Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
France Introduces Regulations to Slash Chinese Rare Earth Dependence
France announced a package of regulations designed to reduce the country's dependence on Chinese rare earths. The measures, announced on May 5, 2026, require tighter reporting, diversified sourcing and incentives for domestic processing, signaling a major shift in European mineral policy.
Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: May 5, 2026
U.S. grain and livestock futures closed mixed on May 5, 2026. Corn slipped 5.75 cents to $4.80 per bushel while soybeans fell 11.25 cents to $12.11. Livestock prices rose, with live cattle up $1.47 to $253.22 and feeder cattle gaining $5.70 to $372.30. The...
REMX: Why Rare Earths Are Becoming The New Oil
The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) gives investors direct exposure to the escalating U.S.-China rare‑earth rivalry. The author recommends it as a roughly 5% satellite position in aggressive portfolios because of its concentration and asymmetric China risk....
Ero Copper Posts $108.8 M Q1 Profit as Copper Demand Surges
Ero Copper Corp announced first‑quarter 2026 net income of $108.8 million, a 36% jump from a year earlier, while revenue more than doubled to $263.2 million. The results reflect record copper output, higher gold concentrate sales and aggressive debt reduction as the...
2026 Ethanol Exports Remain on Pace to Shatter 2025 Record
U.S. ethanol exports in the first quarter of 2026 reached 639.8 million gallons, a 20% increase over the 2025 record pace. March alone saw 217.8 million gallons shipped, up 4% from February, driven by strong demand from Canada, the European Union and...
Fed's Barr Says Gas Prices Could 'Bleed' Into Inflation
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr warned that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict could push gasoline and fertilizer prices higher, potentially feeding broader inflation. He noted that U.S. natural‑gas markets are relatively insulated because they are not fully integrated into global markets,...
Daily Energy Report
Goldman Sachs warned global oil inventories are sliding toward an eight‑year low, now around 101 days of demand and projected to fall to 98 days by the end of May. The decline follows geopolitical shocks, including Iran’s attack on Hormuz...
Energy Market Outlook: Midstream Resilience & the Nuclear Renaissance
Energy has become the best‑performing sector in the S&P 500 in 2026, delivering over 30% total‑return as oil prices surged amid Middle‑East tensions. Midstream operators and master‑limited partnerships, insulated from commodity swings, are offering yields near 7% and are positioned to...
Nepal to Procure 80,000 Tonnes of Fertiliser From India as Iran Disrupts Global Supply Chains
Nepal will buy 80,000 tonnes of fertilizer from India under a government‑to‑government agreement to offset global supply shocks caused by the West Asia war. The shipment comprises 60,000 tonnes of urea and 20,000 tonnes of di‑ammonium phosphate, funded by a...
Tell Us How High Gas Prices Have Affected Your Finances
Gas prices in the United States have surged to nearly $4.50 per gallon, about $1 higher than a year ago, following the outbreak of war with Iran. The New York Times is soliciting reader submissions to gauge how the spike...
Aluminum Jumps the Most in Three Weeks as US-Iran Truce Holds
Aluminum surged 2.1% on the London Metal Exchange, marking its strongest intraday gain in three weeks as the US‑Iran cease‑fire held steady. The rally follows heightened geopolitical tension after missile strikes in the Persian Gulf, but officials confirmed the truce...
Crude Oil Plunges Amid U.S. Measures To Restart Traffic Across The Strait Of Hormuz
Crude oil prices tumbled on Tuesday after the United States launched “Project Freedom,” a naval operation aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The move eased supply‑risk fears, sending June WTI down $3.80, or 3.57%, to $102.62 a barrel. U.S....
Super Dispatch: Diesel Price Volatility Strains Auto Transport Margins
Super Dispatch's Fuel and Transport Cost Tracker shows diesel prices hovering around $5.35 per gallon, about $1.80 higher than a year ago, and spiking to $5.64 in a single week. The surge has lifted auto‑transport costs by 16.7% to $0.98...
The Iran War Sent Jet Fuel Prices Sky-High. Here's What Air Travelers Should Know
Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the start of 2024, a surge tied to the Iran conflict that has already forced Spirit Airlines into bankruptcy. Delta announced it will stop providing snacks and drinks on domestic flights under 350...
Global Oil Reserves Plunge at Record Pace as Middle East War Strains Supplies
Global oil inventories shrank by a record‑fast 12 million barrels in a single week, the steepest drawdown since 2020. The ongoing Middle East conflict has knocked roughly 1 million barrels per day of regional output off the market, tightening supplies further. In...
Gold Advances As "Project Freedom" Enters Second Day, Easing Oil Prices
Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday, climbing to $4,570.60 per ounce as the United States launched “Project Freedom” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for neutral vessels. The operation, backed by roughly 100 aircraft, 15,000 troops and guided‑missile destroyers, eased oil‑price...
The War in Iran Is Making Coffee Production More Expensive
The U.S.-Iran war is driving a sharp rise in fertilizer costs, pushing the International Coffee Organization’s price index up 2.3%. World Bank forecasts a 31% jump in fertilizer prices for 2026, with urea soaring 60%, threatening the 2026/27 coffee harvest....
End of Open Consultation on Methodology for Ferro-Molybdenum In-Whs Rotterdam; Molybdic Oxide In-Whs Rotterdam, Busan
Fastmarkets closed its open consultation on April 27 for the pricing methodology of ferro‑molybdenum (65% Mo) and drummed molybdic oxide (57% Mo) in Rotterdam and Busan. The review covered price specifications, calculation formulas, and publication frequency to align with IOSCO...
Oil Prices Jump After Iran Strikes UAE Fujairah Facility, Sparking Energy Supply Chain Concerns
Iran's missile attack on the Fujairah energy facility in the United Arab Emirates pushed crude benchmarks sharply higher, prompting a risk‑off market shift and heightened worries about the fragility of global oil logistics. The move lifted inflation expectations, pressured Treasury...
U.S. Futures Slip 0.2% as Brent Crude Jumps Over 5% on Renewed Iran Tension
U.S. equity index futures slipped 0.2% and Brent crude surged more than 5% to over $113 a barrel on Monday, after Iran’s Fars agency claimed missiles hit a U.S. patrol boat and President Trump announced a “Project Freedom” escort for...
EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, 5 May 2026
On May 5, 2026 the U.S. Energy Information Administration released its latest gasoline and diesel price update, presenting regional price data for April 20, April 27 and May 4. Nationally, regular gasoline hovered around $3.98 per gallon, while on‑highway diesel climbed to roughly $4.45, marking...
Indian Rupee Hits Record Low 95.33 as Oil Prices Surge Amid US‑Iran Stalemate
The Indian rupee slid to a historic low of 95.33 per dollar on Thursday, driven by soaring oil prices and hawkish Fed signals as the U.S.-Iran stalemate drags on. The drop also pushed Indian government bond yields higher, echoing stress...
War Puts LNG Future in the Spotlight
Asian imports of liquefied natural gas plunged to a seven‑year low as the Middle East war cut roughly a quarter of global LNG supply. The shortage drove spot prices to multi‑year highs and sparked a scramble for the limited cargoes...
Gulf Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher and Deepwater Explorers Into the Red
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have driven crude oil prices up, sparking a rally in global commodity markets. At the same time, deepwater producer Kosmos Energy posted a widened first‑quarter...
Wheat Crops Wither, Herds Thin as Spring Drought Deepens
An intense spring drought now grips nearly 90% of Nebraska and Oklahoma, pushing the Great Plains toward record‑low winter wheat conditions and forcing cattle producers to confront soaring feed costs. USDA data show only 30% of the U.S. winter wheat...
S&P Global: Oil Markets Face 'Double Depletion'
S&P Global warns that oil markets are entering a ‘double depletion’ phase, where demand is falling while inventories are being drawn down sharply. Global liquids demand in Q2 2026 is projected to be about 5 million barrels per day lower than...
Cocoa’s Recovery Rally Faces a Growing Wall of Supply
ICE Cocoa July 2026 contract closed at $3,596 per tonne, a 4.81% weekly gain, pushing the price above its 50‑day moving average for the first time in months. The rally occurs despite a projected global surplus—ICCO expects a 75,000‑tonne surplus...
Western Heat Risk Builds as Weak Hydro Raises Late Summer Natural Gas Price Upside
Forecasts indicate a hotter‑than‑normal summer across the western United States, while a weaker hydropower season erodes the traditional electricity cushion. The combination is expected to shift natural‑gas‑fired power plants from shoulder‑season balance to tighter, more volatile operations by late summer....
Gold: Differences of Opinion
MacleodFinance explains why gold prices have stayed flat despite rising geopolitical risk and oil prices. In Western markets, higher oil fuels inflation and pushes interest rates up, making the cost of holding gold higher and the dollar more attractive. Asian...
Rockies Natural Gas Discount Narrows as West Pull Strengthens
Mild winters have left the Western U.S. natural‑gas market oversupplied, pushing prices toward the $1.00/MMBtu level. Recent data show the Malin‑to‑Opal spread hitting a one‑month high, indicating the discount between the two hubs is narrowing. A hotter-than‑average spring and summer...
Will the US Serra Verde Acquisition Help Break China’s Rare Earth Monopoly?
On April 20, USA Rare Earth announced a $2.8 billion acquisition of Brazil’s Serra Verde Group, backed by a $565 million loan from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. The deal includes a 15‑year government‑backed offtake vehicle that will channel all of Serra Verde’s rare‑earth ore...
Beef Downturn Hits Tyson and Local Economies as Prices Rise and Supply Shrinks
Tyson Foods reported a 13.1% drop in beef volumes for Q2, even after raising prices 11.5% to counter a shrinking cattle herd. The company said it will reverse the beef loss in the back half of 2024 by tightening plant...
Rising Oil and Rates Signal Impending Housing Collapse
Oil, rates, and housing – here's what I see coming: • Oil to $120-150 by fall • 10-year yield at 4.43% and climbing • Housing market about to get crushed • Higher fuel = recessionary You're spending the same but getting less." oil #economy #recession #housing...
Rising Gas Prices Spark Imminent Food Inflation Wave
This is a concerning chart but grounded in reality. The surge in gasoline prices is likely leading commodity grains. The next wave of food inflation is already here. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ZOCR2jO7nt
US Steel HRC Supply Fears Get ‘No Comment’ From Mills, Legislators
U.S. hot‑rolled coil (HRC) buyers are confronting acute short‑term supply constraints as imports plunged 57% year‑on‑year to just 215,000 tonnes in the first four months of 2026, while spring maintenance outages kept at least three domestic mills out of the...
Beef Imports Surge to Record $13.75B, up 28% Yo
"[B]eef imports in total are exploding at $4.5 billion through March, up 28% from a year ago. That comes after record for beef imports at $13.75 billion in 2025, up nearly $2.5 billion from a year earlier." https://t.co/M9mSqQvOq6
Physical Oil Premiums Collapse as Brent Steadies Near $115
Counterintuitive perhaps, but the physical oil market appears to be calming. Dated Brent is hovering at ~$115 a barrel, and physical differentials have narrowed massively, with grades offered at ~$3 a barrel premium to the benchmark vs the ~$30 a...
DHL CEO Flags Jet Fuel Supply Constraints in Asia
DHL Group’s CEO Tobias Meyer warned that jet‑fuel shortages are tightening at several Asian airports, a fallout from the Iran‑related disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. While DHL’s major hubs such as Leipzig enjoy reliable fuel supplies,...
Hormuz Closed, Yet European Gas Prices Remain Low
Hormuz remains shut. But European gas prices are still below the March high Futures fell Tuesday after the US downplayed the prospects of a return to active war with Iran (but Hormuz still shut) Weaker Asian demand has also helped to reduce...
Complex Ranching Economics Drive Today’s High Beef Prices
Why is beef so expensive right now? The complicated economics of cattle ranching create pain points at key stages of production https://t.co/0RQPkADSrY
Beef and Lamb Driving Meat Inflation
The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers reported that April 2026 meat and poultry prices rose 0.65% month‑on‑month, driven primarily by beef and lamb. Beef prices increased 1.16% MoM, with roasting joints surging 9.57%, while lamb rose 1.04% MoM, led by...
Energy Loss Triggers Partial Tank Drain Update
(PREMIUM) "Tactical Update: May 5, 2026 - Losing Energy..." Emptying (some of) the tank- via The Lyons Share https://t.co/YN2guyRwrE https://t.co/7w0WHrePt0
Global Oil Liftings Rebound to Pre‑war Levels.
CHART OF THE DAY: Impressive chart via @Vortexa. On a 7-day moving average, global oil liftings (into tankers) have **recovered to their pre-war level** due to a surge in liftings in the Americas. (Of course, that's helped by massive stock...
South Africa: Late Mandarin Exports Stabilize in 2026 with Slight Drop
South Africa’s late‑mandarin export season for 2026 showed a modest year‑on‑year decline, signaling a move toward stabilization after several years of rapid growth. While the flagship Nadorcott/Tango variety slipped 1.6% to 30.5 million 15‑kg boxes, the Leanri variety expanded 13% to...
World Bank Predicts 76% Silver Price Surge by 2026
The World Bank projects that on average, silver prices will be 76% higher in 2026 than they were in 2025 average. STAY LONG SILVER or GET LONG. https://t.co/YrIRX2T0EV
Weaker Demand Pressures Singapore April Bunker Prices
Singapore's April bunker market saw conventional fuel prices adjust amid weaker downstream demand and shifting geopolitical risks. VLSFO fell 16% from March to $746.98/tonne but remained 52% higher year‑on‑year, while backwardation narrowed to $15/tonne. HSFO rose 55% YoY to $665.11/tonne...
Gasoline Prices Jump Across All 50 States
GasBuddy’s latest data shows gasoline prices rose in every state, with the national average reaching $4.42 per gallon—a 38.2‑cent weekly increase and 32.6 cents higher than a month ago. The median price sits at $4.29, while the top 10% of...
Oil Prices Jump as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Escalate, Dragging Canadian Markets Lower
Oil prices surged past $110 a barrel after renewed fighting in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. to pledge naval assistance and Iran to push back. The spike knocked the S&P/TSX Composite down 0.74%, while energy stocks led the...
Iran Flare‑up Pushes Asian Stocks Lower as Oil Spikes Above $115
Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran sent crude oil above $115 a barrel, prompting mixed moves across Asian exchanges. India’s Sensex fell 251 points to 77,017.79, Australian shares opened lower, while markets in Japan, South Korea and mainland...
Antero Warns of Propane Shortages as Global Buyers Scramble to Buy NGLs Amid Iran War
Antero Resources reports a sharp increase in international demand for its natural gas liquids as buyers seek to replace Middle East supplies disrupted by the Iran‑Israel conflict. The company warns that propane inventories could become constrained by early summer, pushing...