
Zimbabwe’s mineral sector posted $983.9 million in sales in the first quarter of 2026, nearly $1 billion, after a February export ban forced more local processing of lithium and platinum‑group metals. The policy lifted lithium value by 106% and helped PGMs generate...
CBOT Wheat Rises as Drought Knocks US Crop Rating to 30-Year Low
The USDA cut its condition rating for U.S. winter wheat to a 30‑year low, with only 27% of the crop deemed good‑to‑excellent. The downgrade lifted CBOT July soft red winter wheat to $6.67 per bushel, while soybean and corn futures...
Lingering Volatility in Energy Markets
The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook warns that energy markets will stay volatile as the Iran‑Israel conflict and ongoing threats in the Strait of Hormuz tighten supply. Brent crude is forecast to climb from about $80.7 a barrel in 2024...
BIR: Turkish Steel Buying Sparks Global Ferrous Scrap Rally
Turkey’s steel mills snapped up more than 30 cargoes in late March, sending deep‑sea ferrous scrap prices up about $25 per tonne. The surge lifted U.S. export prices and reinforced European scrap markets despite lingering demand softness. Global recycled‑steel consumption...
Gold, Silver Rates Today: Comex Gold Fell $91/Oz; Silver Down $4 on Inflation Worries, Firm US Dollar
Gold and silver prices fell on May 19 as rising crude oil and a firmer U.S. dollar pressured safe‑haven assets. On the COMEX, gold dropped $91 to $4,467 per ounce while silver slipped $4.1 to $73.34, marking a fourth straight...
Using MetalMiner to Navigate Extreme Copper Volatility
MetalMiner’s Sage and Market Signal platforms help procurement teams cut through copper’s extreme price swings, which have surged 38‑44% over the past five years and oscillated between $3.21 and $6.67 per pound on COMEX. The article highlights the tight correlation...
Trump’s Iran Negotiation Claim Sends Brent to $110.30, WTI to $103.31
U.S. President Donald Trump announced "serious negotiations" with Iran, prompting Brent crude futures to slip 1.6% to $110.30 a barrel and WTI to drop just over 1% to $103.31. The comment eased a recent price surge that had been driven...
'Point of No Return': A Research Firm Says the Oil Market Is Headed for a Dire Turning Point by Early...
HFI Research warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into the first week of June, the oil market could enter a "real panic" as global inventories approach rock‑bottom levels. The firm notes that U.S. crude stocks have already...
EMERGING THESIS CONNECTING OIL, EQUITIES, & PRECIOUS METALS: 230% Buffett Indicator, Oil Inventories Racing Toward Operational Floor, & Why This...
An emerging macro thesis links a looming oil supply crunch—driven by the Iran‑Israel conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—to a historic equity overvaluation, as the Buffett Indicator spikes to 229.9% of U.S. GDP. Global visible oil inventories...
Next Gas Price Spike May Come Just Before Memorial Day
GasBuddy warned that U.S. gasoline prices could spike again just before Memorial Day, as geopolitical tensions revive after a stalled U.S.-China summit on Iran. The national average sits at $4.47 per gallon, up 45.2 cents from a month ago and...
Sugar: India’s Export Ban Reshapes the Supply Balance
ICE Sugar August 2026 futures rose 1.5% to $438.5 per tonne, breaking above both the 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages. India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade imposed an immediate export ban through 30 September 2026, stranding about 1.45 million tonnes of...
Investors Forecast Oil at $85 by 2026, 39% Rise
"On oil prices…FMS investors expect oil to trade at $85/bbl (on a weighted-average basis) by end '26 (vs $84/bbl a month ago); this would be a 39% increase from $61/bbl Brent at the start of 2026. 26% of investors expect...
Hormuz Closure Triggers 2026 Oil Shock
[CHARTBOOK] Strait of Hormuz closure and the oil shock of 2026 - slides for a presentation to the British Institute of Energy Economics: https://t.co/yL3UeeaHjW https://t.co/HWXdNxr2vB
India’s 4% Fuel Price Hike Fuels Rupee Slide and Market Volatility
India raised retail petrol and diesel prices by Rs 3.91 per litre (about 4.4%), the smallest increase among major economies. The move came as the rupee slumped to a fresh all‑time low near ₹96.40 per dollar and equity markets swung wildly, underscoring the...
Oil Inventories May Hit Bottom by Early August
Col. Doug Macgregor on the upcoming oil inventory shortages: “I think we're going to probably reach the bottom of the oil tank at the end of July, beginning of August.” STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/7EcASTro86
Trump Calls Off Planned Iran Strike, Sending Oil Prices Tumbling
U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to the Iran strike slated for Tuesday, prompting Brent crude to slip 1.6% and U.S. equities to rally. The move reshapes defense posturing in the Middle East and fuels speculation about a...
HSBC Lifts 2026 Silver Forecast to $75/Oz but Sets Lower Year‑End Target
HSBC raised its average silver price forecast for 2026 to $75 per troy ounce, up from $68.25, while setting a year‑end target of $70, below current spot levels. The bank attributes the mixed outlook to a rapidly shrinking supply deficit...
Commodity Radar: Aluminium Rally Gathers Pace as Middle East Tensions Squeeze Supplies. Is 45% One-Year Rally Sustainable?
Aluminium prices have surged amid heightened Middle East tensions that have choked Persian Gulf shipping routes. On May 19, MCX futures rose 0.4% to Rs 382.85 per kg (about $4.60), while the LME posted a 2.2% monthly gain, pushing the one‑year rally...
Singapore Secures Full-Year LNG, Cuts Qatar Supply to Zero
Singapore bought enough LNG to last the rest of the year, replacing shipments stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz 🇸🇬💰 Qatar supplied about 40% of Singapore's LNG last year. Now it is zero Singapore can afford procuring expensive LNG from the spot...
What’s Driving Scrap Steel Prices Right Now | Fast Forward Market Briefing Transcript
Scrap steel prices are rising globally, but the gains are driven mainly by cost‑push factors rather than stronger demand. Higher oil, bunker fuel and freight costs linked to the Middle East conflict have increased landed scrap costs, especially for import‑heavy...
Germany’s Electricity Market in Q1 2026: More Renewables, Lower Wholesale Prices – Net Exporter Again for the First Time Since...
Germany’s power market in Q1 2026 saw renewables generate 52.8% of electricity, with offshore wind reaching a record 9.7 TWh. Total generation rose 7% to 126 TWh, while the day‑ahead wholesale price fell 8.7% to €102.17 per MWh (about $112/MWh), below the EU average...
Americans’ AI Hate Wave Might Just Be Gathering Steam: Data Centers Could Hike Power Costs in some States over 50%...
The share of U.S. electricity used by data centers more than doubled from 1.9% in 2018 to 4.4% in 2023, and analysts project it could reach as high as 17% by 2030. This surge could push wholesale power prices up...
EU Braces for Fertiliser Squeeze Triggered by Iran War
The European Union is preparing for a sharp fertilizer shortage as the war involving Iran disrupts key raw‑material exports. Iran accounts for roughly one‑fifth of the EU’s nitrogen‑fertiliser imports, and the conflict has already pushed prices up 30‑40 percent. EU...
China Deals Spark Rally in US Ag Stocks, Commodities
China Agreements Lift Agriculture Stocks and Commodities—Investor optimism that China will start buying more U.S. corn, pork, beef and poultry sent shares in agricultural companies and commodities futures higher on Monday. @PatThomas1318 https://t.co/2WdunRyqoX
Strait of Hormuz Tensions Push Brent to $107.81, Squeeze Global Supply‑Chain Margins
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have lifted Brent crude to $107.81 a barrel, triggering higher marine fuel surcharges, air‑freight rate spikes and tighter working‑capital pressures for manufacturers worldwide. The disruption ripples through energy, freight and network channels, threatening...
The Commodities Feed: Supply Worries Remain as US Extends Russian Oil Waiver
The United States extended a temporary waiver allowing Russian oil floating at sea to be sold until June 17, aiming to steady markets amid heightened Middle East supply disruptions. Oil prices continued to swing within a $6‑per‑barrel range as Iran‑related headlines...
Oil Prices Fall as Trump Postpones Iran Strike, Easing Supply Disruption Fears
Oil prices slipped on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced a delay to a planned strike on Iran, calming concerns of a supply shock in the Gulf. Brent July futures fell more than 2% to $109.15 a barrel, while WTI...
India's Domestic Aluminium Prices Slip 5‑11% as Producers Trim Rates
Domestic aluminium ingot prices in Delhi dropped to INR 310,000/ton ($3,735) and Mumbai to INR 312,000/ton ($3,759), a 5%‑11% week‑on‑week decline after major primary producers cut their P1020 rates. The slide mirrors weaker global LME prices and heightened macro‑economic risk...
Extending Waiver Helps Putin, Costs India Billions
🇮🇳 This morning, prior to today’s decision, I noted in the Daily Energy Report that not extending the waiver is good for India. The waiver more than doubled the price of Russian oil. Without it, Russian oil prices will fall....
East Coast Power Surges as Heat Spurs Emergency Grid Alert
Wholesale power prices on the U.S. East Coast spiked as an intense heat wave hit the region on Tuesday. PJM Interconnection, the grid operator spanning Washington to Chicago, issued a maximum‑generation emergency and load‑management alert, urging generators to prepare for...
The Biofuels Report: Feedstock vs Fuel - Why UCO Isn’t Keeping Pace?
In this episode Anna Prokhorova talks with Arreski of Green Air about why used cooking oil (UCO) prices in Europe have stayed relatively flat despite geopolitical shocks that have driven up other energy markets. They explain that UCO behaves unlike...
THE GOLD BULL MARKET IS UNBROKEN: Q1 Central Bank Buying Hits 244 Tons, Mine Supply Continues to Flatline for 15...
Gold’s secular bull market remains intact as central banks purchased a net 244 tons in Q1, a 3% year‑over‑year rise. Mine output has been flat for 15 years, capping new supply despite rising demand. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East...
Gold Slides to Six‑Week Low as Middle East Tensions Squeeze Safe‑Haven Appeal
Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $4,488.99 per ounce, its weakest level since March 30, after a drone strike in the UAE lifted oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. The sell‑off reflects waning safe‑haven demand and rising expectations of tighter...
The Oil Market Is Reaching a ‘Tipping Point’ that Could Create Problems for Stocks, According to This Wall Street Legend
Wall Street veteran Roger Altman warned that a rapid rise in oil prices could spark a second decade‑long inflation shock, threatening the equity market’s recent resilience. Brent crude jumped 1.4% to over $110 a barrel and WTI rose 1.3% to...
Daily Energy Report
U.S. jet fuel exports surged to a record weekly level in early May 2026, according to the latest weekly export chart. The data, spanning from the start of 2024, shows a pronounced concentration of shipments to South America, which continues...
Crude Oil Soars As U.S. Delays Responding To Iran's Peace Plan
Crude oil prices jumped to $108.69 a barrel, a 3.1% rise, as the United States hesitates to act on Iran's latest peace proposal. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and a U.S. naval blockade continues, limiting oil flow from Arab...
IEA: Global LPG Markets Struggle to Replace Disrupted Supply
The International Energy Agency reports that the disruption of Gulf LPG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has slashed exports from roughly 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025 to just 270,000 barrels per day in April 2026. The United States...
The Iran War Could Trigger a Global Fertilizer Shock
The Iran‑U.S. conflict has halted a sizable share of fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf, cutting off roughly 36% of global urea, 29% of anhydrous ammonia, and significant portions of phosphate fertilizers. The disruption also curtails 20% of the world’s...
Morningstar DBRS Posts Episode 11 of Clarity in Credit Podcast Series: Middle East Conflict and the Uneven Effects on Energy...
Morningstar DBRS’s Clarity in Credit podcast examines how the Middle East conflict is straining Asian energy markets. Roughly one‑fifth of global crude and LNG flow through the Strait of Hormuz, with 83 % destined for Asian buyers, creating both price spikes...
Official: Report that US Has Agreed to Lift Oil Sanctions While Talks Unfold, Are False:
A report that the United States had agreed to lift oil sanctions was quickly denied by a U.S. official, reversing a sharp sell‑off in crude. The clarification sent oil prices up about 2%, trading near $103 after briefly dipping to...