What's happening: Brazil slaps anti‑dumping duties on Chinese steel imports
Brazil’s foreign trade committee approved five‑year anti‑dumping duties on a range of Chinese steel products, imposing tariffs of $323‑$670 per ton on cold‑rolled coil and $285‑$710 per ton on hot‑dip galvanized coil. In 2025 the country imported 202,000 tons of CRC and 1.42 million tons of HDG from China.
Also developing:

South Korean carrier HMM posted a Q4 2025 net profit of KRW 364 billion, a 59.9% plunge from the prior period, while revenues fell 14.2% to KRW 2.71 trillion. The full‑year results showed a 50.3% profit drop to KRW 1.88 trillion as container freight rates slumped 49% to the U.S. West Coast, 42% to the U.S. East Coast and 49% to Europe. HMM warned that a wave of new‑build deliveries will exacerbate oversupply, prompting it to expand its hub‑and‑spoke network and lean on alliance initiatives.

🇻🇪It seems the trading houses that bought the Venezuelan crude from the Trump administration are having trouble marketing the oil globally. Most of the oil is sent to the US. Here in the map, three tankers are going to Europe...
A high-stakes meeting indeed. If Trump yields to Netanyahu's demand to push for a comprehensive deal covering Iran's ballistic missiles programme and support for regional proxies, possible outcomes: -- Drawn-out negotiations under the looming shadow of military action -- Higher chances of a...
China's state‑owned Zijin Mining Group announced an aggressive push to rank among the world’s top three gold and copper producers, primarily through overseas acquisitions. The strategy emphasizes gold and copper as core minerals for future growth while acknowledging heightened geopolitical...
Macro: growth softens, yields rise. Key: sticky CPI, Fed tightening, tight labor. Risks: stagflation, policy error. Trade: short US Treasury duration as real yields climb. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Uranium spot prices surged above $100 per pound in January 2026, the first breach of that level in two years, signaling renewed market vigor. Sprott Asset Management, a major buyer, added 4 million lb to its fund this year, bringing total holdings...
Technical analysis made simple with Kevin Wadsworth of Northstar & Bad Charts. We break down his case for more downside risk (bitcoin to bottom in Q3/Q4?) and the Capital Rotation Event: why many assets look bearish while gold holds strong. https://lnkd.in/gfkuCG2A
United States Antimony and Americas Gold have formed a 51-49 joint venture to construct a hydrometallurgical processing plant in Idaho’s Silver Valley. The facility will treat antimony feed from Americas Gold’s Galena complex and could handle additional sources, aiming to...
S&P Global Ratings upgraded First Quantum Minerals' credit outlook to positive, citing tangible progress toward restarting the Cobre Panama copper mine. The agency now expects the mine to resume operations in the first half of 2026, with a production ramp‑up later...

The frac spread count measures the number of completion crews actively fracturing a well. In the Permian, the frac spread count averaged ~100 crews in 2025, 3% higher than the 2024 average. Yet operators completed a total of ~6,800 wells,...
Vedanta Aluminium has raised its Jharsuguda billet output to 830,000 tonnes per year, adding 250,000 tonnes of new capacity and a 120,000‑tonne Primary Foundry Alloy line. The upgrade uses advanced casting and homogenising technology from Wagstaff and Hertwich, cementing the...

Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...

In December 2025 the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a strategic partnership that gives Washington preferential access to Congolese mineral deposits. The article argues that the next step is building logistics corridors, using the Lobito Corridor—linking...
Zanaga Iron (LON:ZIOC) signed a binding term sheet with Red Arc Minerals for an initial up‑to‑$25 million cash tranche to finance engineering and pre‑production work on its Congolese iron‑ore project. The agreement gives Red Arc a 20% stake in the project’s subsidiary Jumelles,...

BP reported 2025 earnings of $7.5 bn, a 15% drop from the previous year, as crude prices fell roughly 20%. The oil major lifted its cost‑saving goal to $5.5‑$6.5 bn by the end of 2027, up from a $5 bn ceiling, and halted...
The past two weeks saw extreme swings in commodities, with gold tumbling 12% after a record near $5,600, silver down about 30% from its $120 peak, and natural gas plunging 26% on shifting demand forecasts. President Trump’s nomination of former...

The United States announced a new trade pact that lowers its tariff on Bangladeshi apparel from 20% to 19% and grants tariff‑free status to garments made with U.S. cotton and man‑made fibers. In return, Bangladesh will open its market to...
🇮🇳Indian refiners' reluctance to take Russian Urals crude shipments is pushing these discounted cargoes toward buyers like China & others, making them even cheaper in those markets—while the Indian refiners turn to replacement crudes at international prices. An Urals cargo...

OIL MARKET: Washington issues a new general license to allow oilfield-service companies to work in Venezuela — it’s a crucial step to boost oil output in the Latin American country. https://t.co/ozdDE2MiMZ
The agricultural sector faces a perfect storm of policy and market pressures, according to a bipartisan letter signed by former heads of the National Corn, Barley, and Soybean Growers associations. The signatories contend that recent tariffs on farm inputs and...

🇨🇦🛢️🇺🇸 US Canadian crude imports by importing region and crude grade quality Total US plateauing/rolling over Midwest still key Canadian market, but entirely saturated USGC was the pressure valve, but fell back when TMX opened (first went to West Coast, now increasingly China)...

Another month of US import price data shows - again - that foreigners aren't broadly eating Trump's tariffs (bc if they were, prices would have collapsed this year - instead they're up slightly) https://t.co/Dwv9hRwxO1 https://t.co/pF66RuUWjN
Elevra Lithium has signed a non‑binding MOU with Canada’s Mangrove Lithium to off‑take up to 144,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per year from the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec. The supply would begin in 2028, scaling to full...

Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD From Panic to Pause- Breakout to Decide Direction https://t.co/e2vca3B4h2 $XAUUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/BsGu6wpKlh

OUT NOW - @BergMilton on: - clear sign of "climax top" in gold & silver - why he expects a precious metals bear market - S&P 500, Bitcoin, Software + Korean stocks & more Apple🔊https://t.co/bNqmCOVqMV Spotify📽️https://t.co/mnN6Dn02hi 1/3 https://t.co/U3F0Pxojhy

The U.S. military conducted a right‑of‑visit boarding of the Panama‑flagged tanker Aquila II in the Indian Ocean after tracking it from the Caribbean. The vessel, linked to sanctions on Venezuelan and illicit Russian oil, had been operating with its transponder off,...

🇨🇦🏭⛽️ Canadian refineries are running strong in the West, have seen operations slip faster than seasonally normal in Ontario, and have had a bouncing start to the year in Quebec & Eastern Canada. https://t.co/CY8K1qOKIh

US refinery heavy crude sourcing from Canada (red) vs Venezuela (pink), compared to refinery capacity (blue) 2010 on the left, 2024 on the right https://t.co/nKOX5T7tGn
TechMet, the US‑backed critical‑minerals investment vehicle, is seeking up to $200 million of new capital to broaden its portfolio after raising $300 million last year, including $180 million from the Qatar Investment Authority. CEO Brian Menell announced the raise at the 2026 Mining...

US Gulf Coast refineries (PADD3) have continued to grow distillation capacity while dramatically shrinking imports, displacing imported light and medium crudes with domestic light tight oil from the Shale Patch https://t.co/6EezXrbiQL

USDA's estimates for global corn and wheat ending stocks come in below expectations/last month (ending wheat's run of surging each month as harvests surpassed predictions). Soy stocks are up on a massive 180 mmt Brazilian crop. https://t.co/kM88lO1Zbq

USDA pushes Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest to 180 million metric tons. No changes to corn or to Argentina's crops. https://t.co/D2KarYYtVJ

U.S. corn ending stocks decrease from last month as USDA bumps exports to 3.3 billion bushels. Minimal/no changes in wheat and beans. https://t.co/FpMZKyhSPO
I had a great chat with Peter Spina @goldseek at #VRIC. We covered why this still looks like a real gold/silver bull market, why I keep cash ready, and where early-stage opportunity is hiding. Full interview 👇

The Brent (white) and WTI (blue) futures curves are telling rhyming but importantly different stories right now Both have a backwardated front, depressed belly into contango past 2027 But Brent curve seeing steepening prompt backwardation (70c/bbl now) while WTI weakening (20c) https://t.co/5ZyF18ZPDO

All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand report due Tuesday at 11 am CT. On average, analysts don't expect major changes to U.S. and world stocks, though Brazil's corn and soybean crops could increase. U.S. demand will also be...
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
Further thought on BP: Today proves, if ever there was a need of further proof, what a disaster the tenure of Bernard Looney and Murray Auchincloss were for the UK oil major. (...all permited / encouraged by a weak board...)
In view of BP's announcement this morning it's cancelling its $750-million-a-quarter share buyback, let me re-publish yesterday's @Opinion note arguing the British oil major couldn't afford it anymore. It comes down to debt -- lots of debt. https://t.co/23vNRD4Nsw

Will China's coal production hit another record this year? 🇨🇳🪨 China’s main coal industry body warns that imports may fall if Indonesia moves to restrict shipments They see production hitting a record 4.86 billion tons in 2026, but could go higher if...
Russian oil tankers list Singapore as destination amid sanctions and shift to China, LSEG data shows https://t.co/1md44bH813

⛄️⛄️⛄️Sanctions? What sanctions? Where are you going, Zarya? This is going to be the 7th LNG carrier passing the Red Sea carrying Russian LNG. This is a sanctioned tanker carrying LNG from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2. Map from @Kpler

🇲🇽🏭 Mexican refineries are processing more crude right now than any time since 2014. Thanks most obviously to the start-up of the Dos Bocas refinery, but helped along by high utilization across other large facilities. https://t.co/wEpnmiM8He

Gold is back above $5,000. The rally in precious metals is reckless and crazy, but so is global fiscal policy. At some point over the past 20 years, policy makers who believe in keeping public debt stable stopped existing. Makes...

🇧🇷Analysts are expecting upside to Brazil's corn and soybean harvests in USDA's report on Tuesday. 🇦🇷Argentina's crops, on average, are not predicted to move much from the January forecast. https://t.co/D3Jg3BAIYv
📊 Fresh N. American Oil Data 📊 Continental petroleum output hits fresh high-water mark with Canadian supply reaching all-time highs amidst a bounceback in oilsands activity, offsetting flat-ish production in the US and Mexico Check out the Full report: https://t.co/7Xk7El7r1l
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 61 million bushels, up from 56 million bushels the previous week. #oatt
Global LNG market is at risk of being tighter for longer 🚢 ⚠️ 🇶🇦 Qatar is pushing back start of its massive expansion to end 2026 🇺🇸 Golden Pass plant in the US delayed to at least March Supply chain bottlenecks threaten...

🇺🇸U.S. corn & wheat export inspections exceeded all trade estimates last week. Two-thirds of the week's inspected bean cargoes were destined for China, predominantly out of the Gulf. https://t.co/e3b34Q6I3g
Export inspections for the week ending Feb. 5 (mln bu) #corn 51.5, grain sorghum 4.9, #soybeans 41.7, #wheat 21.3 #oatt