Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
Economists note February CPI showed modest food price shifts—beef remains high while chicken and eggs fell. A new conflict with Iran has driven Texas gasoline up 90 cents, a 38% jump, foreshadowing higher March CPI. The war threatens the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of global oil, which could lift fertilizer and transport costs. Analysts warn price caps may backfire, even as electric‑vehicle adoption grows.
At CERA Week in Houston, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told U.S. oil executives that the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict is likely to keep crude prices elevated, creating a favorable market for American shale producers. The war has already pushed Brent above $90...
Venezuela’s oil production climbed to roughly 1.1 million barrels per day in March, up from about 942,000 bpd in January. The rebound reflects easing U.S. sanctions, better access to diluents and a modest return of export flows, bringing output back to pre‑disruption...
Brent crude: - Flat price (white) - Prompt futures timespread (blue) - Dated-to-Frontline (DFL) spread (orange) All off their highs, but DFLs are both closest to the "real" spot market and they're trading nearest the high of the lot. In relative terms DFLs didn't get...
Soybean futures rose on fund buying and anticipation of the EPA's upcoming blending mandate announcement, buoyed by optimism from Middle East peace talks and a scheduled Trump‑China meeting. A recent Brazil‑China phytosanitary agreement is expected to smooth soybean shipments that...
U.S. grain futures closed higher on March 25, with May corn edging up to $4.67 per bushel and soybeans climbing to $11.71. Livestock prices slipped, as April live cattle fell to $234.42 and feeder cattle slipped modestly, while lean hogs...
A sudden $580 million rush of oil futures contracts hit the market minutes before President Donald Trump announced a five‑day cease‑fire on attacks against Iran, prompting the CFTC to launch an insider‑trading investigation. The spike coincided with a 10% drop in...
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. placed the Philippines under a one‑year national energy emergency and announced a plan to purchase one million barrels of oil to extend the country's fuel stock to about 45 days. The move follows a sharp price...
Oil prices up 20% in weeks. 1 day alone added 9%. In 1973, a supply shock like this wiped 45% off the stock market and sent gold up over 2000%. I have spent 55 years building an alternative framework for understanding how...
Natural gas futures rose on Wednesday after earlier declines, driven by heightened geopolitical risk following Tehran's rejection of a U.S. peace proposal. The market also absorbed bullish signals from rising LNG feed‑gas demand and expectations of tighter storage balances. Despite...
UK businesses are confronting an energy price shock, with the nation already holding the highest industrial electricity rates among G7 nations. Cornwall Insight forecasts electricity could jump 10‑30 % and gas 25‑80 %, pushing a typical 12‑month electricity contract to about £578,000...
The market prices a ceasefire and full-scale war simultaneously. Diplomatic pause: oil -10%. Iran denial: oil +4%. SPY -0.80%. Same week. Opposite pricing. 48 hours apart. Beneath the whipsaw, TLT keeps bleeding. Spreads widen. Copper stays down 10% monthly. Breadth broken. Geopolitical noise drives...
Dutch underground gas storage fell to roughly 6.11% of capacity on March 23, 2026, marking the lowest level for this time of year since at least 2010. The drawdown outpaces the broader EU average, which remains near 20%, and is...
Asian ocean carriers are currently managing bunker fuel supplies, but tightening inventories signal a looming shortage if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Global fuel suppliers warn that prolonged closure could trigger worldwide deficits. To cushion the impact, operators are...
India’s LPG crisis following closure of the Strait of Hormuz The war between the United States and Iran and closure of Strait of Hormuz has become a critical threat to the supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India relies on for...
Light Crude Futures $CL_F $USO 2 hour chart on left 30 minute on right Oil had been holding support btwn 94-92 until the 🟠"taco tweet" removed some of the perceived risk in oil It dropped down to the anchor from the beginning of the...
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened a formal inquiry after a sudden, undisclosed spike in oil futures trading volume occurred minutes before President Donald Trump's televised statement on Iran. The probe comes as the Middle‑East conflict squeezes supply, with...
Whereas more WindWaterSolar correlates with lower electricity prices worldwide, more fossil fuels, nuclear, and bioenergy each independently correlates with higher electricity prices.
For every $1 increase at the pump, the typical American household spends an extra $530 per year. Gas is costing Americans $300 million more a day than before the war. My latest newsletter, "This War Will Make You Poorer" (bit.ly/ThisWarWillMakeYouPoorer),...
Invesco's Solar ETF (TAN) is up 12% year‑to‑date as oil‑price turbulence from the Iran conflict rekindles investor appetite for clean‑energy exposure. The rally mirrors a similar surge after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, while SolarEdge Technologies, the ETF’s top holding,...
CHART OF THE DAY: The idea was that Brent/WTI was going to catch up higher towards where Oman/Dubai crude was trading (>$150 a barrel) Instead, we are witnessing Oman/Dubai crude plunging >$45 a barrel in a single day to ~$110 a...
The renewed Iran‑Israel conflict has driven Brent crude above $100 a barrel, igniting inflation concerns in oil‑importing emerging economies. The price spike has knocked Asian equity indices and currencies lower while also tightening global gas markets.
Cool, cool, cool... "At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers ... the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern...
Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East has driven jet‑fuel prices to record highs, forcing airlines such as Wizz Air to project roughly $55 million in losses. The shock underscores aviation’s exposure to fossil‑fuel volatility and accelerates interest in sustainable alternatives. Emerging technologies...
The USDA reported that U.S. pork belly stocks rose to 44.9 million pounds in February, a 4.5% increase from January but still 7.6% below a year earlier. Wheat and corn futures gained after President Trump signaled a pause in Iran...
Every normie feels in their gut that oil should go higher. And every oil expert seems to think that every day we get closer to the true disaster scenario. So why is it that oil is not only below the...
Gold plunged 16% after the war started. It should have surged on inflation fears and geopolitical chaos. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/sTSAg9gVNz
The West Asia war that began on 29 February 2026 has pushed global petrol prices to an average of $1.41 per litre, with the United States seeing a 30.2% jump to $1.13/L. Australia leads the surge at 42% higher, while Sri Lanka’s...
The Philippines have declared a NATIONAL STATE OF EMERGENCY. The Philippines imports 98% of oil from the gulf and gas prices have DOUBLED since the breakout of the Iran war. THE PHILIPPINES SHOULD SEND THE BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/bNdU01nHJI
Delighted to meet 🇯🇵’s Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry Ryosei Akazawa @ryosei_akazawa We spoke about how the Middle East war is impacting oil, gas & other commodities, with particular challenges for Asia – and how we can work together...
Grain and oilseed inventories are not unusually high when measured against current use. U.S. corn ending stocks represent 13% of 2025 projected use, yielding a 12.9% stock‑use ratio—close to the post‑1997 average. World grain‑oilseed stock‑use ratios sit at 26.1%, only...
The price bar in Silver today is something I call a "head shot." Head shots are often a sign of volume overcoming demand and suggestive of further weakness. I am looking for a tradable bottom in the support zone (yellow) $SI_V...
My BNN Bloomberg conversation from earlier today for those who missed it. Talked about the state and trajectory of the Iran War, the growing physical-sentiment disconnect in oil markets, and how nothing really matters unless traffic through the Strait of Hormuz...
Maharashtra announced a high‑level, multi‑department panel to address the state’s chronic onion price glut and farmer distress. The committee, led by senior officials from Agriculture, Finance and Marketing, will propose immediate relief measures and a two‑to‑three‑month roadmap for long‑term sector...
National average gas prices are now within cents of the pivotal $4-per-gallon threshold, which many elected officials would prefer to avoid in a midterm election year. https://t.co/Ow36WJehg7
🚨Hormuz Crisis goes global: Europe is heading for energy shortages, massive price spikes, and deeper reliance on Russian energy. 🚨What is next for US commercial crude inventories after the SPR release? Daily Energy Report https://t.co/W33F3aHN9V
Gold demand in Kashmir stayed muted despite a recent dip in prices ahead of the wedding season. Traders expected a surge as gold corrected, but footfall in stores remained thin and buyers opted for lighter pieces. Consumers are favoring 1‑gram...
A lot of oil importers have been intervening pretty heavily to keep their currencies from depreciating and adding to the oil price shock. Turkey is one of the more interesting cases, as its fx reserves remain limited 1/2 https://t.co/zsikWfgTxD
Coming to terms with the fact that no matter how the Iran War and Hormuz crisis ends it’s going to be far harder going forward to scoff at claims that the paper market isn’t pricing in physical oil market realities. Catastrophic...
“An official from an Asian or African country who needs urea before the monsoon does not discuss the Ukrainian question. He calls the Kremlin, and the Kremlin picks up,” she said. On how the US war with Iran is strengthening Russia...
Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea have been ramping up rapidly and are getting close to the five million BPD target https://t.co/SkPyeLTXbO https://t.co/nmq5Kt89xT
"There are a couple gaps on the upside that need to be filled... that might have been a decent low for a period of time here in gold and the gold miners." 🎙️@GuyAdami | $GLD $GDX https://t.co/ZVXyArkxOD
Markets don’t really care who controls the Strait of Hormuz as long as the oil starts to flow again — “give markets what they want” doesn’t necessarily mean a US win.
UK businesses face a jump of up to 80% in gas bills on Iran war https://t.co/THZNalojSw via @EamonFarhat https://t.co/vr4PvVdKFc
Copper down 10% this month. Gold at $4,550+. Same planet. Completely different signals. One screams recession. One screams fear. $CPER $GLD https://t.co/kChEJn36lH
🛑So let me get this straight: President Trump waived sanctions on Russian oil at sea and released millions of barrels from the SPR to bring oil prices down. Then Zelensky struck Russian oil ports and terminals, tightening oil supply and pushing...
Quite the chart from @axios on suspected crude market front-running ahead of Trump’s major Iran War proclamations. https://t.co/lZY1JkMKCp
Today's Opening Bell Iran Talks Stall- Gold Rallies, Oil Slides, USD Holds (asset chaptered) https://t.co/TmUUL0psrk
Heads up that I'll be LIVE on @BNNBloomberg to talk oil markets and the [??end of??] the Iran War this morning at 11:15am ET. https://t.co/bqG3IGwkQS
$SLV Daily. Working thesis for precious metals & miners continues to be a wide range into spring months. Here, silver knocking out range parameters. https://t.co/r9lNUdiS1n
