Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. The adjustment, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is intended to signal alliance cohesion despite output constraints from the ongoing conflict.
Also developing:
Ford Motor Co. announced it will forgo the traditional one‑week summer shutdown at four U.S. plants, aiming to add more than 50,000 F‑Series trucks in 2026. The move follows aluminum supply disruptions and a 34% dip in February dealer inventory.
Silver is approaching a pivotal technical juncture as it tests the down‑trend line formed over the past two months. Although the 4‑hour stochastic indicator shows overbought conditions, the price remains near the $73.50 resistance level. A breakout above $73.50 could...
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
The latest Catalyst Watch notes that despite the largest oil price shock in history, the U.S. economy remains resilient, buoyed by its status as a net exporter of crude and natural gas. Fed officials cite stable macro data and no...
Iran resumed selective control of the Strait of Hormuz, striking a Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai and permitting only flag‑aligned vessels such as COSCO to transit. The move coincides with a U.S. deployment of thousands of Army paratroopers to the Middle...
Here are the new amounts that fuel will rise by in South Africa, tomorrow. These new amounts already include the temporary R3 deductions in the fuel levy, that was announced by the National Treasury earlier today.
South Africa’s government announced a temporary one‑month cut to the general fuel levy of R3 per litre (about $0.16) to cushion the shock from the Iran‑Israel conflict that has driven Brent crude up 55% in March. Despite the relief, diesel...
Four consecutive weeks of outflows from gold ETFs. This will go down as one of the best opportunities to add to gold at historically oversold levels in my view. Bottoms are always a process, and I do believe we are in the...
The AAA average fuel price is officially over $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-August 2022. Prices are up over $1 since the war in Iran began. Americans are paying $50 a month more in fuel costs. This is a...
European road freight operators are feeling a sharp rise in fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict, which now represents up to 30% of their operating expenses. The International Road Transport Union warns this is a structural shift, not...
Russian Urals crude premiums in Asia climbed to about $8 per barrel versus Brent, up from $5 a week earlier. However, Ukrainian drone attacks have forced the closure of roughly 40% of Russia’s oil‑export capacity, including the 700,000‑bpd Ust‑Luga port....
The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil, is now closed except for limited Iranian shipments, turning speculative price gains into an imminent physical shortage. J.P. Morgan predicts Gulf tankers will stop reaching Asian markets this...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told investors that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that the Fed will “wait and see” on policy, prompting spot gold to rise nearly 1% to $4,560 an ounce and pushing Treasury yields lower. The remarks...
Crude oil markets remain firm as geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz embed a risk premium. OPEC+ announced a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April, while earlier pauses remain in effect. WTI and...
The joint Iran-Israel-U.S. war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude to $115 a barrel and U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon, and triggered jet‑fuel shortages in Europe. Disruptions to oil, helium and plastics are rippling through logistics,...
Gas at the pump just hit $4/gallon. US stepped up attacks on Iran hitting missile depots. Unclear if this will lead to more escalation or signals a peak. Ukraine hit Russian oil production facilities almost 1000km from its border which will...
The United States launched 2,000‑pound bunker‑buster bombs on an Isfahan ammunition depot linked to Iran’s enriched uranium program, while an Iranian drone struck the Kuwaiti‑owned Al Salmi tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose...
Fastmarkets hosted a webinar analyzing South Asia’s edible‑oil market, highlighting India’s structural reliance on imports despite rising domestic production. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are inflating freight and fertilizer costs, pushing food price inflation higher. Forecasts show Indian palm‑oil...
U.S. GAS FUTURESprices for the front-month have slipped well below $3 per million British thermal units to encourage more gas-fired generation and reduce coal combustion. Inflation-adjusted front-month futures have averaged just $3.05 so far in March (21st percentile for all...
Poland’s consumer price index rose to 3.0% year‑on‑year in March, up from 2.1% in February, driven almost entirely by a 15.4% jump in fuel prices. The surge added roughly 0.8 percentage points to headline inflation, while core inflation remained steady...
ICE cocoa futures slipped to $3,165 per tonne, erasing more than 60% of the 2024 peak that topped $8,000. The International Cocoa Organization confirmed a 75,000‑tonne global surplus for 2024/25, the first in four years, while inventories rose to the...
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting reported that weekly average electricity prices fell across most major European markets, with the average dipping below €90 ($103) per MWh in seven countries. Record‑low prices of €0.18/MWh ($0.21) were logged in Portugal and Spain, the latter...
In this episode Tom Reid of Argus discusses the escalating Hormuz crisis with Dubai‑based colleagues Nada Itayim and Bashar al‑Halabi. They examine the U.S. deployment of the USS Tripoli, the strategic importance of Iran’s Kharg Island as a major oil export...
Ukraine’s new‑crop grain prices are trading virtually level with, or even above, old‑crop values – a rare deviation from the usual discount. New‑crop 11.5% wheat is offered at $234 /tonne FOB, just $2 below the $236 /tonne old‑crop level, while new‑crop corn...
Southeast Asian nations are confronting looming fertilizer shortages as global prices have surged sharply following the outbreak of war in Iran. The region relies on more than three‑quarters of its nitrogen‑based fertilizers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making it...
Sharp spikes in Singapore’s fuel prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, have made RON97 petrol nearly twice as expensive as in Malaysia’s Johor Bahru (US$2.64 vs US$1.27 per litre). Singapore drivers, bound by a law requiring tanks to be...
Asian nations are scrambling for Russian crude as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran has cut roughly one‑fifth of global oil supply, especially through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States temporarily eased sanctions on Russian shipments, first for India and...
Oil prices surged in March, with Brent crude climbing over 51% since February and staying above $110 a barrel, marking the largest monthly gain on record. The spike follows the outbreak of war in Iran and heightened threats to the...
China’s domestic wheat auctions under the minimum‑price program have accelerated, with a year‑to‑date clearance rate of 79.5% and a perfect 100% clearance on the March 18 auction. Average sale prices rose to ¥2,441 per tonne (about $354), reflecting strong demand from...
Energy analyst Anas Alhajji warns that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dramatically increased the risk and cost of Gulf oil and LNG, making U.S. exports far more competitive. Insurance shortages force LNG carriers to detour around Africa,...
A Russian tanker, the Anatoly Kolodkin, arrived in Matanzas with 730,000 barrels of Urals crude worth about $84 million, marking the first oil shipment to Cuba since January. President Trump’s decision to allow the delivery breaks a two‑month U.S. fuel blockade,...
Negative food consequences continue to unfold from the US/Israel War on Iran. Asian fertilizer plants are shutting in production.
Solar energy hasnt had a price hike in 4.5 billion years. Meanwhile, oil has shot up over $100/barrel today and will likely set a new record high for a second time in 4 years above $150/barrel.
Maximum risk-off, says @elerianm This isn’t just an energy shock It’s a chain reaction: price → inflation → demand destruction → instability. Markets still don’t see how quickly this cascades. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Inflation #Geopolitics
EU Tells Members to Prepare for 'Prolonged Disruption' to Energy Markets From Iran War https://t.co/oPLV3B8xsa
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
While a unilateral TACO is “bearish” relative to a boots on the ground regional blow-up scenario, it’s not bearish in absolute terms—and very likely still justifies crude prices higher than their current sanguine levels. So, yes, I think the war can...
🇺🇸All trade estimates ahead of USDA's planting intentions & quarterly stocks due on Tuesday at 11am CDT, where U.S. corn & soybean plantings will take the spotlight. Will USDA's survey capture any potential acreage shift owing to the war-driven surge...
China has extended its fuel export ban for another month to April. There is now talk of letting a small amount of fuel out to countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives. But the shipments would be only ~5%-10%...
"Fresh Food Distributors Add Surcharges as Fuel Costs Rise: Delivering salmon, fruits and other perishable foods has become more expensive as the war with Iran pushes up diesel prices." https://t.co/6WK0ANZ5FM https://t.co/alEhgd4FKd
The bigger concern for the US economy isn't gas prices, but diesel prices, as @amoshochstein tells @annmarie just now. They're at the highest since 2022 and bumping up against those highs, at $5.45 a gallon. That's the price that'll pressure...
Iran struck a ship with Kuwaiti oil in a Dubai port and press reports POTUS told aides can consider winding down operation without securing Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains firm. Mkts uncertain. Large euro options at $1.15 expire today...
US gasoline hit $4/gallon according to latest AAA survey but in California, it's $5.89 for gasoline and $7.46 for diesel. https://t.co/bqPOGeuC3B
Excl: Britain’s hub London Heathrow is the *highest-risk* major airport in Europe for jet fuel from April 🚨 as US-Israel war on Iran continues - Heathrow, with 1,300 flights daily, will struggle ‘the most, & the earliest’ with jet fuel as...
CHART OF THE DAY: The US gasoline national average retail price has risen above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, per the @AAA_Travel. It's the kind of price level that typically has triggered political alarms inside the...
UK growers warn of cucumber and tomato shortages as gas prices surge https://t.co/5zu3EIyUuM via @ft
Asia's coal benchmark is at a 17-month high as Middle East conflict chokes gas supplies 🪨⚠️ Australian Newcastle coal futures for April hit $144.25/ton on Monday (the March contract expired Friday at $135.60) Asian countries are expanding use of coal to cut...
Industry pays while coal and gas “cook the books:” Modelling reveals urgent need for Safeguard reset #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/RTGGCweptA https://t.co/i7sUJmUIt0
According to Gemini this figure is now below the y-axis from @Rory_Johnston's chart. 495 Million barrels so a quarter billion barrel draw in a month https://t.co/PEEyloJs9H
Because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Goldman Sachs projects that LNG will be 57% more expensive in Asia by 2028. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. Send the bill for damages to Trump and Netanyahu. https://t.co/zGDQ6V7G5Z
